TableChase Clubs

Scorpions SC PRE- ll

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU11 · 12 teams · Scorpions SC (all teams)

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4th
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 6–6
LWWlast 3
47% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2
-0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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Scorpions SC PRE- ll
4th · 2.00 PPG
at
East Coast Surf Pre- ll
5th · 1.75 PPG

Holy Trinity high school, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.1 against · 1.18 expected points)

Season so farScorpions SC PRE- llEast Coast Surf Pre- ll
Position4th5th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-12-1-1
Points per game2.001.75
Goals for / game2.02.0
Goals against / game2.01.5
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W LW W D L
Biggest win3–1 at Manhattan SC Pre- White3–1 vs Manhattan SC Pre- White
Worst loss1–4 at Connecticut FC Pre ll1–2 at AC Connecticut Pre- II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.05+0.18
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.28-0.63

Common opponents: SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll — we 2–1; they 2–2. Manhattan SC Pre- White — we 3–1; they 3–1.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 32%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Holy Trinity high school.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the East Coast Surf Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Scorpions SC PRE- ll – East Coast Surf Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.50 PPG		 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2
Win
2.25 PPG		 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
1.75 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
1.50 PPG		 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
47% top 4
53% below the top 4
5.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 27%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 15%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Select Pre- White 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.61) 60 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
2 SUSA FC Pre- ll 3.00 (+1.00) 2nd (2.53) 60 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 2.00 (+0.00) 6th (1.44) A point next game

How the results connect

6 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Scorpions SC PRE- ll to East Coast Surf Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 1–3 2–1 2–2 1–0 4–0 2–1 1–4 1–7 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 4th Manhattan SC Pre- W… 8th SUSA FC Pre- ACADEM… 7th Connecticut FC Pre … 6th AC Connecticut Pre-… 10th East Coast Surf Pre… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 5th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 26
09:00 AM
no score posted		 Select Pre- White
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +27		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.44 1.61 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 East Coast Surf Pre- ll
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Holy Trinity high school		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.18 1.52 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:30 AM		 FSA FC Pre- ll
9th · 1-3-2 · GD -5		 Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 2–2 1.43 1.51 Upside
Sun Nov 8
08:00 AM		 FC Stars Pre- White
11th · 0-1-1 · GD -1		 Away far trip
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.35 1.49 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:30 AM		 AC Connecticut Pre- II
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -17		 Home
Walpole Soccer Complex · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 3–1 2.40 1.60 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
10:30 AM		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-4 · GD -16		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.50 1.70 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
10:30 AM		 SUSA FC Pre- ll
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +20		 Home
Medway High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–2 0.54 1.58 Upside
Sun Nov 22
01:45 PM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +3		 Home
Walpole Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–2 1.60 1.58 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 Select Pre- White
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +27		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–4 0.28 1.48 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
7th · 2-2-4 · GD -4		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.37 1.47 Upside
Sat Mar 20
10:30 AM		 FC Stars Pre- White
11th · 0-1-1 · GD -1		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–1 1.66 1.48 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
08:00 AM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +3		 Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 2–2 1.27 1.47 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ll
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +20		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–3 0.37 1.40 Upside
Sat Apr 17
10:30 AM		 Manhattan SC Pre- White
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -4		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.79 1.42 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
10:30 AM		 East Coast Surf Pre- ll
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +2		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 1–1 1.47 1.42 Upside
Sat May 1
10:30 AM		 FSA FC Pre- ll
9th · 1-3-2 · GD -5		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–2 1.77 1.44 Swing game
Sun May 2
10:30 AM		 Connecticut FC Pre ll
6th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Home
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–2 1.70 1.45 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-4 · GD -16		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.27 1.49 Bank it
Sun May 16
TBD		 AC Connecticut Pre- II
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -17		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 3–1 2.15 1.52 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Select Pre- White 5500 325+27 153.00 WWWWW -0.65 -0.17 100% 1.3
2 SUSA FC Pre- ll 5500 211+20 153.00 WWWWW -0.93 +0.03 100% 1.7
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 5311 1613+3 102.00 WWWLD -0.92 +0.28 31% 5.9
4 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 3201 66+0 62.00 LWW -0.28 +0.03 47% 5.2
5 East Coast Surf Pre- ll 4211 86+2 71.75 LDWW -0.63 +0.12 45% 5.2
6 Connecticut FC Pre ll 5203 1318-5 61.20 LLWWL +0.99 -0.27 32% 5.8
7 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 8224 1822-4 81.00 LWLLL +0.58 -0.29 12% 7.0
8 Manhattan SC Pre- White 6204 1115-4 61.00 LLWWL -0.26 +0.11 4% 8.5
9 FSA FC Pre- ll 6132 1621-5 61.00 DDLDW +0.36 -0.12 12% 7.4
10 AC Connecticut Pre- II 5104 623-17 30.60 WLLLL +1.01 -0.07 0% 11.1
11 FC Stars Pre- White 2011 45-1 10.50 DL -0.07 +0.02 15% 7.1
12 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 4004 319-16 00.00 LLLL +0.27 +0.16 0% 11.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.