TableChase Clubs

Tulsa SC Frontier Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Frontier BU12 · 11 teams · Tulsa Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th
6-2-3 record · 11 played
1.82 points per game
+8 goal diff · 29–21
DLWWWlast 5
60% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5
-0.20 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 02:00 PM

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Tulsa SC Frontier Pre
4th · 1.82 PPG
vs
Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II
10th · 0.64 PPG

Jenks Sports Complex , Field 5 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.9 for, 1.6 against · 2.46 expected points)

Season so farTulsa SC Frontier PreArkansas Comets FC Pre- II
Position4th10th
Record (W-D-L)6-2-32-1-8
Points per game1.820.64
Goals for / game2.61.9
Goals against / game1.93.7
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W L DD L L L L
Biggest win5–1 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White6–3 vs Arkansas Rising Pre
Worst loss1–4 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre0–7 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.51-1.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.20-0.24

Already played this season: Sun Oct 11 2–1 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II (W)

Common opponents: Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre — we 2–2; they 2–3, 1–4. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre — we 1–4; they 0–7. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White — we 5–1; they 2–3. Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White — we 1–3, 4–0; they 2–0. West Side Alliance Pre — we 3–1; they 0–6. FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II — we 2–2; they 1–4. Arkansas Rising Pre — we 3–0; they 6–3, 4–4. Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I — we 4–2; they 2–5.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II concede 3.7/game; worst result 0–7 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tulsa SC Frontier Pre – Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.92 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Win
1.92 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Draw
1.75 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.67 PPG		 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
60% top 4
40% below the top 4
4.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 55%
  5. 5th 26%
  6. 6th 10%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.35 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 2.78 (+0.96) 1st (2.69) 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2.71 (+0.89) 2nd (2.45) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 2.10 (+0.28) 3rd (2.10) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection

How the results connect

92 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Tulsa SC Frontier Pre to Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

71 favour us
9 even
12 favour them
+2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 3–0 3–6 2–2 3–2 4–0 0–2 4–4 2–2 4–1 4–1 1–3 1–4 7–0 4–2 5–2 5–1 3–2 3–1 6–0 Tulsa SC Frontier P… 4th Arkansas Rising Pre 9th Broken Arrow Soccer… 6th Oklahoma Celtic Pre… 11th FC Tulsa Academy Pr… 5th OK Energy FC Fronti… 1st Arkansas Comets FC … 3rd OK Energy FC Fronti… 8th West Side Alliance … 7th Arkansas Comets FC … 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.22 · 6th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 12
01:00 PM
no score posted		 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre
6th · 5-2-4 · GD -4		 Away
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–2 1.70 1.81 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II
10th · 2-1-8 · GD -20		 Home
Jenks Sports Complex 		●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 3–1 2.46 1.86 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I
3rd · 7-0-3 · GD +26		 Home
Jenks Sports Complex 		●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–3 1.03 1.80 Upside
Sun Nov 15
03:30 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +4		 Away
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.38 1.77 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:30 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +18		 Away
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–2 0.63 1.70 Upside
Sat Dec 5
01:30 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre
7th · 4-2-4 · GD +7		 Away
RiverCity Parks		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.31 1.68 Upside
Sun Dec 13
12:00 PM		 Arkansas Rising Pre
9th · 2-1-7 · GD -26		 Home
Jenks Sports Complex 		●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 4–1 2.58 1.73 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
03:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White
8th · 2-1-6 · GD -16		 Home
Jenks Sports Complex 		●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–1 2.38 1.76 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
11:00 AM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +32		 Home
Jenks Sports Complex 		●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–2 0.48 1.70 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 9810 353+32 252.78 WWWDW -0.06 -0.37 100% 1.2
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 7610 246+18 192.71 WWWWD +0.29 -0.36 100% 2.0
3 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 10703 4418+26 212.10 WLWLW -0.38 +0.07 99% 3.0
4 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 11623 2921+8 201.82 DLWWW -0.20 +0.22 60% 4.5
5 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 6312 1612+4 101.67 WLDLW -0.20 +0.14 24% 5.4
6 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 11524 2529-4 171.55 WLWWL -0.10 +0.24 4% 6.2
7 West Side Alliance Pre 10424 2720+7 141.40 LDLWW -0.26 +0.24 13% 5.8
8 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 9216 824-16 70.78 LWWLL +0.37 -0.03 0% 8.6
9 Arkansas Rising Pre 10217 1743-26 70.70 WLWDL +0.10 +0.32 0% 9.3
10 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II 11218 2141-20 70.64 LLLLD -0.24 +0.64 0% 9.4
11 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White 10109 1140-29 30.30 LLLLL +0.18 +0.37 0% 10.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.39 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.