Davis Legacy
ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU13 · 12 teams · Davis Legacy Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 9 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.2 for, 4.6 against · 0.19 expected points)
| Season so far | Davis Legacy | San Juan SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-5 | 8-1-0 |
| Points per game | 1.27 | 2.78 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 6.6 |
| Goals against / game | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 7 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L D | W W W D W |
| Biggest win | 9–1 vs COSC | 17–0 vs Santa Rosa United |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs Bay Area Surf | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.44 | +4.13 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.36 | -0.93 |
Common opponents: Pleasanton RAGE — we 3–0; they 5–0. Santa Rosa United — we 7–0; they 17–0. Placer United — we 0–1; they 3–1. COSC — we 9–1; they 8–0. Marin FC — we 2–2, 3–1; they 2–0, 3–0. Bay Area Surf — we 1–5; they 2–2. Stanislaus Surf — we 3–4, 1–3; they 12–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
San Juan SC score 6.6/game — well above the league's 2.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
San Juan SC concede only 0.3/game with 7 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Mustang SC, 0–1 vs Placer United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 4%; a draw (6%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
San Juan SC have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the San Juan SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Davis Legacy – San Juan SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.17 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.42 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Loss 1.17 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we fall to at least 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th 20%
- 7th 62%
- 8th 16%
- 9th 1%
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.14 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Juan SC | 2.78 (+1.51) | 1st (2.60) | 48 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Mustang SC | 2.75 (+1.48) | 2nd (2.40) | 47 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | MVLA | 2.60 (+1.33) | 3rd (2.38) | 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Bay Area Surf | 2.44 (+1.17) | 4th (2.26) | 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Placer United | 1.75 (+0.48) | 5th (1.86) | 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 6 | Force | 1.50 (+0.23) | 8th (1.11) | 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
How the results connect
82 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Davis Legacy to San Juan SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.38 · 3rd hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
San Juan SC 1st · 8-1-0 · GD +56 |
Home Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.19 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 07:00 PM |
Placer United 5th · 7-0-5 · GD +24 |
Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.63 | 1.14 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
COSC 10th · 1-0-7 · GD -36 |
Away far trip
Edison High School Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.73 | 1.25 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
Force 6th · 4-0-4 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 10:00 AM |
Pleasanton RAGE 11th · 1-0-10 · GD -49 |
Home Playfields Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–0 | 2.87 | 1.40 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
San Juan SC 1st · 8-1-0 · GD +56 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.11 | 1.32 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
Santa Rosa United 12th · 1-0-10 · GD -76 |
Home Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–1 | 2.96 | 1.41 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 10:00 AM |
Force 6th · 4-0-4 · GD -8 |
Home Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.21 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Bay Area Surf 4th · 7-1-1 · GD +28 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.43 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
MVLA 3rd · 8-2-0 · GD +49 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.22 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Mustang SC 2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +21 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.42 | 1.30 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | San Juan SC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 3 | +56 | 25 | 2.78 | WDWWW | -0.93 | +0.09 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Mustang SC · Sat Oct 10 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Mustang SC | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 2 | +21 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWWW | -0.28 | -0.24 | 99% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Oct 4 vs San Juan SC · Sun Oct 25 vs COSC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | MVLA | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 7 | +49 | 26 | 2.60 | WWWWW | -1.24 | +0.50 | 100% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Force · Sun Oct 25 at Bay Area Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Bay Area Surf | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 7 | +28 | 22 | 2.44 | WLDWW | -0.09 | -0.14 | 97% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at COSC · Sun Oct 18 vs COSC · Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Placer United | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 11 | +24 | 21 | 1.75 | WWWLL | -0.17 | -0.07 | 5% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 8 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Apr 3 vs Force See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Force | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 12 | 1.50 | WWLWW | -1.10 | +0.61 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Sun Nov 8 at MVLA See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Davis Legacy | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 14 | 1.27 | DLWLL | -0.36 | +0.38 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Marin FC | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 13 | 1.18 | DWLLL | +0.57 | -0.45 | 0% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 at Mustang SC · Sun Nov 15 at Stanislaus Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Stanislaus Surf | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 9 | 0.90 | LLLWW | +0.60 | -0.25 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 27 at Mustang SC · Sun Oct 25 at Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Pleasanton RAGE See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | COSC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 42 | -36 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLLL | +0.24 | +0.31 | 0% | 10.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at San Juan SC · Sun Oct 11 vs Bay Area Surf · Sun Oct 18 at Bay Area Surf See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Pleasanton RAGE | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 54 | -49 | 3 | 0.27 | LLLLL | +1.01 | -0.36 | 0% | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 15 vs COSC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Santa Rosa United | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 84 | -76 | 3 | 0.27 | WLLLL | +0.60 | +0.29 | 0% | 11.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 8 at Pleasanton RAGE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.