TableChase Clubs

FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Frontier BU12 · 11 teams · FC Tulsa Academy (all teams)

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5th
3-1-2 record · 6 played
1.67 points per game
+4 goal diff · 16–12
WLDLWlast 5
24% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.4
-0.20 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, TBD

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FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
5th · 1.67 PPG
vs
FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 2.71 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.7 against · 0.75 expected points)

Season so farFC Tulsa Academy Pre- IIFC Tulsa Academy Pre
Position5th2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-26-1-0
Points per game1.672.71
Goals for / game2.73.4
Goals against / game2.00.9
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W L D L WD W W W W
Biggest win6–1 vs Arkansas Rising Pre7–1 vs Arkansas Rising Pre
Worst loss0–4 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.28+1.78
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.20+0.29

Common opponents: Arkansas Rising Pre — we 6–1; they 7–1. Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre — we 3–4; they 3–1. Tulsa SC Frontier Pre — we 2–2; they 5–2. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre — we 0–4; they 1–1. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White — we 1–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FC Tulsa Academy Pre score 3.4/game — well above the league's 2.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    FC Tulsa Academy Pre concede only 0.9/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Tulsa SC Frontier Pre sit 4th on 1.82 PPG; we are on 1.67.

    A point moves us above Tulsa SC Frontier Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Tulsa Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II – FC Tulsa Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.43 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2
Win
1.86 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1
Draw
1.57 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.43 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
24% top 4
77% below the top 4
5.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 31%
  6. 6th 25%
  7. 7th 20%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 2.78 (+1.11) 1st (2.69) 46 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2.71 (+1.04) 2nd (2.45) 45 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
3 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 2.10 (+0.43) 3rd (2.10) 32 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 1.82 (+0.15) 4th (1.70) A point next game

How the results connect

41 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II to FC Tulsa Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
3 even
35 favour them
-2.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–2 6–1 1–7 2–2 2–5 3–4 1–3 0–4 1–1 4–1 6–3 2–3 2–3 5–0 4–2 1–2 2–0 0–2 0–4 FC Tulsa Academy Pr… 5th OK Energy FC Fronti… 8th Arkansas Rising Pre 9th Tulsa SC Frontier P… 4th Broken Arrow Soccer… 6th OK Energy FC Fronti… 1st Arkansas Comets FC … 10th Arkansas Comets FC … 3rd West Side Alliance … 7th FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 6th 11th Aug 22 Aug 30 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 7th hardest of 11

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
01:00 PM
no score posted		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +18		 Away
Keas Soccer Complex 		●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–3 0.53 1.50 Upside
Sat Oct 24
TBD		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +18		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.75 1.41 Upside
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre
7th · 4-2-4 · GD +7		 Away
RiverCity Parks		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 2–2 1.17 1.38 Upside
Sun Nov 1
03:30 PM		 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre
6th · 5-2-4 · GD -4		 Home
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.89 1.44 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 West Side Alliance Pre
7th · 4-2-4 · GD +7		 Home
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–2 1.49 1.44 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
03:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +32		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.27 1.34 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White
8th · 2-1-6 · GD -16		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.07 1.40 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
03:30 PM		 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre
4th · 6-2-3 · GD +8		 Home
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.43 1.40 Upside
Sat Nov 21
10:00 AM		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II
10th · 2-1-8 · GD -20		 Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.10 1.45 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
11:30 AM		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I
3rd · 7-0-3 · GD +26		 Away far trip
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.61 1.39 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM		 Arkansas Rising Pre
9th · 2-1-7 · GD -26		 Away far trip
Burns Park 		●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.27 1.45 Bank it
Sun Dec 13
12:00 PM		 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White
11th · 1-0-9 · GD -29		 Away far trip
Oklahoma Celtic		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.42 1.50 Bank it
Sun Feb 28
03:30 PM		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I
3rd · 7-0-3 · GD +26		 Home
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 2–3 0.89 1.47 Upside
Sat Mar 6
03:30 PM		 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White
11th · 1-0-9 · GD -29		 Home
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 4–1 2.62 1.53 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 9810 353+32 252.78 WWWDW -0.06 -0.37 100% 1.2
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 7610 246+18 192.71 WWWWD +0.29 -0.36 100% 2.0
3 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- I 10703 4418+26 212.10 WLWLW -0.38 +0.07 99% 3.0
4 Tulsa SC Frontier Pre 11623 2921+8 201.82 DLWWW -0.20 +0.22 60% 4.5
5 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 6312 1612+4 101.67 WLDLW -0.20 +0.14 24% 5.4
6 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 11524 2529-4 171.55 WLWWL -0.10 +0.24 4% 6.2
7 West Side Alliance Pre 10424 2720+7 141.40 LDLWW -0.26 +0.24 13% 5.8
8 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre- White 9216 824-16 70.78 LWWLL +0.37 -0.03 0% 8.6
9 Arkansas Rising Pre 10217 1743-26 70.70 WLWDL +0.10 +0.32 0% 9.3
10 Arkansas Comets FC Pre- II 11218 2141-20 70.64 LLLLD -0.24 +0.64 0% 9.4
11 Oklahoma Celtic Pre- White 10109 1140-29 30.30 LLLLL +0.18 +0.37 0% 10.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.39 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.