Eastshore Alliance FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU18/19 · 28 teams · Eastshore Alliance FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:30 PM
El Cerrito High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.7 for, 1.2 against · 2.75 expected points)
| Season so far | Eastshore Alliance FC | San Ramon FC -RL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 25th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-3 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per game | 1.71 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.9 | 4.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W L W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Cal Magic | — |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs Palo Alto SC | 0–8 at San Juan South |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.79 | -2.04 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.90 | +0.33 |
Common opponents: Cal Magic — we 6–0; they 3–3. Napa United — we 5–0; they 1–3.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
San Ramon FC -RL average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 3 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
San Ramon FC -RL concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–8 at San Juan South.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
San Ramon FC -RL have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the San Ramon FC -RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eastshore Alliance FC – San Ramon FC -RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 12 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.88 PPG |
12th— holds | 10th▲ up 2 | 12th— holds |
| Win 1.88 PPG |
12th— holds | 10th▲ up 2 | 12th— holds |
| Draw 1.63 PPG |
13th▼ down 1 | 13th▼ down 1 | 13th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
13th▼ down 1 | 14th▼ down 2 | 15th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 3%
- 6th 6%
- 7th 10%
- 8th 14%
- 9th 18%
- 10th 17%
- 11th 12%
- 12th 10%
- 13th 5%
- 14th 3%
- 15th 1%
- 16th <1%
- 17th <1%
- 18th
- 19th
- 20th
- 21st
- 22nd
- 23rd
- 24th
- 25th
- 26th
- 27th
- 28th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 3.00 (+1.29) | 2nd (2.48) | 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 2.60 (+0.89) | 3rd (2.46) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | San Juan South | 2.57 (+0.86) | 1st (2.56) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 2.57 (+0.86) | 6th (2.17) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 5 | Granite Bay FC Bobcats | 2.50 (+0.79) | 4th (2.42) | 26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | West Coast Soccer -RL | 2.50 (+0.79) | 5th (2.25) | 26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 7 | Union FC | 2.29 (+0.58) | 8th (2.12) | 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 8 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 2.14 (+0.43) | 7th (2.13) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 9 | Palo Alto SC | 2.00 (+0.29) | 11th (1.80) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 10 | Solano Surf | 2.00 (+0.29) | 12th (1.76) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 11 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 | 2.00 (+0.29) | 10th (1.83) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
How the results connect
9 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link Eastshore Alliance FC to San Ramon FC -RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.81 · 27th hardest of 28
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 04:30 PM |
San Ramon FC -RL 25th · 0-1-5 · GD -20 |
Home El Cerrito High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–1 | 2.75 | 1.84 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 11th · 4-0-2 · GD +6 |
Away Marathon/Tesoro Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.26 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 04:30 PM |
North Coast FC BLUEECNL RL 28th · 0-0-6 · GD -27 |
Home El Cerrito High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.87 | 1.89 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Burlingame SC 17th · 3-0-4 · GD -9 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.21 | 1.92 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Association FC 27th · 0-0-6 · GD -18 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–1 | 2.76 | 1.99 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Elk Grove Soccer 20th · 2-0-4 · GD -10 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 2.02 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 03:00 PM |
Reno APEX Soccer Club 8th · 5-0-2 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
Lyman Gilmore 11v11 |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
2–3 | 0.71 | 1.93 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 01:30 PM |
Folsom Lake Surf 22nd · 1-1-3 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Folsom Lake College · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.86 | 1.92 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.28 | -0.37 | 73% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 3 | +19 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWWD | -0.54 | -0.68 | 80% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Association FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | San Juan South | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | +36 | 18 | 2.57 | WWLWW | -0.44 | +0.60 | 90% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 1 vs Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 18 | 2.57 | LWWWW | +0.18 | -0.21 | 23% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 at East County Revolution FC /09 · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Cruz United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Granite Bay FC Bobcats | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | +1.08 | +0.04 | 68% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 at Palo Alto SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West Coast Soccer -RL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | +0.19 | -0.47 | 31% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Juan South · Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUEECNL RL · Sun Nov 8 vs East County Revolution FC /09 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Union FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 5 | +24 | 16 | 2.29 | WLDWW | -0.54 | +0.93 | 17% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Palo Alto SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 8 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWLW | +0.05 | +0.35 | 15% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan South See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Palo Alto SC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 12 | 2.00 | WWWLL | -0.50 | +1.08 | 1% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Union FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Solano Surf | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | WLWLW | -0.91 | +0.03 | 1% | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Palo Alto SC · Sat Nov 7 at Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 12 | 2.00 | LLWWW | -0.26 | +0.11 | 2% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs East County Revolution FC /09 · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Eastshore Alliance FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 12 | 1.71 | WLWLW | -0.90 | -0.81 | 1% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Ramon FC -RL · Sun Nov 1 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 · Sun Nov 8 vs North Coast FC BLUEECNL RL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 12 | 1.71 | LWWLW | -0.54 | +0.12 | 0% | 13.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red · Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Walnut Creek Surf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 | 1.43 | WLWLD | +0.56 | -0.71 | 0% | 13.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Nov 1 at San Ramon FC -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Santa Cruz United FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 10 | 1.43 | LLWWD | -0.48 | +0.90 | 0% | 19.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Granite Bay FC Bobcats · Sun Nov 1 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 8 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Stanford Strikers | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 9 | 1.29 | WWLLL | +0.54 | -1.15 | 0% | 12.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Burlingame SC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 | 1.29 | WWLWL | -0.50 | -0.01 | 0% | 17.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Santa Clara Sporting | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLWL | -0.17 | -0.08 | 0% | 17.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 1 vs Burlingame SC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Napa United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 | 1.00 | WLLLL | +0.03 | +0.52 | 0% | 20.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 14 vs Cal Magic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Elk Grove Soccer | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLWL | +0.03 | +0.42 | 0% | 20.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Cal Magic · Sun Mar 14 vs San Juan South See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 7 | 1.00 | LWLWL | +0.85 | +0.05 | 0% | 18.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 1 at San Juan South · Sun Mar 14 vs Cal Magic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Folsom Lake Surf | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | LWLDL | +1.45 | -0.18 | 0% | 18.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Palo Alto SC · Sun Oct 25 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | SF United FC | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 35 | -29 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLW | -0.08 | -0.42 | 0% | 24.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUEECNL RL · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | East County Revolution FC /09 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLLD | +0.47 | +0.41 | 0% | 24.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Granite Bay FC Bobcats · Sun Oct 25 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club - G07/08 · Sun Nov 1 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 25 | San Ramon FC -RL | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 26 | -20 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLL | +0.33 | -0.51 | 0% | 23.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 26 | Cal Magic | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 36 | -27 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLL | +0.02 | -0.37 | 0% | 25.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sat Nov 14 at Napa United · Sun Mar 14 at Mt Diablo Mustang Soccer Red See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 27 | Association FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 22 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.32 | -0.15 | 0% | 26.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 28 | North Coast FC BLUEECNL RL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 28 | -27 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.80 | +0.12 | 0% | 27.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Eastshore Alliance FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.