MVLA
ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU15 · 12 teams · MVLA (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:40 PM
Willow Glen High School, Football Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.5 against · 2.15 expected points)
| Season so far | MVLA | Bay Area Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 10-1-0 | 7-3-1 |
| Points per game | 2.82 | 2.18 |
| Goals for / game | 7.1 | 3.7 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 5 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W W W W L |
| Biggest win | 12–0 at Force | 12–0 vs COSC |
| Worst loss | — | 0–3 at San Juan SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +4.51 | +1.89 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.09 | -0.91 |
Common opponents: Mustang SC — we 3–2; they 2–2. COSC — we 11–0; they 12–0. Stanislaus Surf — we 10–0; they 2–0. Davis Legacy — we 7–0; they 3–2. Marin FC — we 1–1; they 1–1. Force — we 12–0; they 7–1, 4–0. Santa Rosa United — we 12–0, 4–1; they 3–0. Pleasanton RAGE — we 9–0; they 5–0. Placer United — we 6–1, 3–1; they 2–2.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Bay Area Surf concede only 1.0/game with 5 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 66% / draw 16% / loss 17%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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They arrive in form
Bay Area Surf have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:40 PM at Willow Glen High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Bay Area Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MVLA – Bay Area Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.83 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.83 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.58 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 19%
- 2nd 79%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.91 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Juan SC | 3.00 (+0.18) | 1st (2.80) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
How the results connect
109 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link MVLA to Bay Area Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.16 · 2nd hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:40 PM |
Bay Area Surf 3rd · 7-3-1 · GD +30 |
Away far trip
Willow Glen High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.15 | 2.76 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
Marin FC 4th · 7-2-2 · GD +23 |
Away far trip
San Rafael High School · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.70 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Force 9th · 2-1-8 · GD -31 |
Home Foothill College |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
9–0 | 2.99 | 2.72 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
San Juan SC 1st · 10-0-0 · GD +57 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.96 | 2.61 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Mustang SC 6th · 5-2-3 · GD +7 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–1 | 2.54 | 2.60 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Bay Area Surf 3rd · 7-3-1 · GD +30 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
3–1 | 2.40 | 2.59 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
COSC 12th · 0-0-7 · GD -58 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
9–0 | 3.00 | 2.61 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
San Juan SC 1st · 10-0-0 · GD +57 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.22 | 2.54 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Pleasanton RAGE 11th · 0-0-11 · GD -46 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
7–0 | 2.99 | 2.56 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Davis Legacy 7th · 4-0-6 · GD -8 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–0 | 2.94 | 2.58 | Bank it |
| Sun May 9 11:00 AM |
Stanislaus Surf 8th · 3-1-6 · GD -28 |
Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.97 | 2.60 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | San Juan SC | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | +57 | 30 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.64 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 10 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | MVLA | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 6 | +72 | 31 | 2.82 | WWWWW | -1.09 | +0.16 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Force See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Bay Area Surf | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 41 | 11 | +30 | 24 | 2.18 | LWWWW | -0.91 | +0.33 | 69% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Marin FC | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 7 | +23 | 23 | 2.09 | WWWLL | +0.29 | -0.55 | 86% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Placer United | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 54 | 21 | +33 | 22 | 1.83 | WWWLL | -0.24 | -0.30 | 38% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Mustang SC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 17 | 1.70 | LLDWW | +0.21 | -0.59 | 7% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 vs COSC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Davis Legacy | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 12 | 1.20 | LLLWW | +0.25 | -0.26 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Stanislaus Surf | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 41 | -28 | 10 | 1.00 | LWDLL | +0.09 | -0.02 | 0% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Force | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 50 | -31 | 7 | 0.64 | LLLDW | +0.08 | -0.09 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Sun Nov 8 at MVLA · Sun Nov 15 vs Davis Legacy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Santa Rosa United | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 61 | -51 | 4 | 0.40 | LLLDL | +1.08 | -0.54 | 0% | 10.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Juan SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Pleasanton RAGE | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 50 | -46 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.08 | -0.71 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 15 vs COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | COSC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 60 | -58 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.49 | -0.14 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 3 at Santa Rosa United · Sat Oct 10 at San Juan SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.68 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.