TableChase Clubs

MVLA

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU14 · 12 teams · MVLA (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
Add schedule to calendar
1st
10-0-0 record · 10 played
3.00 points per game
+75 goal diff · 76–1
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1
-0.99 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:55 AM

Open the match preview →

MVLA
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Bay Area Surf
5th · 1.80 PPG

Willow Glen High School, Football Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.3 for, 0.6 against · 2.87 expected points)

Season so farMVLABay Area Surf
Position1st5th
Record (W-D-L)10-0-05-3-2
Points per game3.001.80
Goals for / game7.61.7
Goals against / game0.11.5
Clean sheets94
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W W WW W L L D
Biggest win12–0 vs COSC3–0 at Marin FC
Worst loss—0–4 at San Juan SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+5.12-0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.99-0.44

Common opponents: Mustang SC — we 2–1; they 1–1. COSC — we 12–0; they 1–0. Stanislaus Surf — we 10–0; they 1–0. Davis Legacy — we 3–0; they 0–4. Marin FC — we 10–0; they 3–0. Santa Rosa United — we 6–0, 10–0; they 4–4. Pleasanton RAGE — we 10–0; they 2–0. Placer United — we 10–0, 3–0; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 4–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:55 AM at Willow Glen High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Bay Area Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MVLA – Bay Area Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.82 PPG		 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.73 PPG		 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

88% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.1 average finish
  1. 1st 88%
  2. 2nd 12%
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

90 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link MVLA to Bay Area Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

85 favour us
2 even
3 favour them
+7.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–1 3–0 1–1 6–0 4–4 10–0 0–3 3–0 4–0 10–0 0–2 10–0 0–1 10–0 10–0 12–0 0–1 0–3 1–4 2–2 MVLA 1st Mustang SC 3rd Placer United 8th Santa Rosa United 7th Marin FC 10th Davis Legacy 4th Pleasanton RAGE 11th Stanislaus Surf 9th COSC 12th Force 6th Bay Area Surf 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.00 · 7th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 20
TBD
no score posted		 Force
6th · 3-1-3 · GD -6		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 5–0 2.95 3.00 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
10:55 AM		 Bay Area Surf
5th · 5-3-2 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Willow Glen High School · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 4–0 2.87 2.99 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Marin FC
10th · 1-2-8 · GD -30		 Away far trip
Dominican University		 ●○○○○ Favorable
100%		 8–0 2.99 2.99 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Force
6th · 3-1-3 · GD -6		 Home
Graham Middle School · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 6–0 2.98 2.99 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 San Juan SC
2nd · 9-0-0 · GD +56		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–1 1.82 2.91 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Mustang SC
3rd · 5-2-1 · GD +19		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 2–0 2.44 2.88 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Bay Area Surf
5th · 5-3-2 · GD +2		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 4–0 2.93 2.88 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 COSC
12th · 0-1-8 · GD -38		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
100%		 8–0 3.00 2.89 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 San Juan SC
2nd · 9-0-0 · GD +56		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.09 2.85 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Pleasanton RAGE
11th · 1-0-10 · GD -51		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
100%		 9–0 3.00 2.85 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 Davis Legacy
4th · 7-2-2 · GD +15		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 3–0 2.73 2.85 Bank it
Sun May 9
01:00 PM		 Stanislaus Surf
9th · 3-1-6 · GD -16		 Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 6–0 2.97 2.85 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 MVLA 101000 761+75 303.00 WWWWW -0.99 -0.00 100% 1.1
2 San Juan SC 9900 593+56 273.00 WWWWW -1.48 +0.45 100% 1.9
3 Mustang SC 8521 245+19 172.13 DDWWW -0.81 +0.13 99% 3.1
4 Davis Legacy 11722 249+15 232.09 DWWWW -0.68 +0.51 93% 3.9
5 Bay Area Surf 10532 1715+2 181.80 DLLWW -0.44 +0.46 7% 5.2
6 Force 7313 1016-6 101.43 WDLLW -0.54 +0.35 0% 7.2
7 Santa Rosa United 10334 2334-11 121.20 LWWLL +0.57 -0.30 0% 6.7
8 Placer United 12336 2035-15 121.00 WWWLL +0.41 -0.24 0% 7.8
9 Stanislaus Surf 10316 1127-16 101.00 DWLLL +0.42 -0.16 0% 8.1
10 Marin FC 11128 1444-30 50.45 DLLLL +1.03 -0.41 0% 9.9
11 Pleasanton RAGE 111010 758-51 30.27 LLLLL +0.78 -0.06 0% 11.3
12 COSC 9018 240-38 10.11 LLLLL +0.51 +0.11 0% 11.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.