COSC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU14 · 12 teams · California Odyssey Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf, field 1 ↗ · turf far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 0.4 for, 4.8 against · 0.04 expected points)
| Season so far | COSC | Mustang SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-8 | 5-2-1 |
| Points per game | 0.11 | 2.13 |
| Goals for / game | 0.2 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 4.4 | 0.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 5 |
| Held scoreless | 7 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | W W W D D |
| Biggest win | — | 8–0 vs Pleasanton RAGE |
| Worst loss | 0–12 at MVLA | 1–2 at MVLA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.86 | +1.59 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.51 | -0.81 |
Common opponents: Marin FC — we 0–4; they 2–2. MVLA — we 0–12; they 1–2. Stanislaus Surf — we 0–2; they 4–0. Davis Legacy — we 0–5; they 2–0. Placer United — we 1–2; they 1–0. Bay Area Surf — we 0–1; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
Mustang SC concede only 0.6/game with 5 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 7 time(s): 0–4 at Marin FC, 0–12 at MVLA, 0–2 vs Stanislaus Surf, 0–0 vs Force, 0–5 at Davis Legacy, 0–7 at Santa Rosa United, 0–1 at Bay Area Surf.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Mustang SC have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Pleasanton RAGE sit 11th on 0.27 PPG; we are on 0.11.A point moves us above Pleasanton RAGE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Mustang SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (COSC – Mustang SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.10 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
| Win 0.40 PPG |
11th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.20 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
| Loss 0.10 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th <1%
- 10th 2%
- 11th 36%
- 12th 62%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 1.82 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MVLA | 3.00 (+2.89) | 1st (2.85) | 65 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 62 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | San Juan SC | 3.00 (+2.89) | 2nd (2.64) | 65 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Mustang SC | 2.13 (+2.02) | 3rd (2.12) | 46 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Davis Legacy | 2.09 (+1.98) | 4th (1.88) | 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Bay Area Surf | 1.80 (+1.69) | 5th (1.55) | 39 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 6 | Force | 1.43 (+1.32) | 7th (1.22) | 31 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 7 | Santa Rosa United | 1.20 (+1.09) | 6th (1.29) | 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 8 | Placer United | 1.00 (+0.89) | 8th (1.13) | 21 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 9 | Stanislaus Surf | 1.00 (+0.89) | 9th (1.08) | 21 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 10 | Marin FC | 0.45 (+0.34) | 10th (0.72) | 9 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 11 | Pleasanton RAGE | 0.27 (+0.16) | 11th (0.39) | A point next game |
How the results connect
69 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link COSC to Mustang SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.11 · 6th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 10:00 AM no score posted |
San Juan SC 2nd · 9-0-0 · GD +56 |
Away far trip
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–8 | 0.00 | 0.10 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 11 10:00 AM no score posted |
Bay Area Surf 5th · 5-3-2 · GD +2 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.33 | 0.12 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Mustang SC 3rd · 5-2-1 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.04 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
Force 6th · 3-1-3 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.34 | 0.13 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
Davis Legacy 4th · 7-2-2 · GD +15 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.16 | 0.13 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM |
Pleasanton RAGE 11th · 1-0-10 · GD -51 |
Away far trip
Stanford Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 0.20 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 PM |
Marin FC 10th · 1-2-8 · GD -30 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.76 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 PM |
Mustang SC 3rd · 5-2-1 · GD +19 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.07 | 0.23 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
MVLA 1st · 10-0-0 · GD +75 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–8 | 0.00 | 0.21 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 PM |
Pleasanton RAGE 11th · 1-0-10 · GD -51 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 0.28 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 08:00 AM |
Placer United 8th · 3-3-6 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–3 | 0.31 | 0.28 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 01:00 PM |
Stanislaus Surf 9th · 3-1-6 · GD -16 |
Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.46 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 12:00 PM |
Santa Rosa United 7th · 3-3-4 · GD -11 |
Home Edison High School Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.34 | 0.29 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | MVLA | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 1 | +75 | 30 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.99 | -0.00 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Force · Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | San Juan SC | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 3 | +56 | 27 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.48 | +0.45 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 10 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mustang SC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 17 | 2.13 | DDWWW | -0.81 | +0.13 | 100% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 vs COSC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Davis Legacy | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 23 | 2.09 | DWWWW | -0.68 | +0.51 | 93% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Bay Area Surf | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 18 | 1.80 | DLLWW | -0.44 | +0.46 | 6% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Force | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 | 1.43 | WDLLW | -0.54 | +0.35 | 1% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs MVLA · Sun Oct 11 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Santa Rosa United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 12 | 1.20 | LWWLL | +0.57 | -0.30 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Force · Sun Oct 25 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Juan SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Placer United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 12 | 1.00 | WWWLL | +0.41 | -0.24 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Stanislaus Surf | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 10 | 1.00 | DWLLL | +0.42 | -0.16 | 0% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Marin FC | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 44 | -30 | 5 | 0.45 | DLLLL | +1.03 | -0.41 | 0% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Pleasanton RAGE | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 58 | -51 | 3 | 0.27 | LLLLL | +0.78 | -0.06 | 0% | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 15 vs COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | COSC | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 40 | -38 | 1 | 0.11 | LLLLL | +0.51 | +0.11 | 0% | 11.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at San Juan SC · Sun Oct 11 vs Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Mustang SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.