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Northwest United Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northwest GU12 · 10 teams · Northwest United FC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 26 minutes ago.
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7th
0-1-1 record · 2 played
0.50 points per game
-1 goal diff · 3–4
LDlast 2
7% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9
+0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Northwest United Pre
7th · 0.50 PPG
vs
XF Pre- 1
6th · 1.00 PPG

Skagit Valley College, Field 2 - 9v9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.9 against · 1.03 expected points)

Season so farNorthwest United PreXF Pre- 1
Position7th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-11-0-2
Points per game0.501.00
Goals for / game1.52.0
Goals against / game2.01.0
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)D LW L L
Biggest win—5–0 at Snohomish United Pre
Worst loss2–3 vs PacNW SC Pre1–2 at Eastside FC Pre- I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.19+0.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.24-0.13

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    XF Pre- 1 score 2.0/game — well above the league's 1.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 27%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    XF Pre- 1 sit 6th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.50.

    A point moves us above XF Pre- 1 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the XF Pre- 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Northwest United Pre – XF Pre- 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.67 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3
Win
1.33 PPG
6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1
Draw
0.67 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3
Loss
0.33 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
7% top 4
93% below the top 4
6.9 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 31%
  8. 8th 30%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.72 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 3.00 (+2.50) 1st (2.12) 53 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
2 Seattle United Pre 2.33 (+1.83) 2nd (1.85) 41 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 PacNW SC Pre 2.00 (+1.50) 6th (1.52) 35 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 Seattle United Pre Copa 1.67 (+1.17) 5th (1.60) 30 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 XF Pre- 2 1.60 (+1.10) 3rd (1.65) 28 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 XF Pre- 1 1.00 (+0.50) 4th (1.63) A point next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Northwest United Pre to XF Pre- 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
-1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 1–2 2–1 2–3 2–2 1–0 2–1 0–5 Northwest United Pre 7th XF Pre- 2 5th PacNW SC Pre 3rd Eastside FC Pre- I 1st Seattle United Pre … 4th Snohomish United Pre 10th XF Pre- 1 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 4th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 19
02:00 PM
no score posted
Seattle United Pre
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away far trip
Lower Woodland Park
●●●●● Very tough
18%
0–1 0.79 0.60 Upside
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
XF Pre- 1
6th · 1-0-2 · GD +3
Home
Skagit Valley College
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.03 0.71 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:30 PM
Snohomish United Pre
10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Away
Valley View Middle School
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
1–1 1.97 0.96 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
Seattle United Pre Copa
4th · 1-2-0 · GD +1
Home
Skagit Valley College
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.20 1.00 Upside
Sat Dec 5
09:00 AM
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–2 0.70 0.96 Upside
Sat Dec 12
02:15 PM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.80 1.06 Swing game
Sat Jan 23
01:30 PM
Washington Premier Pre
8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.29 1.09 Upside
Sat Jan 23
TBD
Washington Premier Pre
8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.54 1.13 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
03:00 PM
Seattle United Pre
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Home
Sedro-Woolley High School
●●●●● Very tough
24%
0–1 0.99 1.12 Upside
Sat Feb 6
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.10 1.12 Upside
Sat Feb 27
TBD
XF Pre- 1
6th · 1-0-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.80 1.09 Upside
Sat Mar 13
03:00 PM
Snohomish United Pre
10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Home
Sedro-Woolley High School
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–0 2.19 1.17 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
08:00 AM
Seattle United Pre Copa
4th · 1-2-0 · GD +1
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.97 1.16 Upside
Sat Apr 3
01:00 PM
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5
Home
Skagit Valley College
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–1 0.91 1.14 Upside
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6
Home
Skagit Valley College
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
1–0 2.03 1.19 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
XF Pre- 2
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–1 0.84 1.17 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 4400 83+5 123.00 WWWW -0.14 -0.09 96% 1.7
2 Seattle United Pre 3210 41+3 72.33 DWW -0.31 -0.03 84% 2.9
3 PacNW SC Pre 5311 109+1 102.00 WDWWL -0.30 +0.10 34% 5.1
4 Seattle United Pre Copa 3120 43+1 51.67 DDW +0.35 -0.12 54% 4.4
5 XF Pre- 2 5221 95+4 81.60 WLDDW -0.12 -0.05 59% 4.1
6 XF Pre- 1 3102 63+3 31.00 LLW -0.13 -0.07 61% 4.1
7 Northwest United Pre 2011 34-1 10.50 LD +0.24 -0.03 7% 6.9
8 Washington Premier Pre 3012 35-2 10.33 DLL +0.53 -0.10 5% 7.2
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 3003 17-6 00.00 LLL +0.31 +0.03 0% 9.2
10 Snohomish United Pre 3003 19-8 00.00 LLL +0.42 +0.06 0% 9.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.