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Elite FC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U14 · 13 teams · SoCal Elite FC (all teams)

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4th
5-0-1 record · 6 played
2.50 points per game
+13 goal diff · 20–7
WLWWWlast 5
97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6
-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Elite FC 2
4th · 2.50 PPG
at
Zeta Academy
3rd · 2.50 PPG

Portola Springs Community Park, Portola Springs B ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.3 against · 0.95 expected points)

Season so farElite FC 2Zeta Academy
Position4th3rd
Record (W-D-L)5-0-15-0-1
Points per game2.502.50
Goals for / game3.33.7
Goals against / game1.20.7
Clean sheets34
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W L WW W W L W
Biggest win6–1 at Rayados Academy San Diego6–0 vs Reds FC 2
Worst loss2–5 at EMPIRE SC0–3 at Crusaders SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.40+1.94
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.15+0.15

Common opponents: EMPIRE SC — we 2–5; they 2–0. Rayados Academy San Diego — we 6–1; they 6–0. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 2–0; they 4–1. Crusaders SC — we 2–0; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Zeta Academy score 3.7/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Zeta Academy concede only 0.7/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 25%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Zeta Academy have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Portola Springs Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Zeta Academy sit 3rd on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.50.

    A point moves us above Zeta Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Zeta Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Elite FC 2 – Zeta Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.14 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.57 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
2.29 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
2.14 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
97% top 4
3% below the top 4
3.6 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 7%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 66%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+0.50) 2nd (2.48) 57 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
2 Crusaders SC 2.63 (+0.13) 1st (2.54) 49 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
3 Zeta Academy 2.50 (+0.00) 3rd (2.36) A point next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Elite FC 2 to Zeta Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
1 even
14 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 1–4 6–1 0–6 2–0 3–0 2–5 0–2 2–2 3–2 0–4 5–1 0–6 4–0 3–1 0–6 5–5 1–1 3–0 0–1 Elite FC 2 4th Chula Vista FC 2 6th Rayados Academy San… 8th Crusaders SC 2nd EMPIRE SC 7th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 12th Rangers FC 2 10th ALBION SC San Diego… 9th Reds FC 2 5th Zeta Academy 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Zeta Academy
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +18
Away
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.95 2.28 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:30 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
9th · 1-1-5 · GD -13
Home
Ruben S. Ayala Park · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.63 2.32 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
03:30 PM
BOCA OC (2)
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -10
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–1 2.63 2.36 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
Reds FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Away
Orange County Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.93 2.31 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
10:30 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +17
Home
Rosetta Canyon Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.02 2.20 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.73 2.24 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
12th · 0-2-4 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–0 2.73 2.28 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +17
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–3 0.74 2.17 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
7th · 1-3-1 · GD +1
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.08 2.16 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.87 2.21 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
8th · 2-2-3 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.66 2.23 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.98 2.22 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +34
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.87 2.15 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +18
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.21 2.10 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
9th · 1-1-5 · GD -13
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.47 2.12 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -10
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–0 2.77 2.15 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.20 2.15 Swing game
Tue May 25
09:30 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Away
South Fontana
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–1 2.78 2.18 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 2200 170+17 63.00 WW -1.54 -0.14 100% 2.0
2 Crusaders SC 8701 384+34 212.63 WWWWL -0.63 -0.05 100% 1.7
3 Zeta Academy 6501 224+18 152.50 WLWWW +0.15 -0.30 100% 2.8
4 Elite FC 2 6501 207+13 152.50 WLWWW -0.15 -0.10 97% 3.6
5 Reds FC 2 6312 1312+1 101.67 WDWLW +0.02 -0.04 2% 6.1
6 Chula Vista FC 2 7322 1816+2 111.57 DLWLD -0.38 +0.14 1% 6.3
7 EMPIRE SC 5131 98+1 61.20 LDDWD +0.43 -0.17 1% 5.9
8 Rayados Academy San Diego 7223 1829-11 81.14 LWLLD +0.32 +0.00 0% 8.0
9 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7115 619-13 40.57 LWLLD +0.39 -0.05 0% 9.8
10 Rangers FC 2 6105 418-14 30.50 WLLLL +0.13 +0.11 0% 10.7
11 BOCA OC (2) 3012 212-10 10.33 LLD -0.32 +0.18 0% 10.8
12 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6024 527-22 20.33 LDLLL +0.84 -0.04 0% 11.5
13 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3003 117-16 00.00 LLL +1.03 +0.06 0% 12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.