TableChase Clubs

Santa Rosa United

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU15 · 12 teams · Santa Rosa United Soccer (all teams)

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10th
1-1-8 record · 10 played
0.40 points per game
-51 goal diff · 10–61
LLLDLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.1
+1.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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Santa Rosa United
10th · 0.40 PPG
vs
Stanislaus Surf
8th · 1.00 PPG

Trione Fields, Trione West ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.9 against · 1.05 expected points)

Season so farSanta Rosa UnitedStanislaus Surf
Position10th8th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-83-1-6
Points per game0.401.00
Goals for / game1.01.3
Goals against / game6.14.1
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless44
Form (recent first)L D L L LL L D W L
Biggest win4–1 vs Pleasanton RAGE3–0 at COSC
Worst loss0–12 at MVLA0–10 at MVLA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.35-1.92
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.08+0.09

Common opponents: Bay Area Surf — we 0–3; they 0–2. Davis Legacy — we 1–4; they 1–6, 2–3. Placer United — we 1–10; they 0–6. San Juan SC — we 0–8; they 0–9. Pleasanton RAGE — we 4–1; they 2–1. MVLA — we 0–12, 1–4; they 0–10. Force — we 2–2, 1–9; they 3–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Stanislaus Surf average 1.3 goals/game (league avg 2.7); blanked in 4 of 10.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Stanislaus Surf concede 4.1/game; worst result 0–10 at MVLA.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 at Bay Area Surf, 0–8 at San Juan SC, 0–12 at MVLA, 0–8 at Marin FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Stanislaus Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Santa Rosa United – Stanislaus Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.45 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Win
0.64 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Draw
0.45 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Loss
0.36 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 71%
  11. 11th 17%
  12. 12th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 1.82 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Juan SC 3.00 (+2.60) 1st (2.80) 62 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 MVLA 2.82 (+2.42) 2nd (2.60) 59 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Bay Area Surf 2.18 (+1.78) 4th (2.03) 44 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Marin FC 2.09 (+1.69) 3rd (2.14) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Placer United 1.83 (+1.43) 5th (1.91) 37 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Mustang SC 1.70 (+1.30) 6th (1.76) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
7 Davis Legacy 1.20 (+0.80) 7th (1.29) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8 Stanislaus Surf 1.00 (+0.60) 8th (0.96) 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
9 Force 0.64 (+0.24) 9th (0.81) 11 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection

How the results connect

92 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Santa Rosa United to Stanislaus Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

30 favour us
4 even
58 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 2–3 0–8 9–0 0–3 2–0 0–12 10–0 4–1 1–2 1–4 6–1 3–2 1–10 6–0 1–4 1–9 7–0 0–5 Santa Rosa United 10th Force 9th San Juan SC 1st Bay Area Surf 3rd MVLA 2nd Pleasanton RAGE 11th Davis Legacy 7th Placer United 5th Stanislaus Surf 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 15 Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.54 · 9th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
02:00 PM
no score posted		 COSC
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -58		 Home
Trione Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.23 0.57 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Stanislaus Surf
8th · 3-1-6 · GD -28		 Home
Trione Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 2–2 1.05 0.61 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 San Juan SC
1st · 10-0-0 · GD +57		 Home
Trione Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–8 0.00 0.56 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 Pleasanton RAGE
11th · 0-0-11 · GD -46		 Away far trip
Stanford Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–1 1.50 0.63 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 Mustang SC
6th · 5-2-3 · GD +7		 Home
Trione Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–3 0.23 0.60 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Bay Area Surf
3rd · 7-3-1 · GD +30		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.06 0.57 Upside
Sun Apr 4
04:20 PM		 Stanislaus Surf
8th · 3-1-6 · GD -28		 Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–3 0.76 0.58 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 PM		 Davis Legacy
7th · 4-0-6 · GD -8		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–4 0.29 0.56 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Mustang SC
6th · 5-2-3 · GD +7		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.14 0.54 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Marin FC
4th · 7-2-2 · GD +23		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.08 0.52 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Placer United
5th · 7-1-4 · GD +33		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–6 0.05 0.49 Upside
Sun May 9
10:00 AM		 COSC
12th · 0-0-7 · GD -58		 Away far trip
Edison High School Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 3–2 1.92 0.56 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Juan SC 101000 570+57 303.00 WWWWW -0.64 -0.22 100% 1.2
2 MVLA 111010 786+72 312.82 WWWWW -1.09 +0.16 100% 1.8
3 Bay Area Surf 11731 4111+30 242.18 LWWWW -0.91 +0.33 70% 4.1
4 Marin FC 11722 307+23 232.09 WWWLL +0.29 -0.55 87% 3.5
5 Placer United 12714 5421+33 221.83 WWWLL -0.24 -0.30 37% 4.7
6 Mustang SC 10523 2114+7 171.70 LLDWW +0.21 -0.59 7% 5.7
7 Davis Legacy 10406 2028-8 121.20 LLLWW +0.25 -0.26 0% 7.0
8 Stanislaus Surf 10316 1341-28 101.00 LWDLL +0.09 -0.02 0% 8.3
9 Force 11218 1950-31 70.64 LLLDW +0.08 -0.09 0% 8.8
10 Santa Rosa United 10118 1061-51 40.40 LLLDL +1.08 -0.54 0% 10.1
11 Pleasanton RAGE 110011 450-46 00.00 LLLLL +1.08 -0.71 0% 11.1
12 COSC 7007 260-58 00.00 LLLLL +1.49 -0.14 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.68 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.