TableChase Clubs

Stanislaus Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU15 · 12 teams · Stanislaus Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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8th
3-1-6 record · 10 played
1.00 points per game
-28 goal diff · 13–41
LWDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.3
+0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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Stanislaus Surf
8th · 1.00 PPG
at
Santa Rosa United
10th · 0.40 PPG

Trione Fields, Trione West ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.9 for, 2.2 against · 1.78 expected points)

Season so farStanislaus SurfSanta Rosa United
Position8th10th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-61-1-8
Points per game1.000.40
Goals for / game1.31.0
Goals against / game4.16.1
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless44
Form (recent first)L L D W LL D L L L
Biggest win3–0 at COSC4–1 vs Pleasanton RAGE
Worst loss0–10 at MVLA0–12 at MVLA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.92-3.35
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.09+1.08

Common opponents: San Juan SC — we 0–9; they 0–8. Bay Area Surf — we 0–2; they 0–3. MVLA — we 0–10; they 0–12, 1–4. Pleasanton RAGE — we 2–1; they 4–1. Placer United — we 0–6; they 1–10. Force — we 3–2; they 2–2, 1–9. Davis Legacy — we 1–6, 2–3; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Santa Rosa United average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.7); blanked in 4 of 10.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Santa Rosa United concede 6.1/game; worst result 0–12 at MVLA.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–9 at San Juan SC, 0–2 at Bay Area Surf, 0–10 at MVLA, 0–6 vs Placer United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 53% / draw 17% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Trione Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Santa Rosa United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Stanislaus Surf – Santa Rosa United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Win
1.18 PPG		 8th— holds 7th▲ up 1 8th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Loss
0.91 PPG		 8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 69%
  9. 9th 24%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.09 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Juan SC 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.80) 56 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 MVLA 2.82 (+1.82) 2nd (2.60) 53 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Bay Area Surf 2.18 (+1.18) 4th (2.03) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 Marin FC 2.09 (+1.09) 3rd (2.14) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Placer United 1.83 (+0.83) 5th (1.91) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6 Mustang SC 1.70 (+0.70) 6th (1.76) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 Davis Legacy 1.20 (+0.20) 7th (1.29) 17 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection

How the results connect

92 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Stanislaus Surf to Santa Rosa United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

58 favour us
4 even
30 favour them
+1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 2–2 0–2 3–0 0–9 8–0 2–3 4–1 1–6 2–1 1–4 0–10 12–0 0–6 10–1 4–1 9–1 0–7 0–4 Stanislaus Surf 8th Force 9th Bay Area Surf 3rd San Juan SC 1st Davis Legacy 7th Pleasanton RAGE 11th MVLA 2nd Placer United 5th Santa Rosa United 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 15 Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 3rd hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
TBD
no score posted		 Mustang SC
6th · 5-2-3 · GD +7		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.33 0.94 Upside
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
10th · 1-1-8 · GD -51		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–2 1.78 1.01 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
02:30 PM		 Pleasanton RAGE
11th · 0-0-11 · GD -46		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–1 2.19 1.10 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 Placer United
5th · 7-1-4 · GD +33		 Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.09 1.03 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 Marin FC
4th · 7-2-2 · GD +23		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–3 0.22 0.97 Upside
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM		 San Juan SC
1st · 10-0-0 · GD +57		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.02 0.91 Upside
Sun Apr 4
04:20 PM		 Santa Rosa United
10th · 1-1-8 · GD -51		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.09 0.98 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
11:00 AM		 Bay Area Surf
3rd · 7-3-1 · GD +30		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–4 0.18 0.94 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Marin FC
4th · 7-2-2 · GD +23		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.14 0.90 Upside
Sun Apr 25
02:30 PM		 Force
9th · 2-1-8 · GD -31		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–2 1.48 0.93 Swing game
Sun May 2
11:00 AM		 COSC
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -58		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 4–1 2.58 1.00 Bank it
Sun May 9
11:00 AM		 MVLA
2nd · 10-1-0 · GD +72		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.02 0.96 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Juan SC 101000 570+57 303.00 WWWWW -0.64 -0.22 100% 1.2
2 MVLA 111010 786+72 312.82 WWWWW -1.09 +0.16 100% 1.8
3 Bay Area Surf 11731 4111+30 242.18 LWWWW -0.91 +0.33 69% 4.1
4 Marin FC 11722 307+23 232.09 WWWLL +0.29 -0.55 87% 3.6
5 Placer United 12714 5421+33 221.83 WWWLL -0.24 -0.30 38% 4.7
6 Mustang SC 10523 2114+7 171.70 LLDWW +0.21 -0.59 6% 5.7
7 Davis Legacy 10406 2028-8 121.20 LLLWW +0.25 -0.26 0% 7.0
8 Stanislaus Surf 10316 1341-28 101.00 LWDLL +0.09 -0.02 0% 8.3
9 Force 11218 1950-31 70.64 LLLDW +0.08 -0.09 0% 8.8
10 Santa Rosa United 10118 1061-51 40.40 LLLDL +1.08 -0.54 0% 10.1
11 Pleasanton RAGE 110011 450-46 00.00 LLLLL +1.08 -0.71 0% 11.1
12 COSC 7007 260-58 00.00 LLLLL +1.49 -0.14 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.68 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.