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Rayados Academy San Diego

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U14 · 13 teams · Rayados Academy San Diego (all teams)

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8th
2-2-3 record · 7 played
1.14 points per game
-11 goal diff · 18–29
LWLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.0
+0.32 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:40 AM

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Rayados Academy San Diego
8th · 1.14 PPG
vs
Reds FC 2
5th · 1.67 PPG

SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, FIELD 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.6 for, 3.3 against · 1.07 expected points)

Season so farRayados Academy San DiegoReds FC 2
Position8th5th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-33-1-2
Points per game1.141.67
Goals for / game2.62.2
Goals against / game4.12.0
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)D L L W LW L W D W
Biggest win6–0 vs Rangers FC 24–0 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
Worst loss0–9 at AC Brea (2)0–6 at Zeta Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.99+0.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.32+0.02

Common opponents: ALBION SC San Diego (1) — we 5–2; they 2–0. Zeta Academy — we 0–6; they 0–6. Rangers FC 2 — we 6–0; they 5–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 at Zeta Academy, 0–9 at AC Brea (2).

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    EMPIRE SC sit 7th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.14.

    A point moves us above EMPIRE SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Reds FC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rayados Academy San Diego – Reds FC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1
Win
1.38 PPG
7th▲ up 1 8th— holds 8th— holds
Draw
1.13 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Loss
1.00 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 15%
  8. 8th 60%
  9. 9th 13%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.46 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 AC Brea (2) 3.00 (+1.86) 2nd (2.48) 64 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Crusaders SC 2.63 (+1.49) 1st (2.54) 56 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Zeta Academy 2.50 (+1.36) 3rd (2.36) 52 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
4 Elite FC 2 2.50 (+1.36) 4th (2.18) 52 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
5 Reds FC 2 1.67 (+0.53) 6th (1.55) 33 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
6 Chula Vista FC 2 1.57 (+0.43) 7th (1.49) 30 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
7 EMPIRE SC 1.20 (+0.06) 5th (1.56) A point next game

How the results connect

20 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Rayados Academy San Diego to Reds FC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
2 even
9 favour them
-0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–6 6–0 5–2 0–2 6–0 2–5 5–5 2–2 1–1 3–2 1–6 2–0 3–1 0–4 1–0 2–0 0–4 1–4 1–1 Rayados Academy San… 8th Zeta Academy 3rd ALBION SC San Diego… 9th Rangers FC 2 10th Chula Vista FC 2 6th Elite FC 2 4th EMPIRE SC 7th Crusaders SC 2nd FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 13th Reds FC 2 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:40 AM
Reds FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Home
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–3 1.07 1.13 Upside
Sat Nov 7
10:30 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Away
South Fontana
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–2 2.13 1.24 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
10:40 AM
EMPIRE SC
7th · 1-3-1 · GD +1
Home
MEADOW PARK
●●●●○ Tough
27%
2–3 0.99 1.22 Upside
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM
BOCA OC (2)
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -10
Home
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–2 2.12 1.30 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
12th · 0-2-4 · GD -22
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–2 2.04 1.36 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
9th · 1-1-5 · GD -13
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.93 1.41 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +18
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.27 1.33 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
10th · 1-0-5 · GD -14
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–2 1.83 1.36 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +34
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–6 0.06 1.28 Upside
Sat Apr 3
03:30 PM
BOCA OC (2)
11th · 0-1-2 · GD -10
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
3–2 1.79 1.31 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
4th · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.27 1.25 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +17
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–6 0.14 1.19 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
6th · 3-2-2 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.08 1.19 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
2–3 0.75 1.17 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
4–2 2.42 1.22 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
7th · 1-3-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.70 1.20 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +34
Home
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.12 1.15 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 AC Brea (2) 2200 170+17 63.00 WW -1.54 -0.14 100% 2.0
2 Crusaders SC 8701 384+34 212.63 WWWWL -0.63 -0.05 100% 1.7
3 Zeta Academy 6501 224+18 152.50 WLWWW +0.15 -0.30 100% 2.7
4 Elite FC 2 6501 207+13 152.50 WLWWW -0.15 -0.10 97% 3.6
5 Reds FC 2 6312 1312+1 101.67 WDWLW +0.02 -0.04 1% 6.1
6 Chula Vista FC 2 7322 1816+2 111.57 DLWLD -0.38 +0.14 1% 6.3
7 EMPIRE SC 5131 98+1 61.20 LDDWD +0.43 -0.17 2% 5.9
8 Rayados Academy San Diego 7223 1829-11 81.14 LWLLD +0.32 +0.00 0% 8.0
9 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7115 619-13 40.57 LWLLD +0.39 -0.05 0% 9.8
10 Rangers FC 2 6105 418-14 30.50 WLLLL +0.13 +0.11 0% 10.8
11 BOCA OC (2) 3012 212-10 10.33 LLD -0.32 +0.18 0% 10.7
12 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6024 527-22 20.33 LDLLL +0.84 -0.04 0% 11.5
13 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3003 117-16 00.00 LLL +1.03 +0.06 0% 11.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.