Seattle United Pre Copa
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northwest GU12 · 10 teams · Seattle United (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:15 AM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.2 for, 0.7 against · 2.35 expected points)
| Season so far | Seattle United Pre Copa | Snohomish United Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-0 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W D D | L L L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 at XF Pre- 1 | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–5 vs XF Pre- 1 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.23 | -1.20 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.35 | +0.42 |
Common opponents: PacNW SC Pre — we 2–2; they 1–2. XF Pre- 1 — we 1–0; they 0–5.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Snohomish United Pre average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 2 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Snohomish United Pre concede 3.0/game; worst result 0–5 vs XF Pre- 1.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Snohomish United Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
PacNW SC Pre sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.67.A win moves us above PacNW SC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Snohomish United Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Seattle United Pre Copa – Snohomish United Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.50 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.25 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 5%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 19%
- 5th 20%
- 6th 16%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 4%
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.78 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 3.00 (+1.33) | 1st (2.12) | 49 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 2 | Seattle United Pre | 2.33 (+0.66) | 2nd (1.85) | 37 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 3 | PacNW SC Pre | 2.00 (+0.33) | 6th (1.52) | Win next game |
How the results connect
3 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Seattle United Pre Copa to Snohomish United Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.12 · 10th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:15 AM |
Snohomish United Pre 10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8 |
Home Jefferson Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.35 | 1.84 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Eastside FC Pre- I 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
0–1 | 0.98 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Northwest United Pre 7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 06:00 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
1–0 | 2.20 | 1.73 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
XF Pre- 2 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.12 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 09:00 AM |
Washington Premier Pre 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–0 | 1.79 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 23 04:00 PM |
Seattle United Pre 2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
0–1 | 1.05 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
PacNW SC Pre 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 07:30 PM |
XF Pre- 1 6th · 1-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.32 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 12:00 PM |
Snohomish United Pre 10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Valley View Middle School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
1–0 | 2.16 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
Eastside FC Pre- I 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 08:00 AM |
Northwest United Pre 7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.79 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–0 | 2.00 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 12:30 PM |
XF Pre- 2 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 10:30 AM |
Washington Premier Pre 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.56 | 1.60 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.14 | -0.09 | 97% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Seattle United Pre Copa · Sat Nov 14 at PacNW SC Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Seattle United Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | -0.31 | -0.03 | 84% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Northwest United Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs PacNW SC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | PacNW SC Pre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 | 2.00 | WDWWL | -0.30 | +0.10 | 36% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Washington Premier Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Eastside FC Pre- I See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Seattle United Pre Copa | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | DDW | +0.35 | -0.12 | 51% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Snohomish United Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 at Northwest United Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | XF Pre- 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 | 1.60 | WLDDW | -0.12 | -0.05 | 62% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sat Dec 5 at Snohomish United Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | XF Pre- 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.13 | -0.07 | 58% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Northwest United Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Eastside FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 at XF Pre- 2 See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Northwest United Pre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | +0.24 | -0.03 | 7% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Seattle United Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 1 at Snohomish United Pre See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Washington Premier Pre | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 | 0.33 | DLL | +0.53 | -0.10 | 5% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at PacNW SC Pre · Sat Dec 5 vs XF Pre- 1 See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Eastside FC Pre- II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.31 | +0.03 | 0% | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Washington Premier Pre · Sat Oct 31 at XF Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 14 vs Snohomish United Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Snohomish United Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.42 | +0.06 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United Pre Copa · Sun Nov 1 vs Northwest United Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Eastside FC Pre- II See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.