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Legends FC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU13 · 17 teams · Legends FC (CA) (all teams)

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3rd
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+8 goal diff · 8–0
WWWWlast 4
87% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.9
-0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Legends FC
3rd · 3.00 PPG
vs
Rebels SC
8th · 1.33 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 23 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.5 for, 0.4 against · 2.62 expected points)

Season so farLegends FCRebels SC
Position3rd8th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-01-1-1
Points per game3.001.33
Goals for / game2.00.3
Goals against / game0.02.3
Clean sheets42
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W WW L D
Biggest win4–0 at Eagles SC1–0 vs Arizona Arsenal
Worst loss—0–7 vs Slammers FC HB Koge
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.08-0.99
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.26+0.08

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Rebels SC average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Rebels SC concede 2.3/game; worst result 0–7 vs Slammers FC HB Koge.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 83% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • What a win does
    Slammers FC HB Koge sit 2nd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Slammers FC HB Koge on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rebels SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC – Rebels SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 3rd— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.40 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

17% finish 1st
87% top 4
13% below the top 4
2.9 average finish
  1. 1st 17%
  2. 2nd 25%
  3. 3rd 28%
  4. 4th 17%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.48) Win next game
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.35) Win next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC to Rebels SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+6.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 1–4 7–0 Legends FC 3rd Sporting California… 17th Slammers FC HB Koge 2nd Rebels SC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.00 · 12th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
01:00 PM
no score posted
Beach Futbol Club
9th · 1-1-2 · GD +1
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–0 1.85 2.77 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Rebels SC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -6
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
2–0 2.62 2.75 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
06:15 PM
LAFC
4th · 4-0-0 · GD +7
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
37%
0–0 1.43 2.56 Upside
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM
LA Breakers FC
15th · 0-1-3 · GD -6
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.53 2.56 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
1–0 2.30 2.53 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–0 1.40 2.41 Upside
Sat Apr 10
11:00 AM
San Diego Surf
1st · 2-0-0 · GD +15
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.06 2.29 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.79 2.33 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
1–0 2.38 2.34 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
6th · 4-0-1 · GD +5
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–0 1.71 2.29 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
2–0 2.42 2.30 Bank it
Sun May 16
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
13th · 1-0-4 · GD -10
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
2–0 2.52 2.31 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 2200 161+15 63.00 WW -1.23 +0.01 97% 1.8
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 131+12 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.16 91% 2.6
3 Legends FC 4400 80+8 123.00 WWWW -0.26 -0.00 87% 2.9
4 LAFC 4400 81+7 123.00 WWWW -0.74 +0.18 62% 4.0
5 LV Heat Surf 5401 92+7 122.40 WWWLW -0.31 +0.10 40% 4.7
6 SLAMMERS FC 5401 94+5 122.40 WWWLW -0.22 +0.08 20% 5.5
7 Blues 2101 21+1 31.50 WL -0.16 +0.03 2% 7.7
8 Rebels SC 3111 17-6 41.33 DLW +0.08 +0.07 0% 12.9
9 Beach Futbol Club 4112 43+1 41.00 LDWL -0.01 +0.05 0% 8.9
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3102 45-1 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.01 1% 9.2
11 Eagles SC 3102 25-3 31.00 LWL +0.61 -0.10 0% 10.2
12 Legends FC Del Mar 3021 24-2 20.67 DLD -0.42 +0.14 0% 11.9
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5104 515-10 30.60 LLLWL +0.58 -0.15 0% 12.7
14 Arizona Arsenal 4013 49-5 10.25 LLLD -0.22 +0.14 0% 13.6
15 LA Breakers FC 4013 39-6 10.25 LDLL +0.60 -0.12 0% 12.8
16 Phoenix Rising FC 3003 010-10 00.00 LLL +0.22 +0.09 0% 16.2
17 Sporting California USA 4004 114-13 00.00 LLLL +1.33 -0.34 0% 15.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.