TableChase Clubs

AC Connecticut Pre- II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU11 · 12 teams · AC Connecticut (all teams)

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11th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-17 goal diff · 6–23
WLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.2
+1.06 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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AC Connecticut Pre- II
11th · 0.60 PPG
at
Connecticut FC Pre ll
7th · 1.20 PPG

CFC Park, Field 1 A ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 2.0 for, 4.3 against · 0.49 expected points)

Season so farAC Connecticut Pre- IIConnecticut FC Pre ll
Position11th7th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-42-0-3
Points per game0.601.20
Goals for / game1.22.6
Goals against / game4.63.6
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L L L L WL W W L L
Biggest win2–1 vs East Coast Surf Pre- ll7–2 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
Worst loss1–9 at SUSA FC Pre- ll1–7 at SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.89-0.22
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.06+0.92

Common opponents: East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II — we 2–4; they 7–2. SUSA FC Pre- ll — we 1–9; they 0–2. Select Pre- White — we 1–5; they 1–6.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Manhattan SC Pre- White.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 13%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at CFC Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FSA FC Pre- ll sit 10th on 0.60 PPG; we are on 0.60.

    A point moves us above FSA FC Pre- ll on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Connecticut FC Pre ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Connecticut Pre- II – Connecticut FC Pre ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.50 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG		 10th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 1
Draw
0.67 PPG		 10th▲ up 1 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1
Loss
0.50 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–4 loss we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th 45%
  12. 12th 41%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.45 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Select Pre- White 3.00 (+2.40) 1st (2.63) 63 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SUSA FC Pre- ll 3.00 (+2.40) 2nd (2.55) 63 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 2.00 (+1.40) 3rd (1.45) 41 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 1.50 (+0.90) 9th (1.28) 30 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 East Coast Surf Pre- ll 1.33 (+0.73) 5th (1.43) 27 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 Manhattan SC Pre- White 1.20 (+0.60) 7th (1.31) 24 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Connecticut FC Pre ll 1.20 (+0.60) 4th (1.44) 24 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
8 FC Stars Pre- White 1.00 (+0.40) 6th (1.42) Win next game
9 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 1.00 (+0.40) 8th (1.29) Win next game
10 FSA FC Pre- ll 0.60 (+0.00) 10th (1.05) Already ahead

How the results connect

9 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link AC Connecticut Pre- II to Connecticut FC Pre ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
3 favour them
+0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–5 6–1 1–9 2–0 2–4 2–7 0–4 0–1 7–1 3–0 5–2 1–8 2–1 2–2 4–0 AC Connecticut Pre-… 11th Select Pre- White 1st SUSA FC Pre- ll 2nd East Meadow Soccer … 3rd Manhattan SC Pre- W… 6th East Coast Surf Pre… 5th SUSA FC Pre- ACADEM… 9th Connecticut FC Pre … 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 8th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:30 PM		 Connecticut FC Pre ll
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Away far trip
CFC Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–4 0.49 0.58 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:30 AM		 FSA FC Pre- ll
10th · 0-3-2 · GD -10		 Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 2–3 0.75 0.61 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:30 AM		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -11		 Home
Western Connecticut State University - Westside At		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.54 0.72 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM		 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
9th · 2-2-4 · GD -4		 Home
Western Connecticut State University - Westside At · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–3 0.80 0.73 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:30 AM		 Scorpions SC PRE- ll
4th · 1-0-1 · GD -2		 Away far trip
Walpole Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.62 0.72 Upside
Sun Nov 15
08:00 AM		 FC Stars Pre- White
8th · 0-1-0 · GD +0		 Away far trip
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–4 0.46 0.70 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +3		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%		 2–3 0.68 0.69 Upside
Sat Mar 13
08:30 AM		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -11		 Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.21 0.73 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 East Coast Surf Pre- ll
5th · 1-1-1 · GD +1		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.48 0.72 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Manhattan SC Pre- White
6th · 2-0-3 · GD -2		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.55 0.70 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 FC Stars Pre- White
8th · 0-1-0 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%		 2–3 0.69 0.70 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 FSA FC Pre- ll
10th · 0-3-2 · GD -10		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–3 1.05 0.72 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Select Pre- White
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +27		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–7 0.04 0.69 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
9th · 2-2-4 · GD -4		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.55 0.68 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ll
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +20		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.13 0.65 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD		 Scorpions SC PRE- ll
4th · 1-0-1 · GD -2		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.88 0.66 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD		 Connecticut FC Pre ll
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%		 2–3 0.75 0.67 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Select Pre- White 5500 325+27 153.00 WWWWW -0.70 -0.18 100% 1.4
2 SUSA FC Pre- ll 5500 211+20 153.00 WWWWW -0.96 +0.01 100% 1.6
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 5311 1613+3 102.00 WWWLD -0.95 +0.26 37% 5.6
4 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 2101 35-2 31.50 LW -0.23 +0.04 16% 7.1
5 East Coast Surf Pre- ll 3111 65+1 41.33 LDW -0.73 +0.09 37% 5.6
6 Manhattan SC Pre- White 5203 1012-2 61.20 LLLWW -0.25 +0.04 21% 6.7
7 Connecticut FC Pre ll 5203 1318-5 61.20 LLWWL +0.92 -0.27 37% 5.7
8 FC Stars Pre- White 1010 33+0 11.00 D -0.87 +0.02 34% 5.9
9 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 8224 1822-4 81.00 LWLLL +0.49 -0.26 16% 6.9
10 FSA FC Pre- ll 5032 1020-10 30.60 LDDLD +0.96 -0.21 3% 9.0
11 AC Connecticut Pre- II 5104 623-17 30.60 WLLLL +1.06 -0.10 0% 11.2
12 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 3003 213-11 00.00 LLL +0.60 +0.05 0% 11.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.