TableChase Clubs

San Juan South

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU18/19 · 28 teams · San Juan South Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
Add schedule to calendar
3rd
6-0-1 record · 7 played
2.57 points per game
+36 goal diff · 37–1
WWLWWlast 5
88% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5
-0.44 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

Open the match preview →

San Juan South
3rd · 2.57 PPG
vs
West Coast Soccer -RL
6th · 2.50 PPG

SAN JOAQUIN DELTA COLLEGE, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.0 against · 2.51 expected points)

Season so farSan Juan SouthWest Coast Soccer -RL
Position3rd6th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-15-0-1
Points per game2.572.50
Goals for / game5.33.2
Goals against / game0.11.2
Clean sheets63
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W L W WW W W W L
Biggest win10–0 vs East County Revolution FC /097–0 at Santa Cruz United FC
Worst loss0–1 at Walnut Creek Surf0–2 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+3.41+1.28
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.44+0.19

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    West Coast Soccer -RL score 3.2/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Walnut Creek Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • They arrive in form
    West Coast Soccer -RL have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Alameda Soccer Club Islanders sit 2nd on 2.60 PPG; we are on 2.57.

    A point moves us above Alameda Soccer Club Islanders on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Coast Soccer -RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Juan South – West Coast Soccer -RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 12 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.63 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.63 PPG		 2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.38 PPG		 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2
Loss
2.25 PPG		 7th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

37% finish 1st
88% top 4
12% below the top 4
2.5 average finish
  1. 1st 37%
  2. 2nd 24%
  3. 3rd 16%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th
  26. 26th
  27. 27th
  28. 28th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 3.00 (+0.43) 2nd (2.48) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
2 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 2.60 (+0.03) 3rd (2.46) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link San Juan South to West Coast Soccer -RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
8–0 0–1 0–7 2–5 0–4 9–0 0–5 3–4 1–3 10–0 2–2 1–0 5–0 0–1 5–0 1–2 2–0 1–2 2–3 San Juan South 3rd San Ramon FC -RL 25th North Coast FC BLUE… 28th East County Revolut… 24th Granite Bay FC Bobc… 5th Stanford Strikers 16th Santa Cruz United FC 15th Livermore Fusion SC 13th Palo Alto SC 9th Folsom Lake Surf 22nd Los Gatos United So… 1st Santa Clara Sporting 18th West Coast Soccer -… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 14th 28th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.60 · 4th hardest of 28

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 West Coast Soccer -RL
6th · 5-0-1 · GD +12		 Home
SAN JOAQUIN DELTA COLLEGE		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–1 2.51 2.56 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
11:30 AM		 Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red
21st · 2-1-4 · GD -11		 Home
St. Mary's High School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 5–0 2.93 2.60 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM		 Reno APEX Soccer Club
8th · 5-0-2 · GD +19		 Away far trip
Lyman Gilmore 11v11		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.24 2.57 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
02:00 PM		 Elk Grove Soccer
20th · 2-0-4 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Hal Bartholomew Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 4–0 2.88 2.60 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM		 Napa United
19th · 2-1-4 · GD -9		 Home
SAN JOAQUIN DELTA COLLEGE		 ●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 4–0 2.93 2.62 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
02:00 PM		 Palo Alto SC
9th · 4-0-2 · GD +18		 Home
SAN JOAQUIN DELTA COLLEGE		 ●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 3–1 2.46 2.61 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +19		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 2–1 1.96 2.56 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Burlingame SC
17th · 3-0-4 · GD -9		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 4–0 2.89 2.59 Bank it
Sun May 2
02:00 PM		 Union FC
7th · 5-1-1 · GD +24		 Home
SAN JOAQUIN DELTA COLLEGE		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–1 2.15 2.56 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 6600 154+11 183.00 WWWWW +0.28 -0.37 75% 3.3
2 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 5410 223+19 132.60 WWWWD -0.54 -0.68 80% 3.2
3 San Juan South 7601 371+36 182.57 WWLWW -0.44 +0.60 88% 2.5
4 South Valley United Soccer Club 7601 189+9 182.57 LWWWW +0.18 -0.21 22% 6.6
5 Granite Bay FC Bobcats 6501 225+17 152.50 LWWWW +1.08 +0.04 70% 3.6
6 West Coast Soccer -RL 6501 197+12 152.50 LWWWW +0.19 -0.47 30% 5.7
7 Union FC 7511 295+24 162.29 WLDWW -0.54 +0.93 17% 7.1
8 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7502 2910+19 152.14 LWWLW +0.05 +0.35 14% 6.9
9 Palo Alto SC 6402 257+18 122.00 WWWLL -0.50 +1.08 1% 10.8
10 Solano Surf 6402 147+7 122.00 WLWLW -0.91 +0.03 1% 11.5
11 Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 6402 1610+6 122.00 LLWWW -0.26 +0.11 2% 10.7
12 Eastshore Alliance FC 7403 2413+11 121.71 WLWLW -0.90 -0.81 2% 9.5
13 Livermore Fusion SC 7403 2418+6 121.71 LWWLW -0.54 +0.12 0% 13.6
14 Walnut Creek Surf 7313 1113-2 101.43 WLWLD +0.56 -0.71 0% 13.7
15 Santa Cruz United FC 7313 915-6 101.43 LLWWD -0.48 +0.90 0% 19.4
16 Stanford Strikers 7304 1313+0 91.29 WWLLL +0.54 -1.15 0% 12.8
17 Burlingame SC 7304 1019-9 91.29 WWLWL -0.50 -0.01 0% 17.9
18 Santa Clara Sporting 6204 1320-7 61.00 LWLWL -0.17 -0.08 0% 17.7
19 Napa United 7214 817-9 71.00 WLLLL +0.03 +0.52 0% 20.5
20 Elk Grove Soccer 6204 717-10 61.00 LWLWL +0.03 +0.42 0% 20.6
21 Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red 7214 1122-11 71.00 LWLWL +0.85 +0.05 0% 18.5
22 Folsom Lake Surf 5113 39-6 40.80 LWLDL +1.45 -0.18 0% 18.3
23 SF United FC 7106 635-29 30.43 LLLLW -0.08 -0.42 0% 24.7
24 East County Revolution FC /09 5014 418-14 10.20 LLLLD +0.47 +0.41 0% 24.6
25 San Ramon FC -RL 6015 626-20 10.17 LLLLL +0.33 -0.51 0% 23.9
26 Cal Magic 6015 936-27 10.17 LLLLL +0.02 -0.37 0% 25.2
27 Association FC 6006 422-18 00.00 LLLLL -0.32 -0.15 0% 26.3
28 North Coast FC BLUEECNL RL 6006 128-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 +0.12 0% 27.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.