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Zeta Academy

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U14 · 13 teams · Zeta Academy (all teams)

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3rd
5-0-1 record · 6 played
2.50 points per game
+18 goal diff · 22–4
WLWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7
+0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Zeta Academy
3rd · 2.50 PPG
vs
Elite FC 2
4th · 2.50 PPG

Portola Springs Community Park, Portola Springs B ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.5 against · 1.85 expected points)

Season so farZeta AcademyElite FC 2
Position3rd4th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-15-0-1
Points per game2.502.50
Goals for / game3.73.3
Goals against / game0.71.2
Clean sheets43
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W W L WW W W L W
Biggest win6–0 vs Reds FC 26–1 at Rayados Academy San Diego
Worst loss0–3 at Crusaders SC2–5 at EMPIRE SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.94+1.40
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.15-0.15

Common opponents: EMPIRE SC — we 2–0; they 2–5. Crusaders SC — we 0–3; they 2–0. Rayados Academy San Diego — we 6–0; they 6–1. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 4–1; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Elite FC 2 score 3.3/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Elite FC 2 concede only 1.2/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Crusaders SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 55% / draw 20% / loss 25%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Elite FC 2 have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Elite FC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Zeta Academy – Elite FC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.57 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.57 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.29 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
2.14 PPG
4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

12% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.7 average finish
  1. 1st 12%
  2. 2nd 24%
  3. 3rd 42%
  4. 4th 22%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+0.50) 2nd (2.48) 57 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
2 Crusaders SC 2.63 (+0.13) 1st (2.54) 49 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection

How the results connect

21 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Zeta Academy to Elite FC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

14 favour us
1 even
6 favour them
+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 0–2 6–0 1–6 0–3 0–2 2–0 5–2 2–2 4–0 2–3 6–0 1–5 0–4 1–0 0–3 5–5 1–1 6–0 1–3 Zeta Academy 3rd Chula Vista FC 2 6th Rayados Academy San… 8th Crusaders SC 2nd EMPIRE SC 7th ALBION SC San Diego… 9th Reds FC 2 5th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 12th Rangers FC 2 10th Elite FC 2 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.30 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Elite FC 2
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.85 2.41 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -10
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.86 2.46 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
12:35 PM
Rangers FC 2
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -14
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.72 2.49 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
12th · 0-2-4 · GD -22
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.90 2.53 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +2
Away
Castle Park High School
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.26 2.51 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.21 2.48 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
11:05 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +17
Away
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.07 2.37 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 PM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +34
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.18 2.29 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
8th · 2-2-3 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.66 2.31 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +17
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.37 2.26 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
7th · 1-3-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.09 2.25 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
9th · 1-1-5 · GD -13
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.62 2.27 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
5–0 2.93 2.30 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
10:45 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Away
RJRSP
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.87 2.33 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.57 2.29 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
03:30 PM
BOCA OC (2)
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -10
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–0 2.76 2.31 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–0 2.82 2.34 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
12th · 0-2-4 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.83 2.36 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 2200 170+17 63.00 WW -1.54 -0.14 100% 2.0
2 Crusaders SC 8701 384+34 212.63 WWWWL -0.63 -0.05 100% 1.7
3 Zeta Academy 6501 224+18 152.50 WLWWW +0.15 -0.30 100% 2.7
4 Elite FC 2 6501 207+13 152.50 WLWWW -0.15 -0.10 97% 3.6
5 Reds FC 2 6312 1312+1 101.67 WDWLW +0.02 -0.04 1% 6.0
6 Chula Vista FC 2 7322 1816+2 111.57 DLWLD -0.38 +0.14 1% 6.3
7 EMPIRE SC 5131 98+1 61.20 LDDWD +0.43 -0.17 1% 5.9
8 Rayados Academy San Diego 7223 1829-11 81.14 LWLLD +0.32 +0.00 0% 8.0
9 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7115 619-13 40.57 LWLLD +0.39 -0.05 0% 9.8
10 Rangers FC 2 6105 418-14 30.50 WLLLL +0.13 +0.11 0% 10.7
11 BOCA OC (2) 3012 212-10 10.33 LLD -0.32 +0.18 0% 10.7
12 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6024 527-22 20.33 LDLLL +0.84 -0.04 0% 11.5
13 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3003 117-16 00.00 LLL +1.03 +0.06 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.