XF Pre- 1
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northwest GU12 · 10 teams · Crossfire Premier (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Skagit Valley College, Field 2 - 9v9 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.3 against · 1.75 expected points)
| Season so far | XF Pre- 1 | Northwest United Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 0-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L | D L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at Snohomish United Pre | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Eastside FC Pre- I | 2–3 vs PacNW SC Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.51 | -0.19 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.13 | +0.24 |
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Seattle United Pre Copa.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 23% / loss 27%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Skagit Valley College.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Northwest United Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (XF Pre- 1 – Northwest United Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 6%
- 2nd 15%
- 3rd 19%
- 4th 19%
- 5th 18%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 7%
- 8th 3%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.12) | 51 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 2 | Seattle United Pre | 2.33 (+1.33) | 2nd (1.85) | 39 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 3 | PacNW SC Pre | 2.00 (+1.00) | 6th (1.52) | 33 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 4 | Seattle United Pre Copa | 1.67 (+0.67) | 5th (1.60) | 28 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 5 | XF Pre- 2 | 1.60 (+0.60) | 3rd (1.65) | 26 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
How the results connect
3 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link XF Pre- 1 to Northwest United Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.07 · 7th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Northwest United Pre 7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.75 | 1.19 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6 |
Home Marymoor Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.40 | 1.43 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 TBD |
XF Pre- 2 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.28 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 01:30 PM |
Washington Premier Pre 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.76 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
Seattle United Pre 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.40 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 TBD |
PacNW SC Pre 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
Eastside FC Pre- I 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.36 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Snohomish United Pre 10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.53 | 1.55 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 20 07:30 PM |
Seattle United Pre Copa 4th · 1-2-0 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Northwest United Pre 7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 2.00 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 10:15 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6 |
Away PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.20 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
XF Pre- 2 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Washington Premier Pre 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–1 | 2.00 | 1.64 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
Seattle United Pre 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.18 | 1.61 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
PacNW SC Pre 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 1.63 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.14 | -0.09 | 97% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Seattle United Pre Copa · Sat Nov 14 at PacNW SC Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Seattle United Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -0.31 | -0.03 | 83% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Northwest United Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs PacNW SC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | PacNW SC Pre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWWL | -0.30 | +0.10 | 34% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Washington Premier Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Eastside FC Pre- I See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Seattle United Pre Copa | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | DDW | +0.35 | -0.12 | 52% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Snohomish United Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 at Northwest United Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | XF Pre- 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 | 1.60 | WLDDW | -0.12 | -0.05 | 61% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sat Dec 5 at Snohomish United Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | XF Pre- 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.13 | -0.07 | 60% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Northwest United Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Eastside FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 at XF Pre- 2 See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Northwest United Pre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.24 | -0.03 | 6% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 1 at Snohomish United Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Washington Premier Pre | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.53 | -0.10 | 6% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at PacNW SC Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs XF Pre- 1 See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Eastside FC Pre- II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.31 | +0.03 | 0% | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Washington Premier Pre · Sat Oct 31 at XF Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 14 vs Snohomish United Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Snohomish United Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.42 | +0.06 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United Pre Copa · Sun Nov 1 vs Northwest United Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Eastside FC Pre- II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.