TableChase Clubs

Mustang SC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Golden State GU13 · 12 teams · Mustang Soccer (all teams)

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2nd
7-1-0 record · 8 played
2.75 points per game
+21 goal diff · 23–2
WWWWWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6
-0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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Mustang SC
2nd · 2.75 PPG
vs
COSC
10th · 0.38 PPG

Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf, field 1 ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.4 for, 0.4 against · 2.96 expected points)

Season so farMustang SCCOSC
Position2nd10th
Record (W-D-L)7-1-01-0-7
Points per game2.750.38
Goals for / game2.90.8
Goals against / game0.35.3
Clean sheets71
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)W W W W WL L L L L
Biggest win6–0 at Pleasanton RAGE3–0 vs Stanislaus Surf
Worst loss—1–9 at Davis Legacy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.92-3.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.28+0.24

Common opponents: MVLA — we 2–2; they 0–6. Placer United — we 1–0; they 0–4. Davis Legacy — we 3–0; they 1–9. Marin FC — we 2–0; they 0–5. Stanislaus Surf — we 2–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    COSC average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 4 of 8.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    COSC concede 5.2/game; worst result 1–9 at Davis Legacy.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 98% chance; likely score 5–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    COSC have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the COSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mustang SC – COSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.78 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.78 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.56 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.44 PPG		 4th▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

14% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
2.6 average finish
  1. 1st 14%
  2. 2nd 32%
  3. 3rd 35%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.91 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Juan SC 2.78 (+0.03) 1st (2.60) 40 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection

How the results connect

62 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Mustang SC to COSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

54 favour us
2 even
6 favour them
+7.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 0–3 1–0 4–0 2–2 6–0 2–0 5–0 3–0 9–1 4–0 2–3 2–0 6–0 0–11 0–7 3–4 2–0 Mustang SC 2nd Stanislaus Surf 9th Placer United 5th MVLA 3rd Marin FC 8th Davis Legacy 7th Pleasanton RAGE 11th COSC 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 15 Aug 29 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.24 · 9th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
09:00 AM
no score posted		 Stanislaus Surf
9th · 3-0-7 · GD -26		 Home
Provident Field @ MSC		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 3–0 2.83 2.76 Bank it
Sun Oct 4
TBD
no score posted		 San Juan SC
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +56		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–1 1.02 2.59 Upside
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 COSC
10th · 1-0-7 · GD -36		 Home
Diablo Vista Park-MTV Turf · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 5–0 2.96 2.62 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 Bay Area Surf
4th · 7-1-1 · GD +28		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.38 2.52 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Marin FC
8th · 4-1-6 · GD +8		 Home
Provident Field @ MSC		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 1–0 2.20 2.49 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 Santa Rosa United
12th · 1-0-10 · GD -76		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 6–0 2.98 2.53 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
09:00 AM		 Force
6th · 4-0-4 · GD -8		 Home
Provident Field @ MSC		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–0 2.68 2.54 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 MVLA
3rd · 8-2-0 · GD +49		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.36 2.46 Upside
Sun Apr 4
10:00 AM		 COSC
10th · 1-0-7 · GD -36		 Away far trip
Edison High School Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 4–0 2.92 2.49 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Placer United
5th · 7-0-5 · GD +24		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–0 1.78 2.45 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Santa Rosa United
12th · 1-0-10 · GD -76		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
100%		 7–0 2.99 2.48 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 San Juan SC
1st · 8-1-0 · GD +56		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–1 0.80 2.40 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Force
6th · 4-0-4 · GD -8		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 2–0 2.55 2.40 Bank it
Sun May 9
TBD		 Davis Legacy
7th · 4-2-5 · GD +9		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 2–0 2.44 2.40 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Juan SC 9810 593+56 252.78 WDWWW -0.93 +0.09 100% 1.4
2 Mustang SC 8710 232+21 222.75 WWWWW -0.28 -0.24 99% 2.6
3 MVLA 10820 567+49 262.60 WWWWW -1.24 +0.50 100% 2.6
4 Bay Area Surf 9711 357+28 222.44 WLDWW -0.09 -0.14 96% 3.4
5 Placer United 12705 3511+24 211.75 WWWLL -0.17 -0.07 5% 5.0
6 Force 8404 1220-8 121.50 WWLWW -1.10 +0.61 0% 8.0
7 Davis Legacy 11425 3223+9 141.27 DLWLL -0.36 +0.38 0% 7.0
8 Marin FC 11416 2416+8 131.18 DWLLL +0.57 -0.45 0% 6.3
9 Stanislaus Surf 10307 1036-26 90.90 LLLWW +0.60 -0.25 0% 8.8
10 COSC 8107 642-36 30.38 LLLLL +0.24 +0.31 0% 10.5
11 Pleasanton RAGE 111010 554-49 30.27 LLLLL +1.01 -0.36 0% 10.7
12 Santa Rosa United 111010 884-76 30.27 WLLLL +0.60 +0.29 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.