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Seattle United Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northwest GU12 · 10 teams · Seattle United (all teams)

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2nd
2-1-0 record · 3 played
2.33 points per game
+3 goal diff · 4–1
DWWlast 3
82% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0
-0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM

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Seattle United Pre
2nd · 2.33 PPG
vs
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 3.00 PPG

Jefferson Park , Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.0 against · 1.41 expected points)

Season so farSeattle United PreEastside FC Pre- I
Position2nd1st
Record (W-D-L)2-1-04-0-0
Points per game2.333.00
Goals for / game1.32.0
Goals against / game0.30.8
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W DW W W W
Biggest win2–0 at Eastside FC Pre- II2–0 vs Snohomish United Pre
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.48+0.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.31-0.14

Common opponents: Washington Premier Pre — we 1–0; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Eastside FC Pre- I score 2.0/game — well above the league's 1.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 37%; a draw (30%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Eastside FC Pre- I have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eastside FC Pre- I game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Seattle United Pre – Eastside FC Pre- I) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.00 PPG
2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 2nd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG
1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 2nd— holds
Loss
1.75 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

18% finish 1st
82% top 4
18% below the top 4
3.0 average finish
  1. 1st 18%
  2. 2nd 29%
  3. 3rd 21%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 9%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.89 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 3.00 (+0.67) 1st (2.12) 47 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection

How the results connect

4 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Seattle United Pre to Eastside FC Pre- I through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 even
1 favour them
-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 1–2 2–2 1–2 1–1 1–0 1–2 2–0 0–2 Seattle United Pre 2nd Washington Premier … 8th Seattle United Pre … 4th Eastside FC Pre- II 9th XF Pre- 2 5th XF Pre- 1 6th Eastside FC Pre- I 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 5th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 19
02:00 PM
no score posted
Northwest United Pre
7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Home
Lower Woodland Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
1–0 1.97 2.24 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
11:30 AM
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5
Home
Jefferson Park
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.41 2.07 Upside
Sat Oct 31
06:00 AM
PacNW SC Pre
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–1 1.89 2.04 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
02:00 PM
XF Pre- 2
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Home
Lower Woodland Park
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–0 1.55 1.97 Upside
Sat Dec 12
TBD
XF Pre- 1
6th · 1-0-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.32 1.89 Upside
Sat Jan 16
06:00 AM
Snohomish United Pre
10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.45 1.95 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
04:00 PM
Seattle United Pre Copa
4th · 1-2-0 · GD +1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–0 1.65 1.92 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
03:00 PM
Northwest United Pre
7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Away far trip
Sedro-Woolley High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–0 1.75 1.91 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
11:00 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
1–0 2.32 1.94 Bank it
Sat Feb 13
TBD
XF Pre- 2
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.34 1.90 Upside
Sat Feb 20
04:30 PM
Washington Premier Pre
8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
1–0 1.96 1.90 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
11:30 AM
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●○ Tough
30%
0–1 1.20 1.85 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.66 1.84 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
XF Pre- 1
6th · 1-0-2 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.54 1.82 Upside
Sat May 1
10:30 AM
Snohomish United Pre
10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
1–0 2.28 1.85 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 4400 83+5 123.00 WWWW -0.14 -0.09 97% 1.6
2 Seattle United Pre 3210 41+3 72.33 DWW -0.31 -0.03 82% 3.0
3 PacNW SC Pre 5311 109+1 102.00 WDWWL -0.30 +0.10 38% 5.0
4 Seattle United Pre Copa 3120 43+1 51.67 DDW +0.35 -0.12 52% 4.4
5 XF Pre- 2 5221 95+4 81.60 WLDDW -0.12 -0.05 61% 4.0
6 XF Pre- 1 3102 63+3 31.00 LLW -0.13 -0.07 59% 4.1
7 Northwest United Pre 2011 34-1 10.50 LD +0.24 -0.03 6% 7.0
8 Washington Premier Pre 3012 35-2 10.33 DLL +0.53 -0.10 5% 7.2
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 3003 17-6 00.00 LLL +0.31 +0.03 0% 9.1
10 Snohomish United Pre 3003 19-8 00.00 LLL +0.42 +0.06 0% 9.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.