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Pleasanton RAGE

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU13 · 12 teams · Pleasanton Rage (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 19 hours ago.
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11th
1-0-10 record · 11 played
0.27 points per game
-49 goal diff · 5–54
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.7
+1.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 04:20 PM

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Pleasanton RAGE
11th · 0.27 PPG
at
Stanislaus Surf
9th · 0.90 PPG

River Islands Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.7 against · 0.60 expected points)

Season so farPleasanton RAGEStanislaus Surf
Position11th9th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-103-0-7
Points per game0.270.90
Goals for / game0.51.0
Goals against / game4.93.6
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless87
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W L L L
Biggest win2–0 at Santa Rosa United3–1 at Davis Legacy
Worst loss0–11 at MVLA0–12 at San Juan SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.15-1.60
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.01+0.60

Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 2–3 vs Stanislaus Surf (L)

Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 0–3; they 4–3, 3–1. Bay Area Surf — we 0–5; they 0–8. San Juan SC — we 0–5; they 0–12. Placer United — we 1–7, 0–7; they 0–2. MVLA — we 0–11; they 0–2. Mustang SC — we 0–4, 0–6; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Stanislaus Surf average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 7 of 10.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 8 time(s): 0–3 vs Davis Legacy, 0–3 vs Marin FC, 0–5 at Bay Area Surf, 0–5 vs San Juan SC, 0–11 at MVLA, 0–7 vs Placer United, 0–4 at Mustang SC, 0–6 vs Mustang SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 15%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:20 PM at River Islands Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    COSC sit 10th on 0.38 PPG; we are on 0.27.

    A point moves us above COSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Stanislaus Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pleasanton RAGE – Stanislaus Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.25 PPG		 12th▼ down 1 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1
Win
0.50 PPG		 10th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 1 11th— holds
Draw
0.33 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1
Loss
0.25 PPG		 12th▼ down 1 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 39%
  11. 11th 47%
  12. 12th 14%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 1.64 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Juan SC 2.78 (+2.51) 1st (2.60) 59 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Mustang SC 2.75 (+2.48) 2nd (2.40) 58 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 MVLA 2.60 (+2.33) 3rd (2.38) 55 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Bay Area Surf 2.44 (+2.17) 4th (2.26) 51 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Placer United 1.75 (+1.48) 5th (1.86) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Force 1.50 (+1.23) 8th (1.11) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 Davis Legacy 1.27 (+1.00) 7th (1.30) 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 Marin FC 1.18 (+0.91) 6th (1.45) 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
9 Stanislaus Surf 0.90 (+0.63) 9th (0.95) 17 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 COSC 0.38 (+0.11) 10th (0.46) A point next game

How the results connect

80 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Pleasanton RAGE to Stanislaus Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

23 favour us
2 even
55 favour them
-2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 0–4 2–0 0–5 8–0 0–6 1–7 2–0 0–3 3–4 0–7 1–3 0–5 12–0 0–11 2–0 1–2 4–0 3–0 Pleasanton RAGE 11th Mustang SC 2nd Bay Area Surf 4th Placer United 5th Davis Legacy 7th San Juan SC 1st MVLA 3rd COSC 10th Stanislaus Surf 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.36 · 11th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
04:20 PM		 Stanislaus Surf
9th · 3-0-7 · GD -26		 Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.60 0.30 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Santa Rosa United
12th · 1-0-10 · GD -76		 Home
Stanford Sports Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.86 0.42 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
10:00 AM		 COSC
10th · 1-0-7 · GD -36		 Home
Stanford Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–2 1.35 0.49 Upside
Sun Nov 22
10:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
7th · 4-2-5 · GD +9		 Away far trip
Playfields Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–5 0.10 0.46 Upside
Sun Apr 4
08:00 AM		 Force
6th · 4-0-4 · GD -8		 Away far trip
De Anza College		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–3 0.39 0.46 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Force
6th · 4-0-4 · GD -8		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–2 0.56 0.46 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Marin FC
8th · 4-1-6 · GD +8		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.12 0.44 Upside
Sun Apr 18
10:00 AM		 COSC
10th · 1-0-7 · GD -36		 Away far trip
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.06 0.48 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 MVLA
3rd · 8-2-0 · GD +49		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.01 0.45 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 San Juan SC
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +56		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–9 0.00 0.43 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 Bay Area Surf
4th · 7-1-1 · GD +28		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.03 0.41 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Juan SC 9810 593+56 252.78 WDWWW -0.93 +0.09 100% 1.4
2 Mustang SC 8710 232+21 222.75 WWWWW -0.28 -0.24 99% 2.6
3 MVLA 10820 567+49 262.60 WWWWW -1.24 +0.50 100% 2.6
4 Bay Area Surf 9711 357+28 222.44 WLDWW -0.09 -0.14 96% 3.4
5 Placer United 12705 3511+24 211.75 WWWLL -0.17 -0.07 5% 5.0
6 Force 8404 1220-8 121.50 WWLWW -1.10 +0.61 0% 8.0
7 Davis Legacy 11425 3223+9 141.27 DLWLL -0.36 +0.38 0% 7.0
8 Marin FC 11416 2416+8 131.18 DWLLL +0.57 -0.45 0% 6.3
9 Stanislaus Surf 10307 1036-26 90.90 LLLWW +0.60 -0.25 0% 8.8
10 COSC 8107 642-36 30.38 LLLLL +0.24 +0.31 0% 10.5
11 Pleasanton RAGE 111010 554-49 30.27 LLLLL +1.01 -0.36 0% 10.7
12 Santa Rosa United 111010 884-76 30.27 WLLLL +0.60 +0.29 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.