TableChase Clubs

XF Pre- 1

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northwest GU12 · 10 teams · Crossfire Premier (all teams)

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6th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
+3 goal diff · 6–3
LLWlast 3
60% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1
-0.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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XF Pre- 1
6th · 1.00 PPG
at
Northwest United Pre
7th · 0.50 PPG

Skagit Valley College, Field 2 - 9v9 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.3 against · 1.75 expected points)

Season so farXF Pre- 1Northwest United Pre
Position6th7th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-20-1-1
Points per game1.000.50
Goals for / game2.01.5
Goals against / game1.02.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L LD L
Biggest win5–0 at Snohomish United Pre—
Worst loss1–2 at Eastside FC Pre- I2–3 vs PacNW SC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.51-0.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.13+0.24

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Seattle United Pre Copa.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 23% / loss 27%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Skagit Valley College.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Northwest United Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (XF Pre- 1 – Northwest United Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
1.50 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
0.75 PPG
7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st
60% top 4
40% below the top 4
4.1 average finish
  1. 1st 6%
  2. 2nd 15%
  3. 3rd 19%
  4. 4th 19%
  5. 5th 18%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.12) 51 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2 Seattle United Pre 2.33 (+1.33) 2nd (1.85) 39 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
3 PacNW SC Pre 2.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.52) 33 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4 Seattle United Pre Copa 1.67 (+0.67) 5th (1.60) 28 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 XF Pre- 2 1.60 (+0.60) 3rd (1.65) 26 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

How the results connect

3 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link XF Pre- 1 to Northwest United Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 even
0 favour them
+1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 2–2 3–2 1–2 2–1 1–1 5–0 1–2 XF Pre- 1 6th Seattle United Pre … 4th Eastside FC Pre- I 1st Snohomish United Pre 10th PacNW SC Pre 3rd XF Pre- 2 5th Northwest United Pre 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 7th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Northwest United Pre
7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.75 1.19 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6
Home
Marymoor Park
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.40 1.43 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
TBD
XF Pre- 2
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.28 1.40 Upside
Sat Dec 5
01:30 PM
Washington Premier Pre
8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.76 1.45 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
TBD
Seattle United Pre
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.40 1.45 Upside
Sat Jan 16
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.63 1.47 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
TBD
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5
Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.36 1.46 Upside
Sat Feb 13
TBD
Snohomish United Pre
10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.53 1.55 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
07:30 PM
Seattle United Pre Copa
4th · 1-2-0 · GD +1
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.41 1.54 Upside
Sat Feb 27
TBD
Northwest United Pre
7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.00 1.58 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
10:15 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6
Away
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–0 2.20 1.62 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
XF Pre- 2
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.52 1.62 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Washington Premier Pre
8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–1 2.00 1.64 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
Seattle United Pre
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.18 1.61 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.90 1.63 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 4400 83+5 123.00 WWWW -0.14 -0.09 97% 1.7
2 Seattle United Pre 3210 41+3 72.33 DWW -0.31 -0.03 83% 2.9
3 PacNW SC Pre 5311 109+1 102.00 WDWWL -0.30 +0.10 34% 5.1
4 Seattle United Pre Copa 3120 43+1 51.67 DDW +0.35 -0.12 52% 4.4
5 XF Pre- 2 5221 95+4 81.60 WLDDW -0.12 -0.05 61% 4.1
6 XF Pre- 1 3102 63+3 31.00 LLW -0.13 -0.07 60% 4.1
7 Northwest United Pre 2011 34-1 10.50 LD +0.24 -0.03 6% 7.0
8 Washington Premier Pre 3012 35-2 10.33 DLL +0.53 -0.10 6% 7.1
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 3003 17-6 00.00 LLL +0.31 +0.03 0% 9.2
10 Snohomish United Pre 3003 19-8 00.00 LLL +0.42 +0.06 0% 9.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.