TableChase Clubs

Blues

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU13 · 17 teams · So Cal Blues (all teams)

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7th
1-0-1 record · 2 played
1.50 points per game
+1 goal diff · 2–1
WLlast 2
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.9
-0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Blues
7th · 1.50 PPG
vs
LV Heat Surf
5th · 2.40 PPG

OC Great Park, Field 22 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.8 for, 1.2 against · 1.06 expected points)

Season so farBluesLV Heat Surf
Position7th5th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-14-0-1
Points per game1.502.40
Goals for / game1.01.8
Goals against / game0.50.4
Clean sheets13
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L WW L W W W
Biggest win2–0 vs Sporting California USA3–0 vs LA Breakers FC
Worst loss0–1 at Legends FC0–1 vs Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.18+0.77
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.16-0.31

Common opponents: Legends FC — we 0–1; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    LV Heat Surf concede only 0.4/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Legends FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 25%; a draw (31%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Blues – LV Heat Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
9th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 5
Win
2.00 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 7th— holds
Draw
1.33 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 11th▼ down 4
Loss
1.00 PPG
9th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we fall to at least 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
7.9 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 31%
  8. 8th 21%
  9. 9th 12%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.48) 45 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+1.50) 2nd (2.35) 45 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
3 Legends FC 3.00 (+1.50) 3rd (2.31) 45 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 LAFC 3.00 (+1.50) 4th (2.13) 45 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 LV Heat Surf 2.40 (+0.90) 5th (2.01) 36 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
6 SLAMMERS FC 2.40 (+0.90) 6th (1.89) 36 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Blues to LV Heat Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 1–0 2–0 0–2 Blues 7th Legends FC 3rd Sporting California… 17th LV Heat Surf 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 10th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
LV Heat Surf
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +7
Home
OC Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
25%
0–1 1.06 1.35 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Away
Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.45 1.38 Upside
Sat Nov 7
12:30 PM
Beach Futbol Club
9th · 1-1-2 · GD +1
Home
OC Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–0 1.46 1.40 Upside
Sat Nov 21
06:15 PM
LAFC
4th · 4-0-0 · GD +7
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.84 1.30 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
2–0 2.46 1.47 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
LA Breakers FC
15th · 0-1-3 · GD -6
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
1–0 2.01 1.54 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Rebels SC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -6
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
1–0 1.99 1.59 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–0 1.83 1.61 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
1–0 1.95 1.64 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
05:45 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–0 1.65 1.64 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
6th · 4-0-1 · GD +5
Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.26 1.61 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–1 0.76 1.55 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
Eagles SC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–0 1.82 1.57 Swing game
Sun May 23
11:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +15
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.39 1.50 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 2200 161+15 63.00 WW -1.23 +0.01 97% 1.9
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 131+12 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.16 90% 2.6
3 Legends FC 4400 80+8 123.00 WWWW -0.26 -0.00 87% 2.9
4 LAFC 4400 81+7 123.00 WWWW -0.74 +0.18 62% 4.0
5 LV Heat Surf 5401 92+7 122.40 WWWLW -0.31 +0.10 39% 4.8
6 SLAMMERS FC 5401 94+5 122.40 WWWLW -0.22 +0.08 23% 5.4
7 Blues 2101 21+1 31.50 WL -0.16 +0.03 2% 7.9
8 Rebels SC 3111 17-6 41.33 DLW +0.08 +0.07 0% 12.9
9 Beach Futbol Club 4112 43+1 41.00 LDWL -0.01 +0.05 0% 8.8
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3102 45-1 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.01 0% 9.2
11 Eagles SC 3102 25-3 31.00 LWL +0.61 -0.10 0% 10.0
12 Legends FC Del Mar 3021 24-2 20.67 DLD -0.42 +0.14 0% 11.9
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5104 515-10 30.60 LLLWL +0.58 -0.15 0% 12.9
14 Arizona Arsenal 4013 49-5 10.25 LLLD -0.22 +0.14 0% 13.6
15 LA Breakers FC 4013 39-6 10.25 LDLL +0.60 -0.12 0% 12.8
16 Phoenix Rising FC 3003 010-10 00.00 LLL +0.22 +0.09 0% 16.2
17 Sporting California USA 4004 114-13 00.00 LLLL +1.33 -0.34 0% 15.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.