Northwest United Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northwest GU12 · 10 teams · Northwest United FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Skagit Valley College, Field 2 - 9v9 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.9 against · 1.03 expected points)
| Season so far | Northwest United Pre | XF Pre- 1 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-1 | 1-0-2 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D L | W L L |
| Biggest win | — | 5–0 at Snohomish United Pre |
| Worst loss | 2–3 vs PacNW SC Pre | 1–2 at Eastside FC Pre- I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.19 | +0.51 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.24 | -0.13 |
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
XF Pre- 1 score 2.0/game — well above the league's 1.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 27%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
-
What a win does
XF Pre- 1 sit 6th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.50.A point moves us above XF Pre- 1 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the XF Pre- 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Northwest United Pre – XF Pre- 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.67 PPG |
7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.33 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.67 PPG |
7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.33 PPG |
7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 15%
- 7th 31%
- 8th 30%
- 9th 8%
- 10th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.72 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 3.00 (+2.50) | 1st (2.12) | 53 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 2 | Seattle United Pre | 2.33 (+1.83) | 2nd (1.85) | 41 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 3 | PacNW SC Pre | 2.00 (+1.50) | 6th (1.52) | 35 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | Seattle United Pre Copa | 1.67 (+1.17) | 5th (1.60) | 30 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 5 | XF Pre- 2 | 1.60 (+1.10) | 3rd (1.65) | 28 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 6 | XF Pre- 1 | 1.00 (+0.50) | 4th (1.63) | A point next game |
How the results connect
3 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Northwest United Pre to XF Pre- 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 4th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 19 02:00 PM no score posted |
Seattle United Pre 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Lower Woodland Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
0–1 | 0.79 | 0.60 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
XF Pre- 1 6th · 1-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home Skagit Valley College |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.03 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:30 PM |
Snohomish United Pre 10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8 |
Away Valley View Middle School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
1–1 | 1.97 | 0.96 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Seattle United Pre Copa 4th · 1-2-0 · GD +1 |
Home Skagit Valley College |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 09:00 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- I 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–2 | 0.70 | 0.96 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 02:15 PM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.80 | 1.06 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 23 01:30 PM |
Washington Premier Pre 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.29 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 TBD |
Washington Premier Pre 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.13 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 03:00 PM |
Seattle United Pre 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3 |
Home Sedro-Woolley High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
0–1 | 0.99 | 1.12 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
PacNW SC Pre 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 1.12 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
XF Pre- 1 6th · 1-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 03:00 PM |
Snohomish United Pre 10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8 |
Home Sedro-Woolley High School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.19 | 1.17 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 08:00 AM |
Seattle United Pre Copa 4th · 1-2-0 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.97 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Eastside FC Pre- I 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5 |
Home Skagit Valley College |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.91 | 1.14 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6 |
Home Skagit Valley College |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
1–0 | 2.03 | 1.19 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
XF Pre- 2 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–1 | 0.84 | 1.17 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.14 | -0.09 | 96% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Seattle United Pre Copa · Sat Nov 14 at PacNW SC Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Seattle United Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -0.31 | -0.03 | 84% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Northwest United Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs PacNW SC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | PacNW SC Pre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWWL | -0.30 | +0.10 | 34% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Washington Premier Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Eastside FC Pre- I See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Seattle United Pre Copa | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | DDW | +0.35 | -0.12 | 54% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Snohomish United Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 at Northwest United Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | XF Pre- 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 | 1.60 | WLDDW | -0.12 | -0.05 | 59% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sat Dec 5 at Snohomish United Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | XF Pre- 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.13 | -0.07 | 61% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Northwest United Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Eastside FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 at XF Pre- 2 See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Northwest United Pre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.24 | -0.03 | 7% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 1 at Snohomish United Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Washington Premier Pre | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.53 | -0.10 | 5% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at PacNW SC Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs XF Pre- 1 See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Eastside FC Pre- II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.31 | +0.03 | 0% | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Washington Premier Pre · Sat Oct 31 at XF Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 14 vs Snohomish United Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Snohomish United Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.42 | +0.06 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United Pre Copa · Sun Nov 1 vs Northwest United Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Eastside FC Pre- II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.