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Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU18/19 · 16 teams · Kernow Storm FC (all teams)

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15th
0-1-6 record · 7 played
0.14 points per game
-26 goal diff · 2–28
LDLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.1
+0.56 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM

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Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz
15th · 0.14 PPG
vs
FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
7th · 1.44 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.8 against · 0.46 expected points)

Season so farKernow Storm FC NTX ResendizFC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
Position15th7th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-64-1-4
Points per game0.141.44
Goals for / game0.31.7
Goals against / game4.02.0
Clean sheets04
Held scoreless53
Form (recent first)L L L D LL L L W D
Biggest win—7–0 vs Fever United FC NTX
Worst loss0–8 at Dallas Texans Red NTX0–6 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.36-0.29
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.56+0.08

Common opponents: Sting NTX — we 0–5; they 3–1. Atletico Dallas Youth NTX — we 0–2; they 0–3. FC Dallas Youth NTX Sedeh — we 1–1; they 1–3. FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres — we 1–7; they 0–6.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–5 vs Sting NTX, 0–2 at Atletico Dallas Youth NTX, 0–1 vs DKSC WHITE NTX, 0–4 at Nido Dallas White NTX, 0–8 at Dallas Texans Red NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 10%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX have lost 3 straight (form: DWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    DKSC WHITE NTX sit 14th on 0.38 PPG; we are on 0.14.

    A point moves us above DKSC WHITE NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz – FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.13 PPG		 15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1
Win
0.50 PPG		 14th▲ up 1 14th▲ up 1 15th— holds
Draw
0.25 PPG		 15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1
Loss
0.13 PPG		 15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 15th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th 2%
  14. 14th 14%
  15. 15th 59%
  16. 16th 24%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.78 (+2.64) 1st (2.54) 41 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Texans Red NTX 2.67 (+2.53) 2nd (2.45) 40 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Nido Dallas NTX Morales 2.43 (+2.29) 4th (2.09) 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres 2.22 (+2.08) 3rd (2.14) 33 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 2.00 (+1.86) 5th (1.88) 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 FC Dallas Youth NTX Sedeh 2.00 (+1.86) 6th (1.83) 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 1.44 (+1.30) 9th (1.38) 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8 SOLAR BLUE NTX 1.40 (+1.26) 7th (1.49) 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 Nido Dallas White NTX 1.25 (+1.11) 8th (1.39) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 Sting NTX 1.11 (+0.97) 11th (1.24) 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
11 Texas Warriors FC NTX 1.10 (+0.96) 10th (1.32) 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
12 SOLAR RED NTX 0.89 (+0.75) 12th (1.13) 13 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
13 FC Dallas Youth NTX Mbemba 0.56 (+0.42) 13th (0.77) 8 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
14 DKSC WHITE NTX 0.38 (+0.24) 14th (0.52) A point next game

How the results connect

36 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz to FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
3 even
24 favour them
-2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–7 6–0 0–2 3–0 1–1 3–1 0–5 1–3 2–0 0–0 1–0 5–1 0–8 3–2 0–4 0–1 3–0 1–0 0–1 1–3 4–2 0–1 Kernow Storm FC NTX… 15th FC Dallas Youth NTX… 4th Atletico Dallas You… 1st FC Dallas Youth NTX… 6th Sting NTX 10th Dallas Texans Red N… 2nd Nido Dallas White N… 9th DKSC WHITE NTX 14th SOLAR RED NTX 12th Texas Warriors FC N… 11th SOLAR BLUE NTX 8th FC Dallas Youth Nav… 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 21 Aug 30 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.19 · 12th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 Nido Dallas NTX Morales
3rd · 5-2-0 · GD +13		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–4 0.07 0.13 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM		 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
7th · 4-1-4 · GD -3		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.46 0.17 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:40 AM		 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
5th · 5-1-2 · GD +9		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.10 0.16 Upside
Sun Nov 8
05:10 PM		 FC Dallas Youth NTX Mbemba
13th · 1-2-6 · GD -6		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–2 0.40 0.18 Upside
Sun Apr 4
07:00 PM		 Texas Warriors FC NTX
11th · 3-2-5 · GD +4		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.28 0.19 Upside
Sun Apr 11
05:10 PM		 Fever United FC NTX
16th · 0-1-7 · GD -36		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 1–1 1.79 0.32 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
11:40 AM		 SOLAR BLUE NTX
8th · 4-2-4 · GD +1		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
4%		 0–3 0.21 0.31 Upside
Sun Apr 25
08:00 AM		 SOLAR RED NTX
12th · 2-2-5 · GD -2		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 0–2 0.43 0.32 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 9810 248+16 252.78 WWWWW +0.11 -0.42 100% 1.6
2 Dallas Texans Red NTX 9801 3110+21 242.67 WLWWW -0.33 +0.16 99% 1.9
3 Nido Dallas NTX Morales 7520 218+13 172.43 WDWWD -0.55 +0.32 72% 3.8
4 FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres 9621 2711+16 202.22 WWDLW -0.11 -0.08 84% 3.5
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8512 2112+9 162.00 LLWDW -0.09 -0.01 30% 5.2
6 FC Dallas Youth NTX Sedeh 9531 1611+5 182.00 WWDWD -0.03 -0.03 14% 5.6
7 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 9414 1518-3 131.44 DWLLL +0.08 -0.02 0% 9.3
8 SOLAR BLUE NTX 10424 1918+1 141.40 DWDWW +0.10 -0.39 0% 8.0
9 Nido Dallas White NTX 8314 1512+3 101.25 DLWWL -0.08 -0.01 1% 8.8
10 Sting NTX 9315 1512+3 101.11 DLLWW -0.21 +0.20 0% 10.1
11 Texas Warriors FC NTX 10325 2016+4 111.10 WWDLL +0.12 -0.39 0% 9.3
12 SOLAR RED NTX 9225 1315-2 80.89 DLDLL +0.31 -0.46 0% 11.0
13 FC Dallas Youth NTX Mbemba 9126 1218-6 50.56 LDLLW -0.07 +0.09 0% 12.9
14 DKSC WHITE NTX 8107 523-18 30.38 LLLLL +0.30 -0.14 0% 14.1
15 Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz 7016 228-26 10.14 LDLLL +0.56 -0.19 0% 15.1
16 Fever United FC NTX 8017 238-36 10.13 LDLLL +0.40 -0.10 0% 15.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.85 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.