TableChase Clubs

AC Brea (2)

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U14 · 13 teams · AC Brea (all teams)

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1st
2-0-0 record · 2 played
3.00 points per game
+17 goal diff · 17–0
WWlast 2
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0
-1.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 12:50 PM

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AC Brea (2)
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Crusaders SC
2nd · 2.63 PPG

Pershing Middle School, Pershing MS Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.6 against · 1.04 expected points)

Season so farAC Brea (2)Crusaders SC
Position1st2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-0-07-0-1
Points per game3.002.63
Goals for / game8.54.8
Goals against / game0.00.5
Clean sheets25
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W WL W W W W
Biggest win9–0 vs Rayados Academy San Diego11–1 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
Worst loss—0–2 vs Elite FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.90+2.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.54-0.63

Common opponents: ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 — we 8–0; they 6–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Crusaders SC score 4.8/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Crusaders SC concede only 0.5/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:50 PM at Pershing Middle School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Crusaders SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Brea (2) – Crusaders SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3
Loss
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

37% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.0 average finish
  1. 1st 37%
  2. 2nd 34%
  3. 3rd 21%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

8 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link AC Brea (2) to Crusaders SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
2 even
0 favour them
+4.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
8–0 0–6 2–2 0–8 9–0 0–6 0–3 1–1 1–5 2–0 1–6 5–2 0–4 6–0 0–3 AC Brea (2) 1st ALBION SC Santa Ana… 12th Rayados Academy San… 8th BOCA OC (2) 11th Zeta Academy 3rd Elite FC 2 4th ALBION SC San Diego… 9th Rangers FC 2 10th Crusaders SC 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 11th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
12:50 PM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +34
Away
Pershing Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.04 2.35 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:10 PM
Reds FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.65 2.42 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
11:05 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +2
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.69 2.47 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
10:30 AM
Elite FC 2
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Away
Rosetta Canyon Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.80 2.36 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM
EMPIRE SC
7th · 1-3-1 · GD +1
Away
Eastvale Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.33 2.36 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
01:00 PM
EMPIRE SC
7th · 1-3-1 · GD +1
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.55 2.38 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.97 2.45 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
11:05 AM
Zeta Academy
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +18
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.74 2.38 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.10 2.35 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +18
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.43 2.27 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–0 2.94 2.33 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
9th · 1-1-5 · GD -13
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
4–0 2.88 2.37 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
8th · 2-2-3 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
6–1 2.81 2.40 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
12th · 0-2-4 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–0 2.93 2.43 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -14
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.86 2.45 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +34
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.35 2.39 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.45 2.40 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
4–1 2.50 2.40 Bank it
Sun May 23
10:45 AM
Rangers FC 2
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -14
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
5–0 2.92 2.43 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -10
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–1 2.88 2.45 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
9th · 1-1-5 · GD -13
Away
Hickman Fields
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.79 2.46 Bank it
Sat May 29
10:45 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Away
RJRSP
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.94 2.48 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 2200 170+17 63.00 WW -1.54 -0.14 100% 2.0
2 Crusaders SC 8701 384+34 212.63 WWWWL -0.63 -0.05 100% 1.7
3 Zeta Academy 6501 224+18 152.50 WLWWW +0.15 -0.30 100% 2.8
4 Elite FC 2 6501 207+13 152.50 WLWWW -0.15 -0.10 97% 3.6
5 Reds FC 2 6312 1312+1 101.67 WDWLW +0.02 -0.04 2% 6.0
6 Chula Vista FC 2 7322 1816+2 111.57 DLWLD -0.38 +0.14 1% 6.3
7 EMPIRE SC 5131 98+1 61.20 LDDWD +0.43 -0.17 1% 5.9
8 Rayados Academy San Diego 7223 1829-11 81.14 LWLLD +0.32 +0.00 0% 8.0
9 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7115 619-13 40.57 LWLLD +0.39 -0.05 0% 9.8
10 Rangers FC 2 6105 418-14 30.50 WLLLL +0.13 +0.11 0% 10.8
11 BOCA OC (2) 3012 212-10 10.33 LLD -0.32 +0.18 0% 10.7
12 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6024 527-22 20.33 LDLLL +0.84 -0.04 0% 11.4
13 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3003 117-16 00.00 LLL +1.03 +0.06 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.