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Seattle United Pre Copa

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northwest GU12 · 10 teams · Seattle United (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 51 minutes ago.
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4th
1-2-0 record · 3 played
1.67 points per game
+1 goal diff · 4–3
DDWlast 3
51% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4
+0.35 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:15 AM

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Seattle United Pre Copa
4th · 1.67 PPG
vs
Snohomish United Pre
10th · 0.00 PPG

Jefferson Park , Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.2 for, 0.7 against · 2.35 expected points)

Season so farSeattle United Pre CopaSnohomish United Pre
Position4th10th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-00-0-3
Points per game1.670.00
Goals for / game1.30.3
Goals against / game1.03.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W D DL L L
Biggest win1–0 at XF Pre- 1—
Worst loss—0–5 vs XF Pre- 1
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.23-1.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.35+0.42

Common opponents: PacNW SC Pre — we 2–2; they 1–2. XF Pre- 1 — we 1–0; they 0–5.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Snohomish United Pre average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Snohomish United Pre concede 3.0/game; worst result 0–5 vs XF Pre- 1.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Snohomish United Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    PacNW SC Pre sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.67.

    A win moves us above PacNW SC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Snohomish United Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Seattle United Pre Copa – Snohomish United Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 1
Win
2.00 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
1.50 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.25 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st
51% top 4
49% below the top 4
4.4 average finish
  1. 1st 5%
  2. 2nd 10%
  3. 3rd 17%
  4. 4th 19%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 16%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.78 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 3.00 (+1.33) 1st (2.12) 49 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
2 Seattle United Pre 2.33 (+0.66) 2nd (1.85) 37 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 PacNW SC Pre 2.00 (+0.33) 6th (1.52) Win next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Seattle United Pre Copa to Snohomish United Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
0 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 2–1 1–0 5–0 1–2 2–0 Seattle United Pre … 4th PacNW SC Pre 3rd XF Pre- 1 6th Eastside FC Pre- I 1st Snohomish United Pre 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 5th 10th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 10th hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:15 AM
Snohomish United Pre
10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Home
Jefferson Park
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.35 1.84 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●● Very tough
24%
0–1 0.98 1.67 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
Northwest United Pre
7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.54 1.65 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
06:00 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
1–0 2.20 1.73 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
TBD
XF Pre- 2
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.12 1.65 Upside
Sat Jan 16
09:00 AM
Washington Premier Pre
8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–0 1.79 1.67 Swing game
Sat Jan 23
04:00 PM
Seattle United Pre
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
25%
0–1 1.05 1.60 Upside
Sat Jan 30
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.42 1.59 Upside
Sat Feb 20
07:30 PM
XF Pre- 1
6th · 1-0-2 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.32 1.57 Upside
Sat Feb 27
12:00 PM
Snohomish United Pre
10th · 0-0-3 · GD -8
Away far trip
Valley View Middle School
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
1–0 2.16 1.61 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
01:00 PM
Eastside FC Pre- I
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.20 1.58 Upside
Sat Mar 20
08:00 AM
Northwest United Pre
7th · 0-1-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.79 1.60 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
09:00 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 0-0-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–0 2.00 1.62 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:30 PM
XF Pre- 2
5th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.35 1.60 Upside
Sat May 1
10:30 AM
Washington Premier Pre
8th · 0-1-2 · GD -2
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.56 1.60 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Eastside FC Pre- I 4400 83+5 123.00 WWWW -0.14 -0.09 97% 1.6
2 Seattle United Pre 3210 41+3 72.33 DWW -0.31 -0.03 84% 2.9
3 PacNW SC Pre 5311 109+1 102.00 WDWWL -0.30 +0.10 36% 5.0
4 Seattle United Pre Copa 3120 43+1 51.67 DDW +0.35 -0.12 51% 4.4
5 XF Pre- 2 5221 95+4 81.60 WLDDW -0.12 -0.05 62% 4.0
6 XF Pre- 1 3102 63+3 31.00 LLW -0.13 -0.07 58% 4.2
7 Northwest United Pre 2011 34-1 10.50 LD +0.24 -0.03 7% 7.0
8 Washington Premier Pre 3012 35-2 10.33 DLL +0.53 -0.10 5% 7.2
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 3003 17-6 00.00 LLL +0.31 +0.03 0% 9.2
10 Snohomish United Pre 3003 19-8 00.00 LLL +0.42 +0.06 0% 9.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.