COSC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU15 · 12 teams · California Odyssey Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM
Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf, field 1 ↗ · turf far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.7 for, 5.8 against · 0.04 expected points)
| Season so far | COSC | Mustang SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-7 | 5-2-3 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.70 |
| Goals for / game | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals against / game | 8.6 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 6 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | W W D L L |
| Biggest win | — | 4–0 at Pleasanton RAGE |
| Worst loss | 0–13 vs San Juan SC | 0–3 at San Juan SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -5.05 | +0.63 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.49 | +0.21 |
Common opponents: Marin FC — we 0–10; they 0–2. MVLA — we 0–11; they 2–3. Stanislaus Surf — we 0–3; they 2–2. Force — we 0–5; they 3–0. San Juan SC — we 0–13; they 0–3. Placer United — we 2–6; they 2–1. Bay Area Surf — we 0–12; they 2–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–10 at Marin FC, 0–11 at MVLA, 0–3 vs Stanislaus Surf, 0–5 vs Force, 0–13 vs San Juan SC, 0–12 at Bay Area Surf.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Pleasanton RAGE sit 11th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Pleasanton RAGE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Mustang SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (COSC – Mustang SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
| Win 0.38 PPG |
11th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.13 PPG |
11th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th <1%
- 10th 4%
- 11th 25%
- 12th 71%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.05 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Juan SC | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.80) | 66 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 62 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | MVLA | 2.82 (+2.82) | 2nd (2.60) | 63 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Bay Area Surf | 2.18 (+2.18) | 4th (2.03) | 48 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection |
| 4 | Marin FC | 2.09 (+2.09) | 3rd (2.14) | 46 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Placer United | 1.83 (+1.83) | 5th (1.91) | 41 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection |
| 6 | Mustang SC | 1.70 (+1.70) | 6th (1.76) | 38 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 7 | Davis Legacy | 1.20 (+1.20) | 7th (1.29) | 27 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 8 | Stanislaus Surf | 1.00 (+1.00) | 8th (0.96) | 22 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 9 | Force | 0.64 (+0.64) | 9th (0.81) | 15 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 10 | Santa Rosa United | 0.40 (+0.40) | 10th (0.56) | 9 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 11 | Pleasanton RAGE | 0.00 (+0.00) | 11th (0.32) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
68 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link COSC to Mustang SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 5th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 20 12:00 PM no score posted |
Davis Legacy 7th · 4-0-6 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.09 | 0.01 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 3 02:00 PM no score posted |
Santa Rosa United 10th · 1-1-8 · GD -51 |
Away far trip
Trione Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.63 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 10 12:00 PM no score posted |
San Juan SC 1st · 10-0-0 · GD +57 |
Away far trip
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–9 | 0.00 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 11 12:00 PM no score posted |
Bay Area Surf 3rd · 7-3-1 · GD +30 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.01 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
Mustang SC 6th · 5-2-3 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.04 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
Force 9th · 2-1-8 · GD -31 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–5 | 0.25 | 0.08 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
Davis Legacy 7th · 4-0-6 · GD -8 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.17 | 0.09 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
Pleasanton RAGE 11th · 0-0-11 · GD -46 |
Away far trip
Stanford Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.93 | 0.14 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 02:00 PM |
Marin FC 4th · 7-2-2 · GD +23 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–5 | 0.02 | 0.13 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 02:00 PM |
Mustang SC 6th · 5-2-3 · GD +7 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.08 | 0.13 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
MVLA 2nd · 10-1-0 · GD +72 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–9 | 0.00 | 0.12 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 02:00 PM |
Pleasanton RAGE 11th · 0-0-11 · GD -46 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–2 | 1.21 | 0.18 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 10:00 AM |
Placer United 5th · 7-1-4 · GD +33 |
Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–9 | 0.00 | 0.17 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 11:00 AM |
Stanislaus Surf 8th · 3-1-6 · GD -28 |
Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–4 | 0.33 | 0.18 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 10:00 AM |
Santa Rosa United 10th · 1-1-8 · GD -51 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
2–3 | 0.92 | 0.21 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | San Juan SC | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | +57 | 30 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.64 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 10 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | MVLA | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 6 | +72 | 31 | 2.82 | WWWWW | -1.09 | +0.16 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Force See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Bay Area Surf | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 41 | 11 | +30 | 24 | 2.18 | LWWWW | -0.91 | +0.33 | 69% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Marin FC | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 7 | +23 | 23 | 2.09 | WWWLL | +0.29 | -0.55 | 87% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Placer United | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 54 | 21 | +33 | 22 | 1.83 | WWWLL | -0.24 | -0.30 | 38% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Mustang SC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 17 | 1.70 | LLDWW | +0.21 | -0.59 | 6% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 vs COSC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Davis Legacy | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 12 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +0.25 | -0.26 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Stanislaus Surf | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 41 | -28 | 10 | 1.00 | LWDLL | +0.09 | -0.02 | 0% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Force | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 50 | -31 | 7 | 0.64 | LLLDW | +0.08 | -0.09 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Sun Nov 8 at MVLA · Sun Nov 15 vs Davis Legacy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Santa Rosa United | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 61 | -51 | 4 | 0.40 | LLLDL | +1.08 | -0.54 | 0% | 10.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Juan SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Pleasanton RAGE | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 50 | -46 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.08 | -0.71 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 15 vs COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | COSC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 60 | -58 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.49 | -0.14 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 3 at Santa Rosa United · Sat Oct 10 at San Juan SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.68 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.