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Sporting California USA

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU13 · 17 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

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17th
0-0-4 record · 4 played
0.00 points per game
-13 goal diff · 1–14
LLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.3
+1.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM

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Sporting California USA
17th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0.00 PPG

San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.1 against · 1.63 expected points)

Season so farSporting California USAPhoenix Rising FC
Position17th16th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-40-0-3
Points per game0.000.00
Goals for / game0.30.0
Goals against / game3.53.3
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless33
Form (recent first)L L L LL L L
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–6 vs San Diego Surf0–4 vs LAFC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.45-1.62
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.33+0.22

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Phoenix Rising FC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 3 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Phoenix Rising FC concede 3.3/game; worst result 0–4 vs LAFC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 at Blues, 0–6 vs San Diego Surf, 0–2 at Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 46% / draw 26% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Phoenix Rising FC have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Phoenix Rising FC sit 16th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Phoenix Rising FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Phoenix Rising FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA – Phoenix Rising FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.20 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Win
0.60 PPG
14th▲ up 3 13th▲ up 4 16th▲ up 1
Draw
0.20 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 6%
  14. 14th 11%
  15. 15th 17%
  16. 16th 31%
  17. 17th 27%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.48) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.35) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Legends FC 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (2.31) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 LAFC 3.00 (+3.00) 4th (2.13) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 LV Heat Surf 2.40 (+2.40) 5th (2.01) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
6 SLAMMERS FC 2.40 (+2.40) 6th (1.89) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 Blues 1.50 (+1.50) 7th (1.50) 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
8 Rebels SC 1.33 (+1.33) 12th (0.89) 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
9 Beach Futbol Club 1.00 (+1.00) 8th (1.34) 15 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.00 (+1.00) 9th (1.29) 15 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 Eagles SC 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.20) 15 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
12 Legends FC Del Mar 0.67 (+0.67) 11th (0.98) 11 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 0.60 (+0.60) 14th (0.88) Win next game
14 Arizona Arsenal 0.25 (+0.25) 15th (0.80) A point next game
15 LA Breakers FC 0.25 (+0.25) 13th (0.89) A point next game
16 Phoenix Rising FC 0.00 (+0.00) 17th (0.43) Already ahead

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA to Phoenix Rising FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
0 favour them
+4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 1–0 3–0 0–6 10–1 3–0 Sporting California… 17th Legends FC 3rd San Diego Surf 1st LV Heat Surf 5th Utah Royals FC-AZ 13th Phoenix Rising FC 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.34 · 17th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
10:00 AM
no score posted
Eagles SC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●●●● Very tough
15%
0–1 0.67 0.13 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.63 0.38 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Away far trip
Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.49 0.40 Upside
Sat Nov 21
12:00 PM
LV Heat Surf
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +7
Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–2 0.23 0.38 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
6th · 4-0-1 · GD +5
Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.41 0.38 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–1 1.10 0.45 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.78 0.48 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
LAFC
4th · 4-0-0 · GD +7
Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–2 0.21 0.46 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
LA Breakers FC
15th · 0-1-3 · GD -6
Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.01 0.50 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Rebels SC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -6
Home
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.26 0.56 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–1 0.73 0.57 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 2200 161+15 63.00 WW -1.23 +0.01 96% 1.9
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 131+12 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.16 89% 2.6
3 Legends FC 4400 80+8 123.00 WWWW -0.26 -0.00 87% 2.8
4 LAFC 4400 81+7 123.00 WWWW -0.74 +0.18 61% 4.1
5 LV Heat Surf 5401 92+7 122.40 WWWLW -0.31 +0.10 42% 4.7
6 SLAMMERS FC 5401 94+5 122.40 WWWLW -0.22 +0.08 22% 5.5
7 Blues 2101 21+1 31.50 WL -0.16 +0.03 2% 7.8
8 Rebels SC 3111 17-6 41.33 DLW +0.08 +0.07 0% 12.9
9 Beach Futbol Club 4112 43+1 41.00 LDWL -0.01 +0.05 0% 8.9
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3102 45-1 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.01 0% 9.2
11 Eagles SC 3102 25-3 31.00 LWL +0.61 -0.10 0% 10.0
12 Legends FC Del Mar 3021 24-2 20.67 DLD -0.42 +0.14 0% 12.0
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5104 515-10 30.60 LLLWL +0.58 -0.15 0% 12.8
14 Arizona Arsenal 4013 49-5 10.25 LLLD -0.22 +0.14 0% 13.5
15 LA Breakers FC 4013 39-6 10.25 LDLL +0.60 -0.12 0% 12.8
16 Phoenix Rising FC 3003 010-10 00.00 LLL +0.22 +0.09 0% 16.3
17 Sporting California USA 4004 114-13 00.00 LLLL +1.33 -0.34 0% 15.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.