TableChase Clubs

COSC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU13 · 12 teams · California Odyssey Soccer Club (all teams)

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10th
1-0-7 record · 8 played
0.38 points per game
-36 goal diff · 6–42
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.5
+0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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COSC
10th · 0.38 PPG
at
Mustang SC
2nd · 2.75 PPG

Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf, field 1 ↗ · turf far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.4 for, 5.4 against · 0.03 expected points)

Season so farCOSCMustang SC
Position10th2nd
Record (W-D-L)1-0-77-1-0
Points per game0.382.75
Goals for / game0.82.9
Goals against / game5.30.3
Clean sheets17
Held scoreless40
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W W W W
Biggest win3–0 vs Stanislaus Surf6–0 at Pleasanton RAGE
Worst loss1–9 at Davis Legacy—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.11+1.92
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.24-0.28

Common opponents: Marin FC — we 0–5; they 2–0. MVLA — we 0–6; they 2–2. Stanislaus Surf — we 3–0; they 2–0. Davis Legacy — we 1–9; they 3–0. Placer United — we 0–4; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Mustang SC concede only 0.2/game with 7 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–5 at Marin FC, 0–6 at MVLA, 0–8 vs San Juan SC, 0–4 vs Placer United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 0%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Mustang SC have won 7 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mustang SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (COSC – Mustang SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.33 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1
Win
0.67 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Draw
0.44 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1
Loss
0.33 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 54%
  11. 11th 36%
  12. 12th 9%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.05 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Juan SC 2.78 (+2.40) 1st (2.60) 59 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Mustang SC 2.75 (+2.37) 2nd (2.40) 58 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 MVLA 2.60 (+2.22) 3rd (2.38) 55 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Bay Area Surf 2.44 (+2.06) 4th (2.26) 51 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Placer United 1.75 (+1.37) 5th (1.86) 36 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
6 Force 1.50 (+1.12) 8th (1.11) 30 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 Davis Legacy 1.27 (+0.89) 7th (1.30) 25 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8 Marin FC 1.18 (+0.80) 6th (1.45) 23 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
9 Stanislaus Surf 0.90 (+0.52) 9th (0.95) 17 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection

How the results connect

62 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link COSC to Mustang SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
2 even
54 favour them
-7.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 0–2 0–4 0–1 0–6 2–2 0–5 0–2 1–9 0–3 3–2 0–4 0–2 7–0 0–2 4–3 11–0 0–6 COSC 10th Stanislaus Surf 9th Placer United 5th MVLA 3rd Marin FC 8th Davis Legacy 7th Pleasanton RAGE 11th Mustang SC 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.31 · 4th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 10
02:00 PM
no score posted		 San Juan SC
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +56		 Away far trip
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–9 0.00 0.33 Upside
Sun Oct 11
12:00 PM
no score posted		 Bay Area Surf
4th · 7-1-1 · GD +28		 Home
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.04 0.30 Upside
Sun Oct 18
10:55 AM
no score posted		 Bay Area Surf
4th · 7-1-1 · GD +28		 Away far trip
Willow Glen High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.02 0.28 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Mustang SC
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +21		 Away far trip
Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–5 0.03 0.26 Upside
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 Force
6th · 4-0-4 · GD -8		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.46 0.27 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
7th · 4-2-5 · GD +9		 Home
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.21 0.27 Upside
Sun Nov 15
10:00 AM		 Pleasanton RAGE
11th · 1-0-10 · GD -49		 Away far trip
Stanford Sports Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–1 1.45 0.35 Upside
Sun Mar 14
10:00 AM		 Marin FC
8th · 4-1-6 · GD +8		 Home
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.23 0.34 Upside
Sun Apr 4
10:00 AM		 Mustang SC
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +21		 Home
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–4 0.05 0.32 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 MVLA
3rd · 8-2-0 · GD +49		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.01 0.30 Upside
Sun Apr 18
10:00 AM		 Pleasanton RAGE
11th · 1-0-10 · GD -49		 Home
Edison High School Fields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.74 0.38 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
02:00 PM		 Placer United
5th · 7-0-5 · GD +24		 Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.05 0.36 Upside
Sun May 2
09:00 AM		 Stanislaus Surf
9th · 3-0-7 · GD -26		 Away far trip
River Islands Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–2 0.71 0.38 Upside
Sun May 9
10:00 AM		 Santa Rosa United
12th · 1-0-10 · GD -76		 Home
Edison High School Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.10 0.46 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Juan SC 9810 593+56 252.78 WDWWW -0.93 +0.09 100% 1.4
2 Mustang SC 8710 232+21 222.75 WWWWW -0.28 -0.24 99% 2.6
3 MVLA 10820 567+49 262.60 WWWWW -1.24 +0.50 100% 2.6
4 Bay Area Surf 9711 357+28 222.44 WLDWW -0.09 -0.14 96% 3.4
5 Placer United 12705 3511+24 211.75 WWWLL -0.17 -0.07 5% 5.0
6 Force 8404 1220-8 121.50 WWLWW -1.10 +0.61 0% 8.0
7 Davis Legacy 11425 3223+9 141.27 DLWLL -0.36 +0.38 0% 7.0
8 Marin FC 11416 2416+8 131.18 DWLLL +0.57 -0.45 0% 6.3
9 Stanislaus Surf 10307 1036-26 90.90 LLLWW +0.60 -0.25 0% 8.8
10 COSC 8107 642-36 30.38 LLLLL +0.24 +0.31 0% 10.5
11 Pleasanton RAGE 111010 554-49 30.27 LLLLL +1.01 -0.36 0% 10.7
12 Santa Rosa United 111010 884-76 30.27 WLLLL +0.60 +0.29 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.