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FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU18/19 · 16 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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7th
4-1-4 record · 9 played
1.44 points per game
-3 goal diff · 15–18
DWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.2
+0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM

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FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
7th · 1.44 PPG
at
Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz
15th · 0.14 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.0 against · 2.40 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth Navy NTXKernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz
Position7th15th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-40-1-6
Points per game1.440.14
Goals for / game1.70.3
Goals against / game2.04.0
Clean sheets40
Held scoreless35
Form (recent first)L L L W DL L L D L
Biggest win7–0 vs Fever United FC NTX—
Worst loss0–6 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres0–8 at Dallas Texans Red NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.29-2.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.08+0.56

Common opponents: Sting NTX — we 3–1; they 0–5. Atletico Dallas Youth NTX — we 0–3; they 0–2. FC Dallas Youth NTX Sedeh — we 1–3; they 1–1. FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres — we 0–6; they 1–7.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 5 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–8 at Dallas Texans Red NTX.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 vs SOLAR RED NTX, 0–3 at Atletico Dallas Youth NTX, 0–6 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX – Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.60 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Win
1.60 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG		 8th▼ down 1 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Loss
1.30 PPG		 8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 17%
  9. 9th 21%
  10. 10th 20%
  11. 11th 16%
  12. 12th 8%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.07 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.78 (+1.34) 1st (2.54) 29 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Texans Red NTX 2.67 (+1.23) 2nd (2.45) 28 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Nido Dallas NTX Morales 2.43 (+0.99) 4th (2.09) 24 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres 2.22 (+0.78) 3rd (2.14) 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 2.00 (+0.56) 5th (1.88) 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
6 FC Dallas Youth NTX Sedeh 2.00 (+0.56) 6th (1.83) 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection

How the results connect

36 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX to Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

24 favour us
3 even
9 favour them
+2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–6 7–1 0–3 2–0 1–3 1–1 3–1 5–0 0–0 0–2 1–5 0–1 1–0 4–0 2–3 8–0 3–1 1–0 0–1 0–3 1–0 2–4 FC Dallas Youth Nav… 7th FC Dallas Youth NTX… 4th Atletico Dallas You… 1st FC Dallas Youth NTX… 6th Sting NTX 10th SOLAR RED NTX 12th Texas Warriors FC N… 11th SOLAR BLUE NTX 8th Nido Dallas White N… 9th Dallas Texans Red N… 2nd DKSC WHITE NTX 14th Kernow Storm FC NTX… 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 21 Aug 30 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 7th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM		 Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz
15th · 0-1-6 · GD -26		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
75%		 2–0 2.40 1.54 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
08:00 AM		 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
5th · 5-1-2 · GD +9		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
25%		 1–2 0.95 1.49 Upside
Sun Apr 4
08:00 AM		 Dallas Texans Red NTX
2nd · 8-0-1 · GD +21		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.38 1.39 Upside
Sun Apr 11
08:00 AM		 Nido Dallas White NTX
9th · 3-1-4 · GD +3		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.92 1.36 Upside
Sun Apr 18
08:00 AM		 Nido Dallas NTX Morales
3rd · 5-2-0 · GD +13		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.77 1.32 Upside
Sun Apr 25
05:10 PM		 DKSC WHITE NTX
14th · 1-0-7 · GD -18		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.27 1.38 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 9810 248+16 252.78 WWWWW +0.11 -0.42 100% 1.6
2 Dallas Texans Red NTX 9801 3110+21 242.67 WLWWW -0.33 +0.16 99% 1.9
3 Nido Dallas NTX Morales 7520 218+13 172.43 WDWWD -0.55 +0.32 71% 3.9
4 FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres 9621 2711+16 202.22 WWDLW -0.11 -0.08 83% 3.5
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8512 2112+9 162.00 LLWDW -0.09 -0.01 32% 5.1
6 FC Dallas Youth NTX Sedeh 9531 1611+5 182.00 WWDWD -0.03 -0.03 15% 5.6
7 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 9414 1518-3 131.44 DWLLL +0.08 -0.02 0% 9.2
8 SOLAR BLUE NTX 10424 1918+1 141.40 DWDWW +0.10 -0.39 0% 8.1
9 Nido Dallas White NTX 8314 1512+3 101.25 DLWWL -0.08 -0.01 0% 8.8
10 Sting NTX 9315 1512+3 101.11 DLLWW -0.21 +0.20 0% 10.1
11 Texas Warriors FC NTX 10325 2016+4 111.10 WWDLL +0.12 -0.39 0% 9.4
12 SOLAR RED NTX 9225 1315-2 80.89 DLDLL +0.31 -0.46 0% 11.1
13 FC Dallas Youth NTX Mbemba 9126 1218-6 50.56 LDLLW -0.07 +0.09 0% 13.0
14 DKSC WHITE NTX 8107 523-18 30.38 LLLLL +0.30 -0.14 0% 14.1
15 Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz 7016 228-26 10.14 LDLLL +0.56 -0.19 0% 15.1
16 Fever United FC NTX 8017 238-36 10.13 LDLLL +0.40 -0.10 0% 15.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.85 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.