TableChase Clubs

Stanislaus Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU14 · 12 teams · Stanislaus Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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9th
3-1-6 record · 10 played
1.00 points per game
-16 goal diff · 11–27
DWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.1
+0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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Stanislaus Surf
9th · 1.00 PPG
at
Santa Rosa United
7th · 1.20 PPG

Trione Fields, Trione East ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.7 against · 0.91 expected points)

Season so farStanislaus SurfSanta Rosa United
Position9th7th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-63-3-4
Points per game1.001.20
Goals for / game1.12.3
Goals against / game2.73.4
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless54
Form (recent first)L L L W DL L W W L
Biggest win2–0 at COSC7–0 vs COSC
Worst loss0–10 at MVLA0–10 vs MVLA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.05-0.66
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.42+0.57

Common opponents: San Juan SC — we 2–5; they 0–4. Bay Area Surf — we 0–1; they 4–4. MVLA — we 0–10; they 0–6, 0–10. COSC — we 2–0; they 7–0. Pleasanton RAGE — we 3–1; they 5–1. Placer United — we 2–2; they 3–3. Force — we 2–1; they 0–3. Davis Legacy — we 0–2, 0–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Santa Rosa United concede 3.4/game; worst result 0–10 vs MVLA.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–1 at Bay Area Surf, 0–10 at MVLA, 0–4 vs Mustang SC, 0–2 vs Davis Legacy, 0–1 at Davis Legacy.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 25%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at Trione Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Placer United sit 8th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Placer United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Santa Rosa United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Stanislaus Surf – Santa Rosa United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.91 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Win
1.18 PPG		 7th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 2
Draw
1.00 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Loss
0.91 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 17%
  8. 8th 25%
  9. 9th 40%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.09 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 MVLA 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.85) 56 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 San Juan SC 3.00 (+2.00) 2nd (2.64) 56 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Mustang SC 2.13 (+1.13) 3rd (2.12) 37 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Davis Legacy 2.09 (+1.09) 4th (1.88) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 Bay Area Surf 1.80 (+0.80) 5th (1.55) 30 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 Force 1.43 (+0.43) 7th (1.22) 22 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
7 Santa Rosa United 1.20 (+0.20) 6th (1.29) 17 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 Placer United 1.00 (+0.00) 8th (1.13) A point next game

How the results connect

86 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Stanislaus Surf to Santa Rosa United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

30 favour us
11 even
45 favour them
-0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 3–3 0–10 10–0 0–1 1–1 0–1 4–4 2–5 4–0 0–2 3–1 1–5 2–1 3–0 6–0 2–0 0–7 0–4 8–0 1–1 Stanislaus Surf 9th Placer United 8th MVLA 1st Davis Legacy 4th Bay Area Surf 5th San Juan SC 2nd Pleasanton RAGE 11th Force 6th COSC 12th Mustang SC 3rd Santa Rosa United 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.16 · 9th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
TBD
no score posted		 Mustang SC
3rd · 5-2-1 · GD +19		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.23 0.93 Upside
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
7th · 3-3-4 · GD -11		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
25%		 1–2 0.91 0.93 Upside
Sun Nov 1
06:10 PM		 Pleasanton RAGE
11th · 1-0-10 · GD -51		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 3–1 2.41 1.04 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 Placer United
8th · 3-3-6 · GD -15		 Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–2 1.06 1.04 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Marin FC
10th · 1-2-8 · GD -30		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.80 1.09 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
01:00 PM		 San Juan SC
2nd · 9-0-0 · GD +56		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.06 1.03 Upside
Sun Apr 4
04:20 PM		 Santa Rosa United
7th · 3-3-4 · GD -11		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.21 1.04 Upside
Sun Apr 11
01:00 PM		 Bay Area Surf
5th · 5-3-2 · GD +2		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
25%		 1–1 0.98 1.04 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Marin FC
10th · 1-2-8 · GD -30		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 2–1 1.51 1.06 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
06:10 PM		 Force
6th · 3-1-3 · GD -6		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.30 1.07 Upside
Sun May 2
01:00 PM		 COSC
12th · 0-1-8 · GD -38		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 2–0 2.38 1.14 Bank it
Sun May 9
01:00 PM		 MVLA
1st · 10-0-0 · GD +75		 Home
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.02 1.08 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 MVLA 101000 761+75 303.00 WWWWW -0.99 -0.00 100% 1.1
2 San Juan SC 9900 593+56 273.00 WWWWW -1.48 +0.45 100% 1.9
3 Mustang SC 8521 245+19 172.13 DDWWW -0.81 +0.13 99% 3.1
4 Davis Legacy 11722 249+15 232.09 DWWWW -0.68 +0.51 93% 3.9
5 Bay Area Surf 10532 1715+2 181.80 DLLWW -0.44 +0.46 7% 5.2
6 Force 7313 1016-6 101.43 WDLLW -0.54 +0.35 0% 7.2
7 Santa Rosa United 10334 2334-11 121.20 LWWLL +0.57 -0.30 0% 6.7
8 Placer United 12336 2035-15 121.00 WWWLL +0.41 -0.24 0% 7.8
9 Stanislaus Surf 10316 1127-16 101.00 DWLLL +0.42 -0.16 0% 8.1
10 Marin FC 11128 1444-30 50.45 DLLLL +1.03 -0.41 0% 9.9
11 Pleasanton RAGE 111010 758-51 30.27 LLLLL +0.78 -0.06 0% 11.3
12 COSC 9018 240-38 10.11 LLLLL +0.51 +0.11 0% 11.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.