East Coast Surf Pre- ll
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU11 · 12 teams · East Coast Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.1 against · 1.62 expected points)
| Season so far | East Coast Surf Pre- ll | FC Stars Pre- White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-1 | 0-1-0 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D L | D |
| Biggest win | 3–1 vs Manhattan SC Pre- White | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at AC Connecticut Pre- II | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.08 | -0.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.73 | -0.87 |
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 19% / loss 34%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Scorpions SC PRE- ll sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.33.A point moves us above Scorpions SC PRE- ll on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Stars Pre- White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East Coast Surf Pre- ll – FC Stars Pre- White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.25 PPG |
5th— holds | 7th▼ down 2 | 10th▼ down 5 |
| Win 1.75 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
5th— holds | 7th▼ down 2 | 10th▼ down 5 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 3 | 8th▼ down 3 | 11th▼ down 6 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 19%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 16%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 13%
- 8th 9%
- 9th 7%
- 10th 4%
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Select Pre- White | 3.00 (+1.67) | 1st (2.63) | 62 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection |
| 2 | SUSA FC Pre- ll | 3.00 (+1.67) | 2nd (2.55) | 62 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection |
| 3 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II | 2.00 (+0.67) | 3rd (1.45) | 40 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 4 | Scorpions SC PRE- ll | 1.50 (+0.17) | 9th (1.28) | A point next game |
How the results connect
1 chain · 4 teams
Paths of results that link East Coast Surf Pre- ll to FC Stars Pre- White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.09 · 2nd hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 13 09:00 AM no score posted |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 12th · 0-0-3 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
FC Stars Pre- White 8th · 0-1-0 · GD +0 |
Home cedar creek park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.62 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Scorpions SC PRE- ll 4th · 1-0-1 · GD -2 |
Home Holy Trinity high school |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.77 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 03:30 PM |
FSA FC Pre- ll 10th · 0-3-2 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.69 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Connecticut FC Pre ll 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
CFC Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.39 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.29 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
SUSA FC Pre- ll 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Home Holy Trinity high school |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.55 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Manhattan SC Pre- White 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.38 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
FSA FC Pre- ll 10th · 0-3-2 · GD -10 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
3–1 | 2.01 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Connecticut FC Pre ll 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–2 | 1.72 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
AC Connecticut Pre- II 11th · 1-0-4 · GD -17 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
3–1 | 2.40 | 1.56 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 12th · 0-0-3 · GD -11 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.35 | 1.62 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 9th · 2-2-4 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.71 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
FC Stars Pre- White 8th · 0-1-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.30 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 10:30 AM |
Scorpions SC PRE- ll 4th · 1-0-1 · GD -2 |
Away Taunton Forekicks |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
2–1 | 1.47 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.61 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre- ll 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–3 | 0.38 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Select Pre- White 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +27 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.29 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Select Pre- White 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +27 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.46 | 1.43 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Select Pre- White | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 5 | +27 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.70 | -0.18 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Scorpions SC PRE- ll · Sat Oct 24 vs SUSA FC Pre- ll · Thu Oct 29 at FC Stars Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SUSA FC Pre- ll | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | +20 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.96 | +0.01 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Select Pre- White · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 at East Coast Surf Pre- ll See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWLD | -0.95 | +0.26 | 37% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 vs East Coast Surf Pre- ll · Sat Nov 14 at Manhattan SC Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Scorpions SC PRE- ll | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.23 | +0.04 | 16% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Select Pre- White · Sat Oct 24 at Manhattan SC Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf Pre- ll See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | East Coast Surf Pre- ll | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | LDW | -0.73 | +0.09 | 37% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Stars Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC PRE- ll See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Manhattan SC Pre- White | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | -0.25 | +0.04 | 21% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Scorpions SC PRE- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Stars Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 at Connecticut FC Pre ll See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Connecticut FC Pre ll | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | +0.92 | -0.27 | 37% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sat Oct 31 vs Manhattan SC Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FC Stars Pre- White | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 1 | 1.00 | D | -0.87 | +0.02 | 34% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at Manhattan SC Pre- White · Thu Oct 29 vs Select Pre- White See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 8 | 1.00 | LWLLL | +0.49 | -0.26 | 16% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Stars Pre- White · Sat Nov 7 at AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sun Nov 8 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FSA FC Pre- ll | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | LDDLD | +0.96 | -0.21 | 3% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf Pre- ll See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | AC Connecticut Pre- II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +1.06 | -0.10 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Connecticut FC Pre ll · Sun Oct 25 at FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 1 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.60 | +0.05 | 0% | 11.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs East Coast Surf Pre- ll · Sat Oct 24 at FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at Connecticut FC Pre ll See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.