NC Fusion
ECNL Boys · Mid-Atlantic BU17 · 13 teams · NC Fusion (all teams)
Next game — Sat Jan 16, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.0 against · 1.92 expected points)
| Season so far | NC Fusion | Skyline Elite |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-1 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | D L | L W L L L |
| Biggest win | — | 2–1 at Highland FC |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Richmond United | 0–3 at Beach FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.13 | -0.79 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.60 | +0.08 |
Common opponents: Beach FC — we 1–1; they 0–3.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Skyline Elite average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 3 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 56% / draw 23% / loss 21%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
NCFC Youth Academy sit 8th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 0.50.A point moves us above NCFC Youth Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Skyline Elite game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NC Fusion – Skyline Elite) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Jan 11 – Sun Jan 17); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.33 PPG |
7th▲ up 2 | 8th▲ up 1 | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.33 PPG |
7th▲ up 2 | 8th▲ up 1 | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.67 PPG |
9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.33 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 2 | 12th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 3%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 14%
- 9th 18%
- 10th 15%
- 11th 10%
- 12th 5%
- 13th 3%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.72 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond United | 2.14 (+1.64) | 1st (1.91) | 38 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 2 | Fairfax Virginia Union | 2.00 (+1.50) | 4th (1.70) | 35 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 3 | Charlotte SA Academy | 1.75 (+1.25) | 5th (1.67) | 31 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 4 | Arlington Soccer Association | 1.75 (+1.25) | 6th (1.59) | 31 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 5 | Beach FC | 1.71 (+1.21) | 3rd (1.76) | 30 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 6 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 1.50 (+1.00) | 2nd (1.78) | 26 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 7 | VDA | 1.33 (+0.83) | 8th (1.32) | A point next game |
| 8 | NCFC Youth Academy | 1.25 (+0.75) | 7th (1.44) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link NC Fusion to Skyline Elite through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.13 · 11th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 16 TBD |
Skyline Elite 10th · 1-0-5 · GD -8 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–0 | 1.92 | 0.97 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 17 TBD |
VDA 7th · 2-2-2 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.11 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
NCFC Youth Academy 8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.39 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 TBD |
Charlotte SA Academy 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.23 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Charlotte SA 12th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.73 | 1.26 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
NCFC Youth Academy 8th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Charlotte SA Academy 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.97 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Highland FC 11th · 0-0-2 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.46 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Fairfax Virginia Union 2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
James W Robinson HS · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.06 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Arlington Soccer Association 4th · 4-2-2 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.14 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
NCFC Youth 13th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.50 | 1.24 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Wilmington Hammerheads 6th · 1-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.14 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Charlotte SA 12th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.45 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
NCFC Youth 13th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.78 | 1.28 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 11:00 AM |
Wilmington Hammerheads 6th · 1-0-1 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
NCINO Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Highland FC 11th · 0-0-2 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.75 | 1.28 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond United | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | DWDWW | +0.01 | -0.10 | 83% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Beach FC · Sat Oct 31 at Skyline Elite · Sat Nov 7 at VDA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Fairfax Virginia Union | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 | 2.00 | LLWWW | +0.09 | -0.06 | 56% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at VDA · Sun Nov 8 at Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Dec 13 vs Skyline Elite See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Charlotte SA Academy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 | 1.75 | DLWW | -0.23 | -0.07 | 49% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 at Highland FC · Sun Jan 24 vs Charlotte SA See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Arlington Soccer Association | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 14 | +0 | 14 | 1.75 | WLDLW | +0.07 | -0.04 | 36% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Jan 9 at VDA · Sun Jan 24 at Skyline Elite See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Beach FC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 | 1.71 | DWLWD | -0.12 | -0.03 | 66% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 at Skyline Elite · Sun Nov 8 at VDA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 3 | 1.50 | WL | +0.13 | -0.16 | 68% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Jan 30 vs NCFC Youth · Sat Feb 13 vs Richmond United · Sun Feb 14 vs Beach FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | VDA | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 | 1.33 | LDWLW | +0.03 | +0.02 | 9% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Fairfax Virginia Union · Sat Oct 31 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Richmond United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | NCFC Youth Academy | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 5 | 1.25 | DDLW | +0.33 | -0.18 | 21% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Skyline Elite · Sat Oct 31 at VDA · Sun Jan 17 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | NC Fusion | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.60 | -0.13 | 9% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Jan 16 vs Skyline Elite · Sun Jan 17 vs VDA · Sat Jan 30 vs NCFC Youth Academy See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Skyline Elite | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | +0.08 | +0.11 | 0% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Richmond United · Sat Nov 7 vs Beach FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Highland FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | -0.47 | +0.06 | 1% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 at Charlotte SA · Sat Jan 16 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sat Feb 13 vs Fairfax Virginia Union See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Charlotte SA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.60 | -0.08 | 1% | 10.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Charlotte SA Academy · Sun Nov 22 vs Highland FC · Sat Jan 16 vs VDA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | NCFC Youth | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.13 | -0.01 | 1% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Jan 24 at NCFC Youth Academy · Sat Jan 30 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Feb 6 at Charlotte SA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.