Boreal FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Twin Cities BU13 · 16 teams · Boreal FC (all teams)

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6th

3-1-1 record · 5 played

2.00 points per game

+4 goal diff · 10–6

DLWWWlast 5

33% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.2

-0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:15 AM

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Boreal FC
6th · 2.00 PPG

MN Thunder Academy
5th · 2.00 PPG

Winter Park, Fieldhouse 1 ↗

33% 19% 48%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.4 against · 1.18 expected points)

Season so far	Boreal FC	MN Thunder Academy
Position	6th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-1	3-1-1
Points per game	2.00	2.00
Goals for / game	2.0	3.2
Goals against / game	1.2	2.0
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	2	1
Form (recent first)	W W W L D	W D W L W
Biggest win	2–0 at Keliix-Intra SC	7–0 vs Keliix-Intra SC
Worst loss	0–1 vs Western Wisconsin Soccer	0–4 at Minnesota Rush
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.49	+0.79
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.07	+0.03

Common opponents: Minnesota Rush — we 0–0; they 0–4. Western Wisconsin Soccer — we 0–1; they 3–2. Keliix-Intra SC — we 2–0; they 7–0. Park Valley United FC — we 4–3; they 3–3.

Game plan

Respect their attack
MN Thunder Academy score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Minnesota Rush, 0–1 vs Western Wisconsin Soccer.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 33%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 08:15 AM at Winter Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:15 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
MN Thunder Academy sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.
A point moves us above MN Thunder Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the MN Thunder Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boreal FC – MN Thunder Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.67 PPG	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2
Win 2.17 PPG	3rd▲ up 3	3rd▲ up 3	3rd▲ up 3
Draw 1.83 PPG	7th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 1
Loss 1.67 PPG	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

33% top 4

67% below the top 4

6.2 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 33%
4th
5th
6th
7th 19%
8th 49%
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.17 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Tonka United SA	2.50 (+0.50)	1st (2.50)	5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	DASC	2.25 (+0.25)	2nd (2.25)	4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Minnesota Rush	2.00 (+0.00)	3rd (2.00)	A point next game
4	Fusion Soccer Club	2.00 (+0.00)	4th (2.00)	A point next game
5	MN Thunder Academy	2.00 (+0.00)	5th (1.94)	A point next game

How the results connect

14 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Boreal FC to MN Thunder Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

1 even

8 favour them

-0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.79 · 2nd hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 08:15 AM	MN Thunder Academy 5th · 3-1-1 · GD +6	Away Winter Park	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–2	1.18	1.86	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Tonka United SA

+22

2.50

WWWLW

-0.38

—

100%

1.0

DASC

2.25

WWLWL

+0.22

—

100%

2.0

Minnesota Rush

2.00

WDWDW

+0.11

—

100%

3.8

Fusion Soccer Club

2.00

WWLWL

-0.16

—

19%

4.8

MN Thunder Academy

2.00

WLWDW

+0.03

+0.49

49%

5.0

W	Fri Oct 23	at	Centennial SC (7th)	3–1
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Park Valley United FC (10th)	3–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Western Wisconsin Soccer (13th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Minnesota Rush (3rd)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Keliix-Intra SC (15th)	7–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Boreal FC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Boreal FC (6th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boreal FC

2.00

DLWWW

-0.07

+0.79

33%

6.2

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	DASC (2nd)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Park Valley United FC (10th)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Keliix-Intra SC (15th)	2–0
L	Fri Sep 18	vs	Western Wisconsin Soccer (13th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Minnesota Rush (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at MN Thunder Academy See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	MN Thunder Academy (5th)	1–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Centennial SC

1.83

DWWDL

-0.13

—

5.8

Salvo SC

1.67

LLWWW

-0.29

—

7.3

North Surf

1.20

LLLWW

+0.07

-0.19

9.4

W	Sun Oct 11	at	MapleBrook SC (16th)	13–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Fusion Soccer Club (4th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Salvo SC (8th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	DASC (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Tonka United SA (1st)	0–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Wave SC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Wave SC (11th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Park Valley United FC

1.20

WDDLD

+0.36

-0.97

9.8

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	MN Thunder Academy (5th)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Boreal FC (6th)	3–4
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Centennial SC (7th)	1–1
D	Fri Sep 18	vs	Minnesota Rush (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Keliix-Intra SC (15th)	4–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Minneapolis United See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Minneapolis United (14th)	2–1	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wave SC

1.00

DDLWL

-0.65

+0.84

11.4

L	Sat Sep 26	at	DASC (2nd)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	MapleBrook SC (16th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Fusion Soccer Club (4th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	EPSC (12th)	3–3
D	Fri Sep 11	vs	Salvo SC (8th)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at North Surf See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	North Surf (9th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

EPSC

-16

0.67

DLWLL

+0.07

—

13.6

Western Wisconsin Soccer

-7

0.60

LWLLL

+0.42

-1.31

12.5

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Minnesota Rush (3rd)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	MN Thunder Academy (5th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Minneapolis United (14th)	0–1
W	Fri Sep 18	at	Boreal FC (6th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Centennial SC (7th)	0–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keliix-Intra SC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Keliix-Intra SC (15th)	1–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Minneapolis United

-8

0.60

LWLLL

-0.03

+0.33

13.7

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Keliix-Intra SC (15th)	1–3
L	Fri Sep 25	at	DASC (2nd)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Centennial SC (7th)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Western Wisconsin Soccer (13th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Minnesota Rush (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Park Valley United FC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Park Valley United FC (10th)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Keliix-Intra SC

-12

0.60

LLLLW

+0.26

-0.74

13.6

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Minneapolis United (14th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Centennial SC (7th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Boreal FC (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	MN Thunder Academy (5th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Park Valley United FC (10th)	1–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Western Wisconsin Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Western Wisconsin Soccer (13th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MapleBrook SC

-29

0.00

LLLLL

+0.40

—

16.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.