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Dallas Texans Red NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU18/19 · 16 teams · Dallas Texans (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 43 minutes ago.
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2nd
8-0-1 record · 9 played
2.67 points per game
+21 goal diff · 31–10
WLWWWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.9
-0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM

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Dallas Texans Red NTX
2nd · 2.67 PPG
vs
SOLAR RED NTX
12th · 0.89 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 14 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.1 against · 2.38 expected points)

Season so farDallas Texans Red NTXSOLAR RED NTX
Position2nd12th
Record (W-D-L)8-0-12-2-5
Points per game2.670.89
Goals for / game3.41.4
Goals against / game1.11.7
Clean sheets42
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)W W W L WL L D L D
Biggest win8–0 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz5–0 at DKSC WHITE NTX
Worst loss1–3 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX0–3 at Nido Dallas White NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.61-0.10
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.33+0.31

Common opponents: SOLAR BLUE NTX — we 2–0; they 1–2. Sting NTX — we 3–1; they 2–1. FC Dallas Youth Red NTX — we 3–2; they 2–3. Atletico Dallas Youth NTX — we 1–3; they 0–2. DKSC WHITE NTX — we 1–0; they 5–0. FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres — we 3–2; they 3–3.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 2–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR RED NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Texans Red NTX – SOLAR RED NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.70 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.70 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.40 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

38% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
1.9 average finish
  1. 1st 38%
  2. 2nd 43%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.78 (+0.11) 1st (2.54) 18 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection

How the results connect

46 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Dallas Texans Red NTX to SOLAR RED NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

34 favour us
7 even
5 favour them
+2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 2–0 3–2 3–3 3–1 1–2 3–2 3–2 2–0 2–1 1–0 0–5 0–1 1–3 1–0 1–3 0–0 6–0 0–7 0–5 4–2 0–1 Dallas Texans Red N… 2nd Atletico Dallas You… 1st FC Dallas Youth NTX… 4th Sting NTX 10th FC Dallas Youth Red… 5th SOLAR BLUE NTX 8th DKSC WHITE NTX 14th Fever United FC NTX 16th Texas Warriors FC N… 11th FC Dallas Youth NTX… 6th FC Dallas Youth Nav… 7th SOLAR RED NTX 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 21 Aug 30 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 3rd hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 FC Dallas Youth NTX Sedeh
6th · 5-3-1 · GD +5		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.07 2.61 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM		 SOLAR RED NTX
12th · 2-2-5 · GD -2		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 2–1 2.38 2.59 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
08:00 AM		 Nido Dallas White NTX
9th · 3-1-4 · GD +3		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 2–1 1.95 2.53 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
08:00 AM		 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
7th · 4-1-4 · GD -3		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–1 2.51 2.53 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
08:00 AM		 Nido Dallas NTX Morales
3rd · 5-2-0 · GD +13		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–1 1.52 2.46 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
11:40 AM		 FC Dallas Youth NTX Mbemba
13th · 1-2-6 · GD -6		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 2–1 2.35 2.45 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 9810 248+16 252.78 WWWWW +0.11 -0.42 100% 1.6
2 Dallas Texans Red NTX 9801 3110+21 242.67 WLWWW -0.33 +0.16 99% 1.9
3 Nido Dallas NTX Morales 7520 218+13 172.43 WDWWD -0.55 +0.32 71% 3.9
4 FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres 9621 2711+16 202.22 WWDLW -0.11 -0.08 83% 3.5
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8512 2112+9 162.00 LLWDW -0.09 -0.01 31% 5.1
6 FC Dallas Youth NTX Sedeh 9531 1611+5 182.00 WWDWD -0.03 -0.03 16% 5.6
7 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 9414 1518-3 131.44 DWLLL +0.08 -0.02 0% 9.2
8 SOLAR BLUE NTX 10424 1918+1 141.40 DWDWW +0.10 -0.39 1% 8.0
9 Nido Dallas White NTX 8314 1512+3 101.25 DLWWL -0.08 -0.01 1% 8.8
10 Sting NTX 9315 1512+3 101.11 DLLWW -0.21 +0.20 0% 10.1
11 Texas Warriors FC NTX 10325 2016+4 111.10 WWDLL +0.12 -0.39 0% 9.4
12 SOLAR RED NTX 9225 1315-2 80.89 DLDLL +0.31 -0.46 0% 11.1
13 FC Dallas Youth NTX Mbemba 9126 1218-6 50.56 LDLLW -0.07 +0.09 0% 12.9
14 DKSC WHITE NTX 8107 523-18 30.38 LLLLL +0.30 -0.14 0% 14.1
15 Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz 7016 228-26 10.14 LDLLL +0.56 -0.19 0% 15.1
16 Fever United FC NTX 8017 238-36 10.13 LDLLL +0.40 -0.10 0% 15.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.85 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.