Manhattan SC Pre- White
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU11 · 12 teams · Manhattan SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:45 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.9 against · 1.64 expected points)
| Season so far | Manhattan SC Pre- White | Scorpions SC PRE- ll |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 1-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L L L | W L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White | 2–1 vs SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll |
| Worst loss | 1–8 at Select Pre- White | 1–4 at Connecticut FC Pre ll |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.17 | -0.35 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.25 | -0.23 |
Common opponents: SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll — we 0–1; they 2–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 20% / loss 32%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
East Coast Surf Pre- ll sit 5th on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.20.A point moves us above East Coast Surf Pre- ll on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Scorpions SC PRE- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Manhattan SC Pre- White – Scorpions SC PRE- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 5 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 3 | 11th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 11%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 14%
- 7th 15%
- 8th 13%
- 9th 13%
- 10th 10%
- 11th 2%
- 12th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.59 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Select Pre- White | 3.00 (+1.80) | 1st (2.63) | 60 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | SUSA FC Pre- ll | 3.00 (+1.80) | 2nd (2.55) | 60 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection |
| 3 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II | 2.00 (+0.80) | 3rd (1.45) | 38 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 4 | Scorpions SC PRE- ll | 1.50 (+0.30) | 9th (1.28) | Win next game |
| 5 | East Coast Surf Pre- ll | 1.33 (+0.13) | 5th (1.43) | A point next game |
How the results connect
5 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Manhattan SC Pre- White to Scorpions SC PRE- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.04 · 4th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:45 AM |
Scorpions SC PRE- ll 4th · 1-0-1 · GD -2 |
Home Randall's Island |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.64 | 1.27 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 11:45 AM |
FC Stars Pre- White 8th · 0-1-0 · GD +0 |
Home Randall's Island |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.48 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:30 PM |
Connecticut FC Pre ll 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
CFC Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 11:30 AM |
FSA FC Pre- ll 10th · 0-3-2 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.56 | 1.33 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 10:15 AM |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +3 |
Home College of Mt. St. Vincent |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.48 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 10:30 AM |
SUSA FC Pre- ll 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–3 | 0.31 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
East Coast Surf Pre- ll 5th · 1-1-1 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.42 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Connecticut FC Pre ll 7th · 2-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
FSA FC Pre- ll 10th · 0-3-2 · GD -10 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–2 | 1.88 | 1.33 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 12th · 0-0-3 · GD -11 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.26 | 1.39 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
AC Connecticut Pre- II 11th · 1-0-4 · GD -17 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.31 | 1.45 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 PM |
Select Pre- White 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +27 |
Home Randall's Island |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–4 | 0.37 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 10:30 AM |
Scorpions SC PRE- ll 4th · 1-0-1 · GD -2 |
Away Taunton Forekicks |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.34 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
FC Stars Pre- White 8th · 0-1-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.16 | 1.37 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre- ll 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–2 | 0.46 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 08:00 AM |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–2 | 1.15 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 9th · 2-2-4 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.27 | 1.31 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Select Pre- White | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 5 | +27 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.70 | -0.18 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Scorpions SC PRE- ll · Sat Oct 24 vs SUSA FC Pre- ll · Thu Oct 29 at FC Stars Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SUSA FC Pre- ll | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | +20 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.96 | +0.01 | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Select Pre- White · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 at East Coast Surf Pre- ll See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWLD | -0.95 | +0.26 | 36% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 vs East Coast Surf Pre- ll · Sat Nov 14 at Manhattan SC Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Scorpions SC PRE- ll | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.23 | +0.04 | 17% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Select Pre- White · Sat Oct 24 at Manhattan SC Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf Pre- ll See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | East Coast Surf Pre- ll | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | LDW | -0.73 | +0.09 | 37% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Stars Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC PRE- ll See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Manhattan SC Pre- White | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | -0.25 | +0.04 | 21% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Scorpions SC PRE- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Stars Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 at Connecticut FC Pre ll See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Connecticut FC Pre ll | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | +0.92 | -0.27 | 37% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sat Oct 31 vs Manhattan SC Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FC Stars Pre- White | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 1 | 1.00 | D | -0.87 | +0.02 | 34% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at Manhattan SC Pre- White · Thu Oct 29 vs Select Pre- White See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 8 | 1.00 | LWLLL | +0.49 | -0.26 | 15% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Stars Pre- White · Sat Nov 7 at AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sun Nov 8 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FSA FC Pre- ll | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 3 | 0.60 | LDDLD | +0.96 | -0.21 | 3% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf Pre- ll See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | AC Connecticut Pre- II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +1.06 | -0.10 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Connecticut FC Pre ll · Sun Oct 25 at FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 1 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.60 | +0.05 | 0% | 11.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs East Coast Surf Pre- ll · Sat Oct 24 at FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at Connecticut FC Pre ll See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.