Davis Legacy

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Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 10 ↗

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.5 against · 0.54 expected points)

Common opponents: Pleasanton RAGE — we 4–0; they 7–0. Santa Rosa United — we 1–1; they 4–0. Placer United — we 3–0; they 8–0. COSC — we 5–0; they 7–1. Marin FC — we 2–2, 2–1; they 9–0, 6–0. Bay Area Surf — we 4–0; they 4–0. Stanislaus Surf — we 2–0, 1–0; they 5–2.

• Respect their attack
  San Juan SC score 6.6/game — well above the league's 2.2.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Hard to break down
  San Juan SC concede only 0.3/game with 7 clean sheet(s).

  Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Mustang SC, 0–3 vs MVLA.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 13%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• They arrive in form
  San Juan SC have won 9 straight.

  Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

• What a win does
  Mustang SC sit 3rd on 2.13 PPG; we are on 2.09.

  A point moves us above Mustang SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the San Juan SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Davis Legacy – San Juan SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–2 loss we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd 12%
4. 4th 80%
5. 5th 7%
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th <1%
9. 9th
10. 10th
11. 11th
12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.55 PPG if we win out).