North Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · Twin Cities BU13 · 16 teams · North Surf (all teams)

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9th

2-0-3 record · 5 played

1.20 points per game

+6 goal diff · 14–8

LLLWWlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.1

+0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM

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North Surf
9th · 1.20 PPG

Wave SC
11th · 1.00 PPG

National Sports Center, Field 27 ↗

65% 17% 18%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 1.4 against · 2.13 expected points)

Season so far	North Surf	Wave SC
Position	9th	11th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-3	1-2-2
Points per game	1.20	1.00
Goals for / game	2.8	1.6
Goals against / game	1.6	1.6
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	3	1
Form (recent first)	W W L L L	L W L D D
Biggest win	13–0 at MapleBrook SC	3–0 at MapleBrook SC
Worst loss	0–5 vs Tonka United SA	1–3 at DASC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.85	-0.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.07	-0.66

Common opponents: DASC — we 0–2; they 1–3. Salvo SC — we 0–1; they 0–0. Fusion Soccer Club — we 1–0; they 1–2. MapleBrook SC — we 13–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 vs Tonka United SA, 0–2 at DASC, 0–1 at Salvo SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 65% / draw 17% / loss 18%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Wave SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (North Surf – Wave SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.50 PPG	9th— holds	8th▲ up 1	9th— holds
Win 1.50 PPG	9th— holds	8th▲ up 1	9th— holds
Draw 1.17 PPG	10th▼ down 1	10th▼ down 1	10th▼ down 1
Loss 1.00 PPG	11th▼ down 2	11th▼ down 2	11th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

9.1 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th 32%
9th 42%
10th 11%
11th 15%
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Tonka United SA	2.50 (+1.30)	1st (2.50)	9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	DASC	2.25 (+1.05)	2nd (2.25)	8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Centennial SC	2.20 (+1.00)	3rd (2.20)	8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Minnesota Rush	2.00 (+0.80)	4th (2.00)	6 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Fusion Soccer Club	2.00 (+0.80)	5th (2.00)	6 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	Boreal FC	2.00 (+0.80)	6th (1.89)	6 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7	MN Thunder Academy	1.75 (+0.55)	8th (1.52)	5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8	Salvo SC	1.67 (+0.47)	7th (1.67)	5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

21 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link North Surf to Wave SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us

3 even

6 favour them

+2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.20 · 6th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM	Wave SC 11th · 1-2-2 · GD +0	Home National Sports Center	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.13	1.35	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Tonka United SA

+22

2.50

WWWLW

-0.38

—

100%

1.0

DASC

2.25

WWLWL

+0.22

—

100%

2.7

Centennial SC

+10

2.20

WDWWD

-0.35

+0.52

83%

2.9

D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Minnesota Rush (4th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Keliix-Intra SC (15th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Minneapolis United (14th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Park Valley United FC (10th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Western Wisconsin Soccer (13th)	4–0

Next: Fri Oct 23 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	vs	MN Thunder Academy (7th)	2–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Minnesota Rush

2.00

WDWDW

+0.13

—

68%

4.3

Fusion Soccer Club

2.00

WWLWL

-0.17

—

5.3

Boreal FC

2.00

DLWWW

-0.07

+0.52

38%

6.0

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	DASC (2nd)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Park Valley United FC (10th)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Keliix-Intra SC (15th)	2–0
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	Western Wisconsin Soccer (13th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Minnesota Rush (4th)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at MN Thunder Academy See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	MN Thunder Academy (7th)	2–2	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MN Thunder Academy

1.75

WLWD

-0.20

+0.84

7.8

D	Sun Oct 11	at	Park Valley United FC (10th)	3–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Western Wisconsin Soccer (13th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Minnesota Rush (4th)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Keliix-Intra SC (15th)	7–0

Next: Fri Oct 23 at Centennial SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Boreal FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	at	Centennial SC (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Boreal FC (6th)	2–2	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Salvo SC

1.67

LLWWW

-0.30

—

6.8

North Surf

1.20

LLLWW

+0.07

-0.20

9.1

W	Sun Oct 11	at	MapleBrook SC (16th)	13–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Fusion Soccer Club (5th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Salvo SC (8th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	DASC (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Tonka United SA (1st)	0–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Wave SC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Wave SC (11th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Park Valley United FC

1.20

WDDLD

+0.37

-0.97

9.5

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	MN Thunder Academy (7th)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Boreal FC (6th)	3–4
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Centennial SC (3rd)	1–1
D	Fri Sep 18	vs	Minnesota Rush (4th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Keliix-Intra SC (15th)	4–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Minneapolis United See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Minneapolis United (14th)	2–1	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wave SC

1.00

DDLWL

-0.66

+0.85

11.3

L	Sat Sep 26	at	DASC (2nd)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	MapleBrook SC (16th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Fusion Soccer Club (5th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	EPSC (12th)	3–3
D	Fri Sep 11	vs	Salvo SC (8th)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at North Surf See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	North Surf (9th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

EPSC

-16

0.67

DLWLL

+0.07

—

13.6

Western Wisconsin Soccer

-7

0.60

LWLLL

+0.44

-1.32

12.5

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Minnesota Rush (4th)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	MN Thunder Academy (7th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Minneapolis United (14th)	0–1
W	Fri Sep 18	at	Boreal FC (6th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Centennial SC (3rd)	0–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keliix-Intra SC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Keliix-Intra SC (15th)	1–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Minneapolis United

-8

0.60

LWLLL

+0.05

+0.34

13.7

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Keliix-Intra SC (15th)	1–3
L	Fri Sep 25	at	DASC (2nd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Centennial SC (3rd)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Western Wisconsin Soccer (13th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Minnesota Rush (4th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Park Valley United FC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Park Valley United FC (10th)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Keliix-Intra SC

-12

0.60

LLLLW

+0.29

-0.74

13.5

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Minneapolis United (14th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Centennial SC (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Boreal FC (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	MN Thunder Academy (7th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Park Valley United FC (10th)	1–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Western Wisconsin Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Western Wisconsin Soccer (13th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MapleBrook SC

-29

0.00

LLLLL

+0.40

—

16.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.