TableChase Clubs

FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU18/19 · 16 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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4th
6-2-1 record · 9 played
2.22 points per game
+16 goal diff · 27–11
WWDLWlast 5
83% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5
-0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM

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FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres
4th · 2.22 PPG
at

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.1 against · 1.34 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth NTX TorresNido Dallas NTX Morales
Position4th3rd
Record (W-D-L)6-2-15-2-0
Points per game2.222.43
Goals for / game3.03.0
Goals against / game1.21.1
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W L D W WD W W D W
Biggest win7–1 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz4–0 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX Mbemba
Worst loss2–3 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.30+1.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.11-0.55

Common opponents: DKSC WHITE NTX — we 1–0; they 5–1. FC Dallas Youth NTX Sedeh — we 3–1; they 1–1. FC Dallas Youth NTX Mbemba — we 2–1; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Nido Dallas NTX Morales score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 38%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nido Dallas NTX Morales game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres – Nido Dallas NTX Morales) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.10 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Win
2.30 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
2.10 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
83% top 4
17% below the top 4
3.5 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 13%
  3. 3rd 40%
  4. 4th 28%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.78 (+0.56) 1st (2.54) 22 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Texans Red NTX 2.67 (+0.45) 2nd (2.45) 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
3 Nido Dallas NTX Morales 2.43 (+0.21) 4th (2.09) 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection

How the results connect

37 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres to Nido Dallas NTX Morales through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us
11 even
11 favour them
+0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 1–1 2–1 0–4 1–0 1–5 2–3 4–2 1–2 3–1 1–2 3–3 2–1 7–1 0–5 1–1 2–3 3–3 1–0 1–2 0–0 3–4 FC Dallas Youth NTX… 4th FC Dallas Youth NTX… 6th FC Dallas Youth NTX… 13th DKSC WHITE NTX 14th Dallas Texans Red N… 2nd SOLAR RED NTX 12th Kernow Storm FC NTX… 15th Nido Dallas White N… 9th Texas Warriors FC N… 11th Sting NTX 10th SOLAR BLUE NTX 8th Nido Dallas NTX Mor… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 21 Aug 30 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 9th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM
Nido Dallas NTX Morales
3rd · 5-2-0 · GD +13
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.34 2.13 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:20 PM
Texas Warriors FC NTX
11th · 3-2-5 · GD +4
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.05 2.13 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
01:30 PM
Fever United FC NTX
16th · 0-1-7 · GD -36
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
5–0 2.93 2.19 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
07:00 PM
SOLAR BLUE NTX
8th · 4-2-4 · GD +1
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.17 2.19 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
11:40 AM
Sting NTX
10th · 3-1-5 · GD +3
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.04 2.18 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
01:30 PM
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
5th · 5-1-2 · GD +9
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–1 1.57 2.14 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 9810 248+16 252.78 WWWWW +0.11 -0.42 100% 1.6
2 Dallas Texans Red NTX 9801 3110+21 242.67 WLWWW -0.33 +0.16 99% 1.9
3 Nido Dallas NTX Morales 7520 218+13 172.43 WDWWD -0.55 +0.32 71% 3.9
4 FC Dallas Youth NTX Torres 9621 2711+16 202.22 WWDLW -0.11 -0.08 83% 3.5
5 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 8512 2112+9 162.00 LLWDW -0.09 -0.01 32% 5.1
6 FC Dallas Youth NTX Sedeh 9531 1611+5 182.00 WWDWD -0.03 -0.03 15% 5.6
7 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 9414 1518-3 131.44 DWLLL +0.08 -0.02 0% 9.2
8 SOLAR BLUE NTX 10424 1918+1 141.40 DWDWW +0.10 -0.39 0% 8.1
9 Nido Dallas White NTX 8314 1512+3 101.25 DLWWL -0.08 -0.01 0% 8.8
10 Sting NTX 9315 1512+3 101.11 DLLWW -0.21 +0.20 0% 10.1
11 Texas Warriors FC NTX 10325 2016+4 111.10 WWDLL +0.12 -0.39 0% 9.4
12 SOLAR RED NTX 9225 1315-2 80.89 DLDLL +0.31 -0.46 0% 11.1
13 FC Dallas Youth NTX Mbemba 9126 1218-6 50.56 LDLLW -0.07 +0.09 0% 13.0
14 DKSC WHITE NTX 8107 523-18 30.38 LLLLL +0.30 -0.14 0% 14.1
15 Kernow Storm FC NTX Resendiz 7016 228-26 10.14 LDLLL +0.56 -0.19 0% 15.1
16 Fever United FC NTX 8017 238-36 10.13 LDLLL +0.40 -0.10 0% 15.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.85 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.