TableChase Clubs

FC Stars Pre- White

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU11 · 12 teams · FC Stars (all teams)

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8th
0-1-0 record · 1 played
1.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 3–3
Dlast 1
36% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.8
-0.87 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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FC Stars Pre- White
8th · 1.00 PPG
at
East Coast Surf Pre- ll
5th · 1.33 PPG

cedar creek park, 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.5 against · 1.19 expected points)

Season so farFC Stars Pre- WhiteEast Coast Surf Pre- ll
Position8th5th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-01-1-1
Points per game1.001.33
Goals for / game3.02.0
Goals against / game3.01.7
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)DW D L
Biggest win—3–1 vs Manhattan SC Pre- White
Worst loss—1–2 at AC Connecticut Pre- II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.02+0.08
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.87-0.73

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 34%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at cedar creek park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Connecticut FC Pre ll sit 7th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Connecticut FC Pre ll on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the East Coast Surf Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Stars Pre- White – East Coast Surf Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 11th▼ down 3
Win
2.00 PPG		 4th▲ up 4 4th▲ up 4 5th▲ up 3
Draw
1.00 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 11th▼ down 3
Loss
0.50 PPG		 11th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
36% top 4
65% below the top 4
5.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 20%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 15%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.91 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Select Pre- White 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.63) 65 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 57 for their projection
2 SUSA FC Pre- ll 3.00 (+2.00) 2nd (2.55) 65 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 2.00 (+1.00) 3rd (1.45) Win next game
4 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 1.50 (+0.50) 9th (1.28) A point next game
5 East Coast Surf Pre- ll 1.33 (+0.33) 5th (1.43) A point next game
6 Manhattan SC Pre- White 1.20 (+0.20) 7th (1.31) A point next game
7 Connecticut FC Pre ll 1.20 (+0.20) 4th (1.44) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link FC Stars Pre- White to East Coast Surf Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 5–5 2–2 FC Stars Pre- White 8th FSA FC Pre- ll 10th SUSA FC Pre- ACADEM… 9th East Coast Surf Pre… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 6th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM		 East Coast Surf Pre- ll
5th · 1-1-1 · GD +1		 Away far trip
cedar creek park		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.19 1.10 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:45 AM		 Manhattan SC Pre- White
6th · 2-0-3 · GD -2		 Away far trip
Randall's Island		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.33 1.17 Upside
Thu Oct 29
06:00 PM		 Select Pre- White
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +27		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–4 0.38 0.98 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
9th · 2-2-4 · GD -4		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–2 1.70 1.12 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:30 AM		 Connecticut FC Pre ll
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Away far trip
CFC Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–3 1.33 1.16 Upside
Sun Nov 8
08:00 AM		 Scorpions SC PRE- ll
4th · 1-0-1 · GD -2		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–2 1.76 1.24 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
08:00 AM		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -11		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 3–1 2.38 1.38 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
08:00 AM		 AC Connecticut Pre- II
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -17		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 4–1 2.43 1.50 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
08:00 AM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +3		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 3–2 1.58 1.51 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
08:00 AM		 SUSA FC Pre- ll
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +20		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.47 1.41 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
9th · 2-2-4 · GD -4		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.36 1.41 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Select Pre- White
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +27		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–5 0.22 1.32 Upside
Sat Mar 20
10:30 AM		 Scorpions SC PRE- ll
4th · 1-0-1 · GD -2		 Away
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.43 1.33 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ll
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +20		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.30 1.26 Upside
Sun Apr 4
08:00 AM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +3		 Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 2–3 1.23 1.26 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 AC Connecticut Pre- II
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -17		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 3–2 2.17 1.31 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -11		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.11 1.35 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 East Coast Surf Pre- ll
5th · 1-1-1 · GD +1		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.51 1.36 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Manhattan SC Pre- White
6th · 2-0-3 · GD -2		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–2 1.66 1.38 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD		 Connecticut FC Pre ll
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 3–2 1.70 1.39 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 FSA FC Pre- ll
10th · 0-3-2 · GD -10		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 3–2 2.01 1.42 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Select Pre- White 5500 325+27 153.00 WWWWW -0.70 -0.18 100% 1.4
2 SUSA FC Pre- ll 5500 211+20 153.00 WWWWW -0.96 +0.01 100% 1.6
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 5311 1613+3 102.00 WWWLD -0.95 +0.26 36% 5.7
4 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 2101 35-2 31.50 LW -0.23 +0.04 18% 7.0
5 East Coast Surf Pre- ll 3111 65+1 41.33 LDW -0.73 +0.09 36% 5.7
6 Manhattan SC Pre- White 5203 1012-2 61.20 LLLWW -0.25 +0.04 20% 6.7
7 Connecticut FC Pre ll 5203 1318-5 61.20 LLWWL +0.92 -0.27 35% 5.7
8 FC Stars Pre- White 1010 33+0 11.00 D -0.87 +0.02 36% 5.8
9 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 8224 1822-4 81.00 LWLLL +0.49 -0.26 15% 6.9
10 FSA FC Pre- ll 5032 1020-10 30.60 LDDLD +0.96 -0.21 3% 8.9
11 AC Connecticut Pre- II 5104 623-17 30.60 WLLLL +1.06 -0.10 0% 11.2
12 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 3003 213-11 00.00 LLL +0.60 +0.05 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.