Wilmington Hammerheads
ECNL Boys · Mid-Atlantic BU17 · 13 teams · Wilmington Hammerheads (all teams)
Next game — Sat Jan 30, 10:00 AM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.7 against · 2.26 expected points)
| Season so far | Wilmington Hammerheads | NCFC Youth |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-1 | 0-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W | L L |
| Biggest win | 6–2 vs Arlington Soccer Association | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Fairfax Virginia Union | 1–3 vs Fairfax Virginia Union |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.60 | -0.61 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.13 | +0.13 |
Common opponents: Arlington Soccer Association — we 6–2; they 2–3. Fairfax Virginia Union — we 1–2; they 1–3.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
NCFC Youth concede 3.0/game; worst result 1–3 vs Fairfax Virginia Union.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
What a win does
Beach FC sit 5th on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above Beach FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the NCFC Youth game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Wilmington Hammerheads – NCFC Youth) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Jan 25 – Sun Jan 31); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 2nd▲ up 4 | 2nd▲ up 4 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 2nd▲ up 4 | 3rd▲ up 3 |
| Draw 1.33 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 22%
- 2nd 19%
- 3rd 15%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 10%
- 6th 7%
- 7th 7%
- 8th 4%
- 9th 3%
- 10th 1%
- 11th 1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond United | 2.14 (+0.64) | 1st (1.91) | 36 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 2 | Fairfax Virginia Union | 2.00 (+0.50) | 4th (1.70) | Win next game |
| 3 | Charlotte SA Academy | 1.75 (+0.25) | 5th (1.67) | A point next game |
| 4 | Arlington Soccer Association | 1.75 (+0.25) | 6th (1.59) | A point next game |
| 5 | Beach FC | 1.71 (+0.21) | 3rd (1.76) | A point next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 4 teams
Paths of results that link Wilmington Hammerheads to NCFC Youth through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.16 · 12th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 30 10:00 AM |
NCFC Youth 13th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home NCINO Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.26 | 1.75 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 13 11:00 AM |
Richmond United 1st · 4-3-0 · GD +5 |
Home NCINO Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.45 | 1.68 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 14 09:00 AM |
Beach FC 5th · 3-3-1 · GD +7 |
Home NCINO Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.30 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 02:00 PM |
NCFC Youth 13th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
WRAL |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
3–1 | 1.98 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Charlotte SA 12th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
3–2 | 1.93 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Charlotte SA Academy 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.34 | 1.66 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 09:00 AM |
Highland FC 11th · 0-0-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Buncombe County Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
3–2 | 1.95 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM |
Charlotte SA 12th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home NCINO Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.22 | 1.74 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 PM |
NCFC Youth Academy 8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
NC Fusion 9th · 0-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.66 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Skyline Elite 10th · 1-0-5 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.12 | 1.75 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM |
VDA 7th · 2-2-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Ali Krieger Sports Complex (AKSC) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.69 | 1.74 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM |
Charlotte SA Academy 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +3 |
Home NCINO Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.67 | 1.74 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 11:00 AM |
Highland FC 11th · 0-0-2 · GD -2 |
Home NCINO Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.24 | 1.77 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 12:00 PM |
NCFC Youth Academy 8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Home NCINO Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.80 | 1.77 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 11:00 AM |
NC Fusion 9th · 0-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home NCINO Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 1.78 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond United | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | DWDWW | +0.01 | -0.10 | 82% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach FC · Sat Oct 31 at Skyline Elite · Sat Nov 7 at VDA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Fairfax Virginia Union | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 | 2.00 | LLWWW | +0.09 | -0.06 | 56% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at VDA · Sun Nov 8 at Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Dec 13 vs Skyline Elite See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Charlotte SA Academy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 | 1.75 | DLWW | -0.23 | -0.07 | 51% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 at Highland FC · Sun Jan 24 vs Charlotte SA See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Arlington Soccer Association | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 14 | +0 | 14 | 1.75 | WLDLW | +0.07 | -0.04 | 37% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Jan 9 at VDA · Sun Jan 24 at Skyline Elite See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Beach FC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 | 1.71 | DWLWD | -0.12 | -0.03 | 66% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 at Skyline Elite · Sun Nov 8 at VDA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.13 | -0.16 | 68% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Jan 30 vs NCFC Youth · Sat Feb 13 vs Richmond United · Sun Feb 14 vs Beach FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | VDA | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 | 1.33 | LDWLW | +0.03 | +0.02 | 8% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Oct 31 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Richmond United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | NCFC Youth Academy | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 5 | 1.25 | DDLW | +0.33 | -0.18 | 19% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Skyline Elite · Sat Oct 31 at VDA · Sun Jan 17 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | NC Fusion | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.60 | -0.13 | 10% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Jan 16 vs Skyline Elite · Sun Jan 17 vs VDA · Sat Jan 30 vs NCFC Youth Academy See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Skyline Elite | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | +0.08 | +0.11 | 0% | 12.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Highland FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | -0.47 | +0.06 | 1% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sat Feb 13 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Charlotte SA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.60 | -0.08 | 2% | 10.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sun Nov 22 vs Highland FC · Sat Jan 16 vs VDA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | NCFC Youth | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.13 | -0.01 | 1% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Jan 24 at NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Jan 30 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Feb 6 at Charlotte SA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.