TableChase Clubs

San Diego Surf

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU13 · 17 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 51 minutes ago.
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1st
2-0-0 record · 2 played
3.00 points per game
+15 goal diff · 16–1
WWlast 2
96% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.9
-1.23 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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San Diego Surf
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Eagles SC
11th · 1.00 PPG

Pleasant Valley Fields, Field 19 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.0 against · 2.65 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego SurfEagles SC
Position1st11th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-01-0-2
Points per game3.001.00
Goals for / game8.00.7
Goals against / game0.51.7
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W WL W L
Biggest win10–1 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ2–0 vs Pateadores Soccer Club
Worst loss—0–4 vs Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.52-0.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.23+0.61

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Eagles SC average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 85% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Pleasant Valley Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eagles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Eagles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
6th▼ down 5 5th▼ down 4 6th▼ down 5
Loss
2.00 PPG
6th▼ down 5 5th▼ down 4 6th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

50% finish 1st
96% top 4
4% below the top 4
1.9 average finish
  1. 1st 50%
  2. 2nd 27%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Eagles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
0 favour them
+8.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–0 0–2 4–0 10–1 1–2 1–0 San Diego Surf 1st Sporting California… 17th Utah Royals FC-AZ 13th Legends FC 3rd LAFC 4th Eagles SC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 11th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Eagles SC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.65 2.88 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Rebels SC
8th · 1-1-1 · GD -6
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.92 2.89 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -2
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.78 2.87 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-1-3 · GD -5
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–1 2.81 2.86 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
5–0 2.95 2.87 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
11:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
9th · 1-1-2 · GD +1
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.49 2.82 Bank it
Sun Mar 28
04:00 PM
Slammers FC HB Koge
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Away far trip
Saddleback College · turf
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.41 2.67 Upside
Sat Apr 10
11:00 AM
Legends FC
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +8
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
1–1 1.71 2.57 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
SLAMMERS FC
6th · 4-0-1 · GD +5
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–1 2.35 2.55 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
LV Heat Surf
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +7
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.05 2.51 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
LAFC
4th · 4-0-0 · GD +7
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.74 2.45 Swing game
Sat May 8
11:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
15th · 0-1-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.78 2.47 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.56 2.48 Bank it
Sun May 23
11:00 AM
Blues
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.48 2.48 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 San Diego Surf 2200 161+15 63.00 WW -1.23 +0.01 96% 1.9
2 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 131+12 123.00 WWWW -0.81 +0.16 90% 2.6
3 Legends FC 4400 80+8 123.00 WWWW -0.26 -0.00 87% 2.9
4 LAFC 4400 81+7 123.00 WWWW -0.74 +0.18 61% 4.0
5 LV Heat Surf 5401 92+7 122.40 WWWLW -0.31 +0.10 40% 4.8
6 SLAMMERS FC 5401 94+5 122.40 WWWLW -0.22 +0.08 22% 5.5
7 Blues 2101 21+1 31.50 WL -0.16 +0.03 2% 7.8
8 Rebels SC 3111 17-6 41.33 DLW +0.08 +0.07 0% 13.0
9 Beach Futbol Club 4112 43+1 41.00 LDWL -0.01 +0.05 0% 8.8
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3102 45-1 31.00 LLW +0.12 -0.01 0% 9.2
11 Eagles SC 3102 25-3 31.00 LWL +0.61 -0.10 0% 10.1
12 Legends FC Del Mar 3021 24-2 20.67 DLD -0.42 +0.14 0% 11.9
13 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5104 515-10 30.60 LLLWL +0.58 -0.15 0% 12.7
14 Arizona Arsenal 4013 49-5 10.25 LLLD -0.22 +0.14 0% 13.5
15 LA Breakers FC 4013 39-6 10.25 LDLL +0.60 -0.12 0% 12.7
16 Phoenix Rising FC 3003 010-10 00.00 LLL +0.22 +0.09 0% 16.2
17 Sporting California USA 4004 114-13 00.00 LLLL +1.33 -0.34 0% 15.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.