Mustang SC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU14 · 12 teams · Mustang Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf, field 1 ↗ · turf
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.8 for, 0.4 against · 2.94 expected points)
| Season so far | Mustang SC | COSC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-2-1 | 0-1-8 |
| Points per game | 2.13 | 0.11 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 4.4 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 7 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W D D | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs Pleasanton RAGE | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at MVLA | 0–12 at MVLA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.59 | -2.86 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.81 | +0.51 |
Common opponents: MVLA — we 1–2; they 0–12. Placer United — we 1–0; they 1–2. Davis Legacy — we 2–0; they 0–5. Bay Area Surf — we 1–1; they 0–1. Marin FC — we 2–2; they 0–4. Stanislaus Surf — we 4–0; they 0–2.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
COSC average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 7 of 9.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
COSC concede 4.4/game; worst result 0–12 at MVLA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
COSC have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the COSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mustang SC – COSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.22 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.22 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.89 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 86%
- 4th 13%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.68 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MVLA | 3.00 (+0.87) | 1st (2.85) | 49 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | San Juan SC | 3.00 (+0.87) | 2nd (2.64) | 49 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection |
How the results connect
69 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link Mustang SC to COSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.13 · 5th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 27 TBD no score posted |
Stanislaus Surf 9th · 3-1-6 · GD -16 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.67 | 2.19 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 4 TBD no score posted |
San Juan SC 2nd · 9-0-0 · GD +56 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.77 | 2.04 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
COSC 12th · 0-1-8 · GD -38 |
Home Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
4–0 | 2.94 | 2.13 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
Bay Area Surf 5th · 5-3-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–0 | 2.08 | 2.12 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Marin FC 10th · 1-2-8 · GD -30 |
Home Provident Field @ MSC |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.84 | 2.18 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Santa Rosa United 7th · 3-3-4 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Trione Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.46 | 2.20 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 23 11:00 AM |
Force 6th · 3-1-3 · GD -6 |
Home Provident Field @ MSC |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–0 | 2.57 | 2.22 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
MVLA 1st · 10-0-0 · GD +75 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.42 | 2.11 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 PM |
COSC 12th · 0-1-8 · GD -38 |
Away far trip
Edison High School Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.89 | 2.16 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Placer United 8th · 3-3-6 · GD -15 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–0 | 2.64 | 2.18 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Santa Rosa United 7th · 3-3-4 · GD -11 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–1 | 2.64 | 2.21 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
San Juan SC 2nd · 9-0-0 · GD +56 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.56 | 2.12 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Force 6th · 3-1-3 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
2–0 | 2.39 | 2.14 | Bank it |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Davis Legacy 4th · 7-2-2 · GD +15 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–0 | 1.77 | 2.12 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MVLA | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 1 | +75 | 30 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.99 | -0.00 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Force · Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | San Juan SC | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 3 | +56 | 27 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.48 | +0.45 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 10 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Mustang SC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 17 | 2.13 | DDWWW | -0.81 | +0.13 | 100% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 vs COSC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Davis Legacy | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 23 | 2.09 | DWWWW | -0.68 | +0.51 | 92% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Bay Area Surf | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 18 | 1.80 | DLLWW | -0.44 | +0.46 | 7% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Force | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 | 1.43 | WDLLW | -0.54 | +0.35 | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs MVLA · Sun Oct 11 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Santa Rosa United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 12 | 1.20 | LWWLL | +0.57 | -0.30 | 0% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Force · Sun Oct 25 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Juan SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Placer United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 12 | 1.00 | WWWLL | +0.41 | -0.24 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Stanislaus Surf | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 10 | 1.00 | DWLLL | +0.42 | -0.16 | 0% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Marin FC | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 44 | -30 | 5 | 0.45 | DLLLL | +1.03 | -0.41 | 0% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Pleasanton RAGE | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 58 | -51 | 3 | 0.27 | LLLLL | +0.78 | -0.06 | 0% | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 15 vs COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | COSC | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 40 | -38 | 1 | 0.11 | LLLLL | +0.51 | +0.11 | 0% | 11.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at San Juan SC · Sun Oct 11 vs Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Mustang SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.