Marin FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU13 · 12 teams · Marin FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:00 PM
San Rafael High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.8 against · 0.56 expected points)
| Season so far | Marin FC | MVLA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-6 | 8-2-0 |
| Points per game | 1.18 | 2.60 |
| Goals for / game | 2.2 | 5.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 6 |
| Held scoreless | 5 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W D | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs Santa Rosa United | 14–1 vs Santa Rosa United |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at San Juan SC | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.57 | +3.23 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.57 | -1.24 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 0–2 at MVLA (L)
Common opponents: COSC — we 5–0; they 6–0. Pleasanton RAGE — we 3–0; they 11–0. Mustang SC — we 0–2; they 2–2. Davis Legacy — we 2–2, 1–3; they 3–3. Santa Rosa United — we 8–0; they 14–1, 12–0.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
MVLA score 5.6/game — well above the league's 2.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Hard to break down
MVLA concede only 0.7/game with 6 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–2 vs Bay Area Surf, 0–2 at MVLA, 0–2 vs Mustang SC, 0–2 vs San Juan SC, 0–3 at San Juan SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 13%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
They arrive in form
MVLA have won 6 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
-
What a win does
Davis Legacy sit 7th on 1.27 PPG; we are on 1.18.A point moves us above Davis Legacy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the MVLA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Marin FC – MVLA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.08 PPG |
8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.33 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 1.08 PPG |
8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 72%
- 7th 20%
- 8th 3%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.09 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Juan SC | 2.78 (+1.60) | 1st (2.60) | 49 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Mustang SC | 2.75 (+1.57) | 2nd (2.40) | 48 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | MVLA | 2.60 (+1.42) | 3rd (2.38) | 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Bay Area Surf | 2.44 (+1.26) | 4th (2.26) | 41 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Placer United | 1.75 (+0.57) | 5th (1.86) | 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 6 | Force | 1.50 (+0.32) | 8th (1.11) | 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 7 | Davis Legacy | 1.27 (+0.09) | 7th (1.30) | A point next game |
How the results connect
83 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Marin FC to MVLA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.45 · 12th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
MVLA 3rd · 8-2-0 · GD +49 |
Home San Rafael High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.56 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Mustang SC 2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Provident Field @ MSC |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
0–1 | 0.60 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
Stanislaus Surf 9th · 3-0-7 · GD -26 |
Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.29 | 1.17 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 10:00 AM |
COSC 10th · 1-0-7 · GD -36 |
Away far trip
Edison High School Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
3–0 | 2.69 | 1.28 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 10:00 AM |
Placer United 5th · 7-0-5 · GD +24 |
Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–1 | 0.81 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Pleasanton RAGE 11th · 1-0-10 · GD -49 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.82 | 1.34 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Stanislaus Surf 9th · 3-0-7 · GD -26 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.49 | 1.40 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Placer United 5th · 7-0-5 · GD +24 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.03 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Santa Rosa United 12th · 1-0-10 · GD -76 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–0 | 2.89 | 1.46 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Bay Area Surf 4th · 7-1-1 · GD +28 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.62 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Force 6th · 4-0-4 · GD -8 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.20 | 1.45 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Juan SC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 3 | +56 | 25 | 2.78 | WDWWW | -0.93 | +0.09 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 10 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Mustang SC | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 2 | +21 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWWW | -0.28 | -0.24 | 99% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 vs COSC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | MVLA | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 7 | +49 | 26 | 2.60 | WWWWW | -1.24 | +0.50 | 100% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Force · Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Bay Area Surf | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 7 | +28 | 22 | 2.44 | WLDWW | -0.09 | -0.14 | 97% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at COSC · Sun Oct 18 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Placer United | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 11 | +24 | 21 | 1.75 | WWWLL | -0.17 | -0.07 | 5% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Force | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 12 | 1.50 | WWLWW | -1.10 | +0.61 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Sun Nov 8 at MVLA See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Davis Legacy | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 14 | 1.27 | DLWLL | -0.36 | +0.38 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Marin FC | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 13 | 1.18 | DWLLL | +0.57 | -0.45 | 0% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Stanislaus Surf | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 9 | 0.90 | LLLWW | +0.60 | -0.25 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | COSC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 42 | -36 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLLL | +0.24 | +0.31 | 0% | 10.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at San Juan SC · Sun Oct 11 vs Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 18 at Bay Area Surf See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Pleasanton RAGE | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 54 | -49 | 3 | 0.27 | LLLLL | +1.01 | -0.36 | 0% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 15 vs COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Santa Rosa United | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 84 | -76 | 3 | 0.27 | WLLLL | +0.60 | +0.29 | 0% | 11.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 8 at Pleasanton RAGE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.