TableChase Clubs

Force

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU14 · 12 teams · Force (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 18 hours ago.
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6th
3-1-3 record · 7 played
1.43 points per game
-6 goal diff · 10–16
WDLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.2
-0.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, TBD

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Force
6th · 1.43 PPG
vs
COSC
12th · 0.11 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.9 for, 0.8 against · 2.54 expected points)

Season so farForceCOSC
Position6th12th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-30-1-8
Points per game1.430.11
Goals for / game1.40.2
Goals against / game2.34.4
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless27
Form (recent first)W L L D WL L L L L
Biggest win4–1 vs Marin FC—
Worst loss0–9 at San Juan SC0–12 at MVLA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.66-2.86
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.54+0.51

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 0–0 at COSC (D)

Common opponents: Placer United — we 1–0; they 1–2. San Juan SC — we 0–9; they 1–7. Marin FC — we 4–1; they 0–4. Stanislaus Surf — we 1–2; they 0–2. Bay Area Surf — we 1–4; they 0–1. Santa Rosa United — we 3–0; they 0–7.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    COSC average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 7 of 9.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    COSC concede 4.4/game; worst result 0–12 at MVLA.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–9 at San Juan SC, 0–0 at COSC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    COSC have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the COSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Force – COSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.63 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
1.63 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
1.38 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
1.25 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
7.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 21%
  7. 7th 29%
  8. 8th 25%
  9. 9th 16%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 MVLA 3.00 (+1.57) 1st (2.85) 56 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 San Juan SC 3.00 (+1.57) 2nd (2.64) 56 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Mustang SC 2.13 (+0.70) 3rd (2.12) 37 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
4 Davis Legacy 2.09 (+0.66) 4th (1.88) 36 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 Bay Area Surf 1.80 (+0.37) 5th (1.55) 30 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection

How the results connect

46 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Force to COSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

32 favour us
5 even
9 favour them
+2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 1–2 2–0 1–4 1–0 1–0 2–1 0–9 7–1 4–1 4–0 3–0 7–0 1–0 2–2 0–9 8–0 0–4 Force 6th Stanislaus Surf 9th Bay Area Surf 5th Placer United 8th San Juan SC 2nd Marin FC 10th Santa Rosa United 7th COSC 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.35 · 4th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 20
TBD
no score posted		 MVLA
1st · 10-0-0 · GD +75		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–5 0.03 1.25 Upside
Sun Oct 11
TBD
no score posted		 Santa Rosa United
7th · 3-3-4 · GD -11		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 2–2 1.46 1.28 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 COSC
12th · 0-1-8 · GD -38		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 2–0 2.54 1.40 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 MVLA
1st · 10-0-0 · GD +75		 Away far trip
Graham Middle School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.01 1.28 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Davis Legacy
4th · 7-2-2 · GD +15		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 0–2 0.71 1.23 Upside
Sat Jan 23
11:00 AM		 Mustang SC
3rd · 5-2-1 · GD +19		 Away far trip
Provident Field @ MSC		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–3 0.32 1.16 Upside
Sat Jan 30
04:00 PM		 Bay Area Surf
5th · 5-3-2 · GD +2		 Home
De Anza College · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–1 1.18 1.16 Upside
Sat Apr 3
10:30 AM		 Placer United
8th · 3-3-6 · GD -15		 Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–2 1.28 1.17 Upside
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM		 Pleasanton RAGE
11th · 1-0-10 · GD -51		 Home
De Anza College		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 3–1 2.58 1.26 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Pleasanton RAGE
11th · 1-0-10 · GD -51		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 3–1 2.38 1.32 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 San Juan SC
2nd · 9-0-0 · GD +56		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.09 1.25 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 PM		 Davis Legacy
4th · 7-2-2 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 0–2 0.53 1.22 Upside
Sun Apr 25
06:10 PM		 Stanislaus Surf
9th · 3-1-6 · GD -16		 Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.47 1.23 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Mustang SC
3rd · 5-2-1 · GD +19		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.46 1.19 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 Marin FC
10th · 1-2-8 · GD -30		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.75 1.22 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 MVLA 101000 761+75 303.00 WWWWW -0.99 -0.00 100% 1.1
2 San Juan SC 9900 593+56 273.00 WWWWW -1.48 +0.45 100% 1.9
3 Mustang SC 8521 245+19 172.13 DDWWW -0.81 +0.13 99% 3.1
4 Davis Legacy 11722 249+15 232.09 DWWWW -0.68 +0.51 93% 3.9
5 Bay Area Surf 10532 1715+2 181.80 DLLWW -0.44 +0.46 7% 5.3
6 Force 7313 1016-6 101.43 WDLLW -0.54 +0.35 0% 7.2
7 Santa Rosa United 10334 2334-11 121.20 LWWLL +0.57 -0.30 1% 6.6
8 Placer United 12336 2035-15 121.00 WWWLL +0.41 -0.24 0% 7.8
9 Stanislaus Surf 10316 1127-16 101.00 DWLLL +0.42 -0.16 0% 8.1
10 Marin FC 11128 1444-30 50.45 DLLLL +1.03 -0.41 0% 9.9
11 Pleasanton RAGE 111010 758-51 30.27 LLLLL +0.78 -0.06 0% 11.3
12 COSC 9018 240-38 10.11 LLLLL +0.51 +0.11 0% 11.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.