TableChase Clubs

Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Frontier BU12 · 11 teams · Broken Arrow Soccer Club (all teams)

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6th
5-2-4 record · 11 played
1.55 points per game
-4 goal diff · 25–29
WLWWLlast 5
4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.2
-0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 30, 06:00 PM

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Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre
6th · 1.55 PPG
at
FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 2.71 PPG

Indian Springs Soccer Complex, Field 37S ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.2 for, 3.7 against · 0.34 expected points)

Season so farBroken Arrow Soccer Club PreFC Tulsa Academy Pre
Position6th2nd
Record (W-D-L)5-2-46-1-0
Points per game1.552.71
Goals for / game2.33.4
Goals against / game2.60.9
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W W L WD W W W W
Biggest win4–1 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II7–1 vs Arkansas Rising Pre
Worst loss1–8 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.34+1.78
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.10+0.29

Already played this season: Fri Sep 25 1–3 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre (L)

Common opponents: Tulsa SC Frontier Pre — we 2–2; they 5–2. West Side Alliance Pre — we 4–4; they 4–0. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre — we 0–3; they 1–1. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White — we 2–0; they 2–0. Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I — we 1–8; they 2–1. Arkansas Rising Pre — we 1–2; they 7–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FC Tulsa Academy Pre score 3.4/game — well above the league's 2.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    FC Tulsa Academy Pre concede only 0.9/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 8%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 06:00 PM at Indian Springs Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Tulsa Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre – FC Tulsa Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.42 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Win
1.67 PPG		 6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 7th▼ down 1
Draw
1.50 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.42 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
4% top 4
96% below the top 4
6.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 33%
  7. 7th 46%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 2.78 (+1.23) 1st (2.69) 39 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2.71 (+1.16) 2nd (2.45) 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 2.10 (+0.55) 3rd (2.10) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 1.82 (+0.27) 4th (1.70) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
5 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 1.67 (+0.12) 5th (1.53) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection

How the results connect

61 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre to FC Tulsa Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
6 even
52 favour them
-3.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 2–0 0–2 0–3 1–1 2–2 2–5 4–4 0–4 1–2 1–7 1–8 1–2 4–1 6–3 2–3 4–3 6–1 1–0 5–0 Broken Arrow Soccer… 6th OK Energy FC Fronti… 8th OK Energy FC Fronti… 1st Tulsa SC Frontier P… 4th West Side Alliance … 7th Arkansas Rising Pre 9th Arkansas Comets FC … 3rd Arkansas Comets FC … 10th FC Tulsa Academy Pr… 5th FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.24 · 4th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 12
01:00 PM
no score posted		 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre
4th · 6-2-3 · GD +8		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 2–2 1.11 1.51 Upside
Sat Oct 10
12:30 PM
no score posted		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I
3rd · 7-0-3 · GD +26		 Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–4 0.38 1.42 Upside
Fri Oct 30
06:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +18		 Away
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–3 0.34 1.35 Upside
Sun Nov 1
03:30 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +4		 Away
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
25%		 1–2 0.94 1.32 Upside
Thu Nov 5
07:30 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre
7th · 4-2-4 · GD +7		 Away
RiverCity Parks		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.87 1.29 Upside
Sun Dec 6
02:00 PM		 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White
11th · 1-0-9 · GD -29		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.43 1.36 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
01:00 PM		 Arkansas Rising Pre
9th · 2-1-7 · GD -26		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.28 1.41 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
03:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White
8th · 2-1-6 · GD -16		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.08 1.44 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
11:00 AM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +32		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.26 1.38 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 9810 353+32 252.78 WWWDW -0.06 -0.37 100% 1.2
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 7610 246+18 192.71 WWWWD +0.29 -0.36 100% 2.0
3 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 10703 4418+26 212.10 WLWLW -0.38 +0.07 99% 3.0
4 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 11623 2921+8 201.82 DLWWW -0.20 +0.22 60% 4.5
5 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 6312 1612+4 101.67 WLDLW -0.20 +0.14 24% 5.4
6 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 11524 2529-4 171.55 WLWWL -0.10 +0.24 4% 6.2
7 West Side Alliance Pre 10424 2720+7 141.40 LDLWW -0.26 +0.24 12% 5.8
8 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 9216 824-16 70.78 LWWLL +0.37 -0.03 0% 8.6
9 Arkansas Rising Pre 10217 1743-26 70.70 WLWDL +0.10 +0.32 0% 9.3
10 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II 11218 2141-20 70.64 LLLLD -0.24 +0.64 0% 9.4
11 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White 10109 1140-29 30.30 LLLLL +0.18 +0.37 0% 10.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.39 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.