Arkansas Rising Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Frontier BU12 · 11 teams · Arkansas Rising Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.8 for, 3.7 against · 0.54 expected points)
| Season so far | Arkansas Rising Pre | West Side Alliance Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Points per game | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals against / game | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L D W L W | W W L D L |
| Biggest win | 3–1 vs Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White | 6–0 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II |
| Worst loss | 1–7 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre | 0–4 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.87 | +0.41 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.10 | -0.26 |
Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 0–2 at West Side Alliance Pre (L)
Common opponents: FC Tulsa Academy Pre — we 1–7; they 0–4. Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II — we 3–6, 4–4; they 6–0. Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I — we 2–7, 1–6; they 1–3. Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White — we 3–1; they 6–0, 6–2. Tulsa SC Frontier Pre — we 0–3; they 1–3. Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre — we 2–1; they 4–4.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at West Side Alliance Pre, 0–3 vs Tulsa SC Frontier Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White sit 8th on 0.78 PPG; we are on 0.70.A point moves us above OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arkansas Rising Pre – West Side Alliance Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.64 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.91 PPG |
8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.73 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.64 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 22%
- 9th 33%
- 10th 34%
- 11th 10%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 1.85 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre | 2.78 (+2.08) | 1st (2.69) | 49 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre | 2.71 (+2.01) | 2nd (2.45) | 48 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I | 2.10 (+1.40) | 3rd (2.10) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Tulsa SC Frontier Pre | 1.82 (+1.12) | 4th (1.70) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 5 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II | 1.67 (+0.97) | 5th (1.53) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 6 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre | 1.55 (+0.85) | 7th (1.38) | 24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 7 | West Side Alliance Pre | 1.40 (+0.70) | 6th (1.44) | 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 8 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White | 0.78 (+0.08) | 8th (0.80) | A point next game |
How the results connect
78 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Arkansas Rising Pre to West Side Alliance Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.32 · 3rd hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
West Side Alliance Pre 7th · 4-2-4 · GD +7 |
Home Burns Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 0.69 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 1st · 8-1-0 · GD +32 |
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.04 | 0.63 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 8th · 2-1-6 · GD -16 |
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–2 | 1.19 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White 11th · 1-0-9 · GD -29 |
Away far trip
Oklahoma Celtic |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.53 | 0.74 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +4 |
Home Burns Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.60 | 0.73 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 12:00 PM |
FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +18 |
Home Burns Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.18 | 0.69 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM |
Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 6th · 5-2-4 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Indian Springs Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.59 | 0.69 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 12:00 PM |
Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 4th · 6-2-3 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Jenks Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–4 | 0.33 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 03:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 8th · 2-1-6 · GD -16 |
Home Burns Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
2–1 | 1.48 | 0.71 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 12:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 1st · 8-1-0 · GD +32 |
Home Burns Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.07 | 0.68 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 3 | +32 | 25 | 2.78 | WWWDW | -0.06 | -0.37 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Rising Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWWD | +0.29 | -0.36 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II · Sat Oct 24 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II · Fri Oct 30 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 44 | 18 | +26 | 21 | 2.10 | WLWLW | -0.38 | +0.07 | 99% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Tulsa SC Frontier Pre | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 20 | 1.82 | DLWWW | -0.20 | +0.22 | 60% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 10 | 1.67 | WLDLW | -0.20 | +0.14 | 24% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre · Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 17 | 1.55 | WLWWL | -0.10 | +0.24 | 5% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Tulsa SC Frontier Pre · Sat Oct 10 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I · Fri Oct 30 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | West Side Alliance Pre | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 14 | 1.40 | LDLWW | -0.26 | +0.24 | 13% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 7 | 0.78 | LWWLL | +0.37 | -0.03 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Rising Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Arkansas Rising Pre | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 7 | 0.70 | WLWDL | +0.10 | +0.32 | 0% | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance Pre · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 7 | 0.64 | LLLLD | -0.24 | +0.64 | 0% | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White · Sun Nov 1 at Tulsa SC Frontier Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 | 0.30 | LLLLL | +0.18 | +0.37 | 0% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.39 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.