Pleasanton RAGE

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU14 · 12 teams · Pleasanton Rage (all teams)

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11th

1-0-10 record · 11 played

0.27 points per game

-51 goal diff · 7–58

LLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.3

+0.78 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 06:10 PM

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Pleasanton RAGE
11th · 0.27 PPG

Stanislaus Surf
9th · 1.00 PPG

River Islands Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

11% 13% 76%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 3.0 against · 0.45 expected points)

Season so far	Pleasanton RAGE	Stanislaus Surf
Position	11th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-10	3-1-6
Points per game	0.27	1.00
Goals for / game	0.6	1.1
Goals against / game	5.3	2.7
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	6	5
Form (recent first)	L L L L L	L L L W D
Biggest win	3–2 vs Marin FC	2–0 at COSC
Worst loss	0–10 at MVLA	0–10 at MVLA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-3.33	-1.05
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.78	+0.42

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 1–3 vs Stanislaus Surf (L)

Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 0–4; they 0–2, 0–1. Bay Area Surf — we 0–2; they 0–1. San Juan SC — we 0–7; they 2–5. Placer United — we 1–7, 1–5; they 2–2. MVLA — we 0–10; they 0–10. Mustang SC — we 0–8, 0–5; they 0–4.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Stanislaus Surf average 1.1 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 5 of 10.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–4 vs Davis Legacy, 0–2 at Bay Area Surf, 0–7 vs San Juan SC, 0–10 at MVLA, 0–8 at Mustang SC, 0–5 vs Mustang SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 11%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Confidence is low on their side
Stanislaus Surf have lost 3 straight (form: DWLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 06:10 PM at River Islands Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Marin FC sit 10th on 0.45 PPG; we are on 0.27.
A point moves us above Marin FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Stanislaus Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pleasanton RAGE – Stanislaus Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.25 PPG	11th— holds	11th— holds	12th▼ down 1
Win 0.50 PPG	10th▲ up 1	10th▲ up 1	11th— holds
Draw 0.33 PPG	11th— holds	11th— holds	12th▼ down 1
Loss 0.25 PPG	11th— holds	11th— holds	12th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

11.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th <1%
9th <1%
10th 5%
11th 59%
12th 36%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 1.64 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	MVLA	3.00 (+2.73)	1st (2.85)	63 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 60 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	San Juan SC	3.00 (+2.73)	2nd (2.64)	63 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Mustang SC	2.13 (+1.86)	3rd (2.12)	44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Davis Legacy	2.09 (+1.82)	4th (1.88)	43 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Bay Area Surf	1.80 (+1.53)	5th (1.55)	37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6	Force	1.43 (+1.16)	7th (1.22)	29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7	Santa Rosa United	1.20 (+0.93)	6th (1.29)	24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8	Placer United	1.00 (+0.73)	8th (1.13)	19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9	Stanislaus Surf	1.00 (+0.73)	9th (1.08)	19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10	Marin FC	0.45 (+0.18)	10th (0.72)	A point next game

How the results connect

80 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Pleasanton RAGE to Stanislaus Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us

5 even

58 favour them

-2.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.06 · 8th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 06:10 PM	Stanislaus Surf 9th · 3-1-6 · GD -16	Away far trip River Islands Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–3	0.45	0.29	Upside
Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM	Santa Rosa United 7th · 3-3-4 · GD -11	Home Stanford Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	8%	1–4	0.33	0.29	Upside
Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM	COSC 12th · 0-1-8 · GD -38	Home Stanford Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–1	1.63	0.39	Swing game
Sun Nov 22 12:00 PM	Davis Legacy 4th · 7-2-2 · GD +15	Away far trip Playfields Park	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–4	0.08	0.37	Upside
Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM	Force 6th · 3-1-3 · GD -6	Away far trip De Anza College	●●●●● Very tough	7%	1–3	0.32	0.36	Upside
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Force 6th · 3-1-3 · GD -6	Home	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–3	0.48	0.37	Upside
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Marin FC 10th · 1-2-8 · GD -30	Away	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–3	0.56	0.38	Upside
Sun Apr 18 12:00 PM	COSC 12th · 0-1-8 · GD -38	Away far trip Edison High School Fields	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.36	0.43	Upside
Sun Apr 25 TBD	MVLA 1st · 10-0-0 · GD +75	Home	●●●●● Very tough	0%	0–9	0.00	0.41	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	San Juan SC 2nd · 9-0-0 · GD +56	Away	●●●●● Very tough	0%	0–9	0.00	0.39	Upside
Sun May 9 TBD	Bay Area Surf 5th · 5-3-2 · GD +2	Home	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–3	0.31	0.39	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

MVLA

+75

3.00

WWWWW

-0.99

-0.00

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Placer United (8th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Placer United (8th)	10–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Santa Rosa United (7th)	10–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	10–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Santa Rosa United (7th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Marin FC (10th)	10–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	10–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	COSC (12th)	12–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Mustang SC (3rd)	2–1

Next: Sun Sep 20 at Force · Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 20 (no score yet)	at	Force (6th)	5–0	98%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Marin FC (10th)	8–0	100%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Force (6th)	6–0	99%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Mustang SC (3rd)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	4–0	97%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	COSC (12th)	8–0	100%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	9–0	100%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun May 9	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	6–0	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Juan SC

+56

3.00

WWWWW

-1.48

+0.45

100%

1.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Marin FC (10th)	6–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Marin FC (10th)	9–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	COSC (12th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Santa Rosa United (7th)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	7–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Placer United (8th)	8–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Force (6th)	9–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	5–2

Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 10 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Mustang SC (3rd)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	COSC (12th)	8–0	100%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Santa Rosa United (7th)	6–1	96%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	MVLA (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	5–0	96%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Force (6th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	MVLA (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Mustang SC (3rd)	2–1	70%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	9–0	100%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Placer United (8th)	6–0	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mustang SC

+19

2.13

DDWWW

-0.81

+0.13

99%

3.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	8–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Marin FC (10th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Placer United (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 15	at	MVLA (1st)	1–2

Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 vs COSC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	COSC (12th)	4–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	2–0	62%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Marin FC (10th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Santa Rosa United (7th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Force (6th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	COSC (12th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Placer United (8th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Santa Rosa United (7th)	3–1	85%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun May 2	at	Force (6th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–0	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Davis Legacy

+15

2.09

DWWWW

-0.68

+0.51

93%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Marin FC (10th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Marin FC (10th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	COSC (12th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Placer United (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–2
D	Sun Aug 16	at	Santa Rosa United (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Placer United (8th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	COSC (12th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Force (6th)	2–0	63%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Santa Rosa United (7th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force (6th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun May 2	at	MVLA (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sun May 9	at	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–1	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bay Area Surf

1.80

DLLWW

-0.44

+0.46

5.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	COSC (12th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Force (6th)	4–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Mustang SC (3rd)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Marin FC (10th)	3–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Placer United (8th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Santa Rosa United (7th)	4–4

Next: Sun Oct 11 at COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	COSC (12th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Force (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Santa Rosa United (7th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	MVLA (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Placer United (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Marin FC (10th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun May 9	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force

-6

1.43

WDLLW

-0.54

+0.35

7.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Santa Rosa United (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	COSC (12th)	0–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Marin FC (10th)	4–1
L	Sun Aug 16	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–9
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Placer United (8th)	1–0

Next: Sun Sep 20 vs MVLA · Sun Oct 11 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 20 (no score yet)	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–5	0%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	Santa Rosa United (7th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	COSC (12th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	MVLA (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–2	17%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Placer United (8th)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun May 9	at	Marin FC (10th)	2–1	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Santa Rosa United

-11

1.20

LWWLL

+0.57

-0.30

6.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Force (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–10
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Marin FC (10th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	COSC (12th)	7–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	MVLA (1st)	0–6
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–4
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Placer United (8th)	3–3
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–1
D	Sat Aug 15	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	4–4

Next: Sun Oct 11 at Force · Sun Oct 25 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Juan SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	at	Force (6th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	1–6	1%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	4–1	83%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Mustang SC (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Mustang SC (3rd)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Marin FC (10th)	3–1	70%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Placer United (8th)	2–2	52%
·	Sun May 9	at	COSC (12th)	3–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Placer United

-15

1.00

WWWLL

+0.41

-0.24

7.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	at	MVLA (1st)	0–10
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	5–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	COSC (12th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	7–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–3
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Santa Rosa United (7th)	3–3
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–8
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Force (6th)	0–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Force (6th)	2–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Marin FC (10th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Marin FC (10th)	2–2	52%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	COSC (12th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun May 2	at	Santa Rosa United (7th)	2–2	31%
·	Sun May 9	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanislaus Surf

-16

1.00

DWLLL

+0.42

-0.16

8.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Force (6th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Placer United (8th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	COSC (12th)	2–0
L	Sun Aug 23	at	MVLA (1st)	0–10
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 15	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	2–5

Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	at	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Santa Rosa United (7th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Placer United (8th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Marin FC (10th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Santa Rosa United (7th)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Marin FC (10th)	2–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Force (6th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun May 2	vs	COSC (12th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun May 9	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–6	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Marin FC

-30

0.45

DLLLL

+1.03

-0.41

9.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–9
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Santa Rosa United (7th)	2–3
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Mustang SC (3rd)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	MVLA (1st)	0–10
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Force (6th)	1–4
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	COSC (12th)	4–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–8	0%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	COSC (12th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Placer United (8th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Placer United (8th)	2–2	30%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Santa Rosa United (7th)	1–3	17%
·	Sun May 2	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Force (6th)	1–2	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pleasanton RAGE

-51

0.27

LLLLL

+0.78

-0.06

11.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Placer United (8th)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	MVLA (1st)	0–10
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Placer United (8th)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Santa Rosa United (7th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Marin FC (10th)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–4

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 15 vs COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Santa Rosa United (7th)	1–4	8%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	COSC (12th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Force (6th)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Force (6th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Marin FC (10th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	COSC (12th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–9	0%
·	Sun May 2	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–9	0%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

COSC

-38

0.11

LLLLL

+0.51

+0.11

11.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Placer United (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Santa Rosa United (7th)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	San Juan SC (2nd)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Force (6th)	0–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 16	at	MVLA (1st)	0–12
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Marin FC (10th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 10 at San Juan SC · Sun Oct 11 vs Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Mustang SC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	San Juan SC (2nd)	0–8	0%
·	Sun Oct 11 (no score yet)	vs	Bay Area Surf (5th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Force (6th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Davis Legacy (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Marin FC (10th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Mustang SC (3rd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	MVLA (1st)	0–8	0%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pleasanton RAGE (11th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Placer United (8th)	0–3	7%
·	Sun May 2	at	Stanislaus Surf (9th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Santa Rosa United (7th)	1–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.