TableChase Clubs

Washington Premier Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northwest GU12 · 10 teams · Washington Premier FC (all teams)

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8th
0-1-2 record · 3 played
0.33 points per game
-2 goal diff · 3–5
DLLlast 3
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.2
+0.53 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:30 AM

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Washington Premier Pre
8th · 0.33 PPG
vs
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 0.00 PPG

WPFC Field Complex, Field 2A ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.8 for, 0.9 against · 1.96 expected points)

Season so farWashington Premier PreEastside FC Pre- II
Position8th9th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-20-0-3
Points per game0.330.00
Goals for / game1.00.3
Goals against / game1.72.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)L L DL L L
Biggest win——
Worst loss1–2 vs Eastside FC Pre- I0–2 vs XF Pre- 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.23-0.91
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.53+0.31

Common opponents: XF Pre- 2 — we 2–2; they 0–2. Seattle United Pre — we 0–1; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Eastside FC Pre- II average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Eastside FC Pre- II concede 2.3/game; worst result 0–2 vs XF Pre- 2.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Seattle United Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 58% / draw 23% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Eastside FC Pre- II have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Northwest United Pre sit 7th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.33.

    A point moves us above Northwest United Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eastside FC Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Washington Premier Pre – Eastside FC Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.00 PPG
7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1 8th— holds
Win
1.00 PPG
7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1 8th— holds
Draw
0.50 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1
Loss
0.25 PPG
9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
7.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 26%
  8. 8th 37%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 3.00 (+2.67) 1st (2.12) 53 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
2 Seattle United Pre 2.33 (+2.00) 2nd (1.85) 41 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 PacNW SC Pre 2.00 (+1.67) 6th (1.52) 35 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 Seattle United Pre Copa 1.67 (+1.34) 5th (1.60) 30 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 XF Pre- 2 1.60 (+1.27) 3rd (1.65) 28 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 XF Pre- 1 1.00 (+0.67) 4th (1.63) Win next game
7 Northwest United Pre 0.50 (+0.17) 7th (1.17) A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Washington Premier Pre to Eastside FC Pre- II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
0 favour them
+2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 2–0 2–2 2–0 1–2 2–1 3–0 3–1 Washington Premier … 8th Seattle United Pre 2nd XF Pre- 2 5th Eastside FC Pre- I 1st PacNW SC Pre 3rd Eastside FC Pre- II 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 9th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:30 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
1–0 1.96 0.74 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:15 PM
PacNW SC Pre
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Starfire Sports
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.07 0.81 Upside
Sat Dec 5
01:30 PM
XF Pre- 1
6th · 1-0-2 · GD +3
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.01 0.84 Upside
Sat Dec 12
01:30 PM
Snohomish United Pre
10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–0 2.13 1.02 Swing game
Sat Jan 16
09:00 AM
Seattle United Pre Copa
4th · 1-2-0 · GD +1
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
0–1 0.96 1.02 Upside
Sat Jan 23
01:30 PM
Northwest United Pre
7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.47 1.07 Upside
Sat Jan 23
TBD
Northwest United Pre
7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.22 1.08 Upside
Sat Jan 30
01:45 PM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.74 1.14 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
01:30 PM
XF Pre- 2
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.04 1.13 Upside
Sat Feb 13
10:15 AM
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●● Very tough
16%
0–1 0.70 1.10 Upside
Sat Feb 20
04:30 PM
Seattle United Pre
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
0–1 0.79 1.08 Upside
Sat Feb 27
01:30 PM
PacNW SC Pre
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.34 1.09 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
XF Pre- 1
6th · 1-0-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–1 0.79 1.08 Upside
Sat Apr 24
10:30 AM
Snohomish United Pre
10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–1 1.90 1.12 Swing game
Sat May 1
10:30 AM
Seattle United Pre Copa
4th · 1-2-0 · GD +1
Home
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.17 1.13 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 4400 83+5 123.00 WWWW -0.14 -0.09 97% 1.7
2 Seattle United Pre 3210 41+3 72.33 DWW -0.31 -0.03 83% 2.9
3 PacNW SC Pre 5311 109+1 102.00 WDWWL -0.30 +0.10 37% 5.0
4 Seattle United Pre Copa 3120 43+1 51.67 DDW +0.35 -0.12 52% 4.4
5 XF Pre- 2 5221 95+4 81.60 WLDDW -0.12 -0.05 64% 4.0
6 XF Pre- 1 3102 63+3 31.00 LLW -0.13 -0.07 56% 4.2
7 Northwest United Pre 2011 34-1 10.50 LD +0.24 -0.03 7% 7.0
8 Washington Premier Pre 3012 35-2 10.33 DLL +0.53 -0.10 5% 7.2
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 3003 17-6 00.00 LLL +0.31 +0.03 0% 9.1
10 Snohomish United Pre 3003 19-8 00.00 LLL +0.42 +0.06 0% 9.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.