TableChase Clubs

LAFC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU13 · 17 teams · LAFC So Cal (all teams)

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4th
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+7 goal diff · 8–1
WWWWlast 4
61% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0
-0.74 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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LAFC
4th · 3.00 PPG
at
LA Breakers FC
15th · 0.25 PPG

Bell Gardens Sports Complex, Field 4 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.0 for, 0.7 against · 2.25 expected points)

Season so farLAFCLA Breakers FC
Position4th15th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-00-1-3
Points per game3.000.25
Goals for / game2.00.8
Goals against / game0.32.3
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W WL L D L
Biggest win4–0 at Phoenix Rising FC—
Worst loss—0–3 at LV Heat Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.85-0.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.74+0.60

Common opponents: Beach Futbol Club — we 1–0; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    LA Breakers FC concede 2.2/game; worst result 0–3 at LV Heat Surf.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 68% / draw 20% / loss 12%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Bell Gardens Sports Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC sit 3rd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Legends FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Breakers FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAFC – LA Breakers FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds 3rd▲ up 1
Win
3.00 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
2.40 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st
61% top 4
39% below the top 4
4.0 average finish
  1. 1st 6%
  2. 2nd 11%
  3. 3rd 19%
  4. 4th 26%
  5. 5th 21%
  6. 6th 14%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.48) Win next game
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.35) Win next game
3 Legends FC 3.00 (+0.00) 3rd (2.31) Win next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link LAFC to LA Breakers FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
0 favour them
+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 1–1 2–1 0–1 3–0 4–0 0–3 1–0 2–0 4–2 LAFC 4th Beach Futbol Club 9th Utah Royals FC-AZ 13th Phoenix Rising FC 16th Eagles SC 11th LV Heat Surf 5th Pateadores Soccer C… 10th LA Breakers FC 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.18 · 1st hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
LA Breakers FC
15th · 0-1-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–0 2.25 2.85 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
08:30 AM
Slammers FC HB Koge
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Away far trip
Arroyo Park
●●●●● Very tough
24%
0–1 0.99 2.54 Upside
Sat Nov 7
06:15 PM
Legends FC
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +8
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
30%
0–0 1.24 2.35 Upside
Sat Nov 21
06:15 PM
Blues
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–0 1.88 2.29 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
06:15 PM
Rebels SC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -6
Home
Oak Park High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.54 2.32 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-1-3 · GD -5
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
2–0 2.47 2.34 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
6th · 4-0-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–0 1.52 2.26 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
LV Heat Surf
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +7
Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%
0–0 1.29 2.18 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
1–0 2.08 2.17 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -13
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
2–0 2.70 2.21 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
San Diego Surf
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +15
Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.04 2.13 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
1–0 2.15 2.13 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 2200 161+15 63.00 WW -1.23 +0.01 97% 1.9
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 131+12 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.16 91% 2.6
3 Legends FC 4400 80+8 123.00 WWWW -0.26 -0.00 87% 2.9
4 LAFC 4400 81+7 123.00 WWWW -0.74 +0.18 61% 4.0
5 LV Heat Surf 5401 92+7 122.40 WWWLW -0.31 +0.10 39% 4.8
6 SLAMMERS FC 5401 94+5 122.40 WWWLW -0.22 +0.08 22% 5.5
7 Blues 2101 21+1 31.50 WL -0.16 +0.03 2% 7.8
8 Rebels SC 3111 17-6 41.33 DLW +0.08 +0.07 0% 12.9
9 Beach Futbol Club 4112 43+1 41.00 LDWL -0.01 +0.05 0% 8.8
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3102 45-1 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.01 0% 9.1
11 Eagles SC 3102 25-3 31.00 LWL +0.61 -0.10 0% 10.2
12 Legends FC Del Mar 3021 24-2 20.67 DLD -0.42 +0.14 0% 11.9
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5104 515-10 30.60 LLLWL +0.58 -0.15 0% 12.9
14 Arizona Arsenal 4013 49-5 10.25 LLLD -0.22 +0.14 0% 13.5
15 LA Breakers FC 4013 39-6 10.25 LDLL +0.60 -0.12 0% 12.7
16 Phoenix Rising FC 3003 010-10 00.00 LLL +0.22 +0.09 0% 16.2
17 Sporting California USA 4004 114-13 00.00 LLLL +1.33 -0.34 0% 15.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.