Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red
ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU18/19 · 28 teams · Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
College Park High School, CP Turf ↗ · turf
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.4 for, 3.2 against · 1.01 expected points)
| Season so far | Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red | Livermore Fusion SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 21st | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-4 | 4-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 3.4 |
| Goals against / game | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W L | W L W W L |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs Eastshore Alliance FC | 8–1 vs Cal Magic |
| Worst loss | 2–8 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 0–4 vs West Coast Soccer -RL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.75 | +0.28 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.85 | -0.54 |
Common opponents: Alameda Soccer Club Islanders — we 2–8; they 0–3. Los Gatos United Soccer Club — we 0–2; they 1–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Livermore Fusion SC score 3.4/game — well above the league's 2.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 28%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Elk Grove Soccer sit 20th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Elk Grove Soccer on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Livermore Fusion SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red – Livermore Fusion SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 12 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.88 PPG |
21st— holds | 20th▲ up 1 | 22nd▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.25 PPG |
18th▲ up 3 | 17th▲ up 4 | 20th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
21st— holds | 20th▲ up 1 | 22nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.88 PPG |
21st— holds | 20th▲ up 1 | 22nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–3 loss we finish as high as 20th if every rival drops points, and as low as 22nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th <1%
- 14th 2%
- 15th 4%
- 16th 12%
- 17th 18%
- 18th 19%
- 19th 16%
- 20th 12%
- 21st 9%
- 22nd 5%
- 23rd 2%
- 24th 1%
- 25th <1%
- 26th
- 27th
- 28th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.07 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 3.00 (+2.00) | 2nd (2.48) | 38 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 2.60 (+1.60) | 3rd (2.46) | 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | San Juan South | 2.57 (+1.57) | 1st (2.56) | 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 2.57 (+1.57) | 6th (2.17) | 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Granite Bay FC Bobcats | 2.50 (+1.50) | 4th (2.42) | 31 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | West Coast Soccer -RL | 2.50 (+1.50) | 5th (2.25) | 31 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Union FC | 2.29 (+1.29) | 8th (2.12) | 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 2.14 (+1.14) | 7th (2.13) | 26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | Palo Alto SC | 2.00 (+1.00) | 11th (1.80) | 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 10 | Solano Surf | 2.00 (+1.00) | 12th (1.76) | 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 11 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 | 2.00 (+1.00) | 10th (1.83) | 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 12 | Eastshore Alliance FC | 1.71 (+0.71) | 9th (1.92) | 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 13 | Livermore Fusion SC | 1.71 (+0.71) | 15th (1.56) | 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 14 | Walnut Creek Surf | 1.43 (+0.43) | 14th (1.56) | 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 15 | Santa Cruz United FC | 1.43 (+0.43) | 20th (1.00) | 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection |
| 16 | Stanford Strikers | 1.29 (+0.29) | 13th (1.65) | 13 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 17 | Burlingame SC | 1.29 (+0.29) | 17th (1.14) | 13 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 18 | Santa Clara Sporting | 1.00 (+0.00) | 16th (1.15) | A point next game |
| 19 | Napa United | 1.00 (+0.00) | 22nd (0.89) | A point next game |
| 20 | Elk Grove Soccer | 1.00 (+0.00) | 21st (0.90) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red to Livermore Fusion SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.05 · 12th hardest of 28
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Livermore Fusion SC 13th · 4-0-3 · GD +6 |
Home College Park High School · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 1.01 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 11:30 AM |
San Juan South 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +36 |
Away far trip
St. Mary's High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.05 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM |
Cal Magic 26th · 0-1-5 · GD -27 |
Home College Park High School · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
4–1 | 2.43 | 1.05 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
SF United FC 23rd · 1-0-6 · GD -29 |
Home College Park High School · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.48 | 1.18 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
Granite Bay FC Bobcats 5th · 5-0-1 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Bayside Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–4 | 0.16 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 02:00 PM |
Solano Surf 10th · 4-0-2 · GD +7 |
Away Octo Inn Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.64 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Palo Alto SC 9th · 4-0-2 · GD +18 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.27 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 11:00 AM |
Association FC 27th · 0-0-6 · GD -18 |
Home College Park High School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.27 | 1.09 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.28 | -0.37 | 74% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 3 | +19 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWWD | -0.54 | -0.68 | 79% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Association FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | San Juan South | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | +36 | 18 | 2.57 | WWLWW | -0.44 | +0.60 | 88% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 1 vs Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 18 | 2.57 | LWWWW | +0.18 | -0.21 | 21% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 at East County Revolution FC /09 · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Cruz United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Granite Bay FC Bobcats | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | +1.08 | +0.04 | 66% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 at Palo Alto SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West Coast Soccer -RL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | +0.19 | -0.47 | 32% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Juan South · Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUEECNL RL · Sun Nov 8 vs East County Revolution FC /09 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Union FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 5 | +24 | 16 | 2.29 | WLDWW | -0.54 | +0.93 | 18% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Palo Alto SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 8 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWLW | +0.05 | +0.35 | 17% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan South See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Palo Alto SC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 12 | 2.00 | WWWLL | -0.50 | +1.08 | 1% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Union FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Solano Surf | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | WLWLW | -0.91 | +0.03 | 1% | 11.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Palo Alto SC · Sat Nov 7 at Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 12 | 2.00 | LLWWW | -0.26 | +0.11 | 2% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Eastshore Alliance FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 12 | 1.71 | WLWLW | -0.90 | -0.81 | 1% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sun Nov 1 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 · Sun Nov 8 vs North Coast FC BLUEECNL RL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 12 | 1.71 | LWWLW | -0.54 | +0.12 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red · Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Walnut Creek Surf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 | 1.43 | WLWLD | +0.56 | -0.71 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Nov 1 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Santa Cruz United FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 10 | 1.43 | LLWWD | -0.48 | +0.90 | 0% | 19.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Granite Bay FC Bobcats · Sun Nov 1 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 8 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Stanford Strikers | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 9 | 1.29 | WWLLL | +0.54 | -1.15 | 0% | 12.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Burlingame SC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 | 1.29 | WWLWL | -0.50 | -0.01 | 0% | 18.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Santa Clara Sporting | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLWL | -0.17 | -0.08 | 0% | 17.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 1 vs Burlingame SC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Napa United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 | 1.00 | WLLLL | +0.03 | +0.52 | 0% | 20.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 14 vs Cal Magic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Elk Grove Soccer | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLWL | +0.03 | +0.42 | 0% | 20.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Cal Magic · Sun Mar 14 vs San Juan South See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 7 | 1.00 | LWLWL | +0.85 | +0.05 | 0% | 18.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 1 at San Juan South · Sun Mar 14 vs Cal Magic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Folsom Lake Surf | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | LWLDL | +1.45 | -0.18 | 0% | 18.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Palo Alto SC · Sun Oct 25 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | SF United FC | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 35 | -29 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLW | -0.08 | -0.42 | 0% | 24.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUEECNL RL · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | East County Revolution FC /09 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLLD | +0.47 | +0.41 | 0% | 24.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Granite Bay FC Bobcats · Sun Oct 25 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 · Sun Nov 1 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 25 | San Ramon FC -RL | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLL | +0.33 | -0.51 | 0% | 23.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 26 | Cal Magic | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 36 | -27 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLL | +0.02 | -0.37 | 0% | 25.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sat Nov 14 at Napa United · Sun Mar 14 at Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 27 | Association FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 22 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.32 | -0.15 | 0% | 26.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 28 | North Coast FC BLUEECNL RL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 28 | -27 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.80 | +0.12 | 0% | 27.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Eastshore Alliance FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.